Weekly structural research ยท JKT ยท Basic Materials

MINE Stage Analysis

Sinar Terang Mandiri Tbk.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 274.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^JKSE
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 27โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 45/100directional strength
Maturity 17/100lifecycle context
Confidence 80/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -34.1%IDR 415.55 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
View chart values ยท 80 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25274.00277.07-8.406194200Rotation Up2745
2026-09-18306.00โ€”โ€”20898900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-09-11286.00โ€”โ€”9553300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-09-04284.00โ€”โ€”31157000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-28236.00โ€”โ€”3764600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-21240.00โ€”โ€”968500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-14226.00โ€”โ€”334200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-07234.00โ€”โ€”769900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-31222.00โ€”โ€”1122100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-24216.00โ€”โ€”767600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-17226.00โ€”โ€”1148500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-10218.00โ€”โ€”239400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-03212.00โ€”โ€”886300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-26206.00โ€”โ€”940200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-19218.00โ€”โ€”553500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-12216.00โ€”โ€”1147300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-05204.00โ€”โ€”886000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-29242.00โ€”โ€”2624500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-22260.00โ€”โ€”4181500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-15294.00โ€”โ€”2551100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-08336.00โ€”โ€”1512800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-01352.00โ€”โ€”4416300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-24354.00โ€”โ€”3554300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-17384.00โ€”โ€”2294400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-10352.00โ€”โ€”654600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-03340.00โ€”โ€”371700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-27342.00โ€”โ€”628800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-20344.00โ€”โ€”1384000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-13330.00โ€”โ€”4766200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-06358.00โ€”โ€”10164700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-27428.00โ€”โ€”26246500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-20440.00โ€”โ€”8107800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-13444.00โ€”โ€”12808000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-06418.00โ€”โ€”7642200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-30452.00โ€”โ€”10498200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-23496.00โ€”โ€”8282300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-16515.00โ€”โ€”21455800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-09482.00โ€”โ€”19868400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-02466.00โ€”โ€”1848200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-26462.00โ€”โ€”5855200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-19458.00โ€”โ€”10333900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-12454.00โ€”โ€”13426700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-05462.00โ€”โ€”13935800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-28476.00โ€”โ€”16044400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-21480.00โ€”โ€”14195000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-14488.00โ€”โ€”14172700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-07486.00โ€”โ€”17982800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-31496.00โ€”โ€”19129100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-24500.00โ€”โ€”31288100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-17476.00โ€”โ€”19303800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-10510.00โ€”โ€”23111400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-03535.00โ€”โ€”27660100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-26570.00โ€”โ€”26450500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-19550.00โ€”โ€”26743300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-12600.00โ€”โ€”31347800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-05570.00โ€”โ€”47303000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-29545.00โ€”โ€”39303200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-22575.00โ€”โ€”162321500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-15505.00โ€”โ€”34982000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-08476.00โ€”โ€”33570200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-01488.00โ€”โ€”22546100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-25500.00โ€”โ€”27543400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-18496.00โ€”โ€”20061400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-11515.00โ€”โ€”36228400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-04525.00โ€”โ€”25530800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27520.00โ€”โ€”20494500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20550.00โ€”โ€”124151200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13510.00โ€”โ€”39607200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-06525.00โ€”โ€”70269600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-30492.00โ€”โ€”8079100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23500.00โ€”โ€”42339000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16510.00โ€”โ€”17924400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09510.00โ€”โ€”33274900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02525.00โ€”โ€”67244800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25555.00โ€”โ€”170486700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18474.00โ€”โ€”30599700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11488.00โ€”โ€”49233600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28476.00โ€”โ€”67636300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21470.00โ€”โ€”499639100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14488.00โ€”โ€”540637200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-1.1%
Trend directionFalling-20.0%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-34.1%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+20.0%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-8.4%
Relative strength directionImproving+28.8%
Price momentumNegative-19.9%
Volume balanceDemand-led6.03ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

27 / ยฑ100

Recent comparison unavailable

Energy

45 /100

Recent comparison unavailable

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance31
Rotation Up68
Upward Expansion41
Deceleration42
Rotation Down14
Downward Expansion25

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2025-03-14 to 2026-09-25 ยท 1 classified observations out of 80 shown.

Rotation Up 100%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-09-252026-09-25New+0.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing81
Stage 2 ยท Advancing10
Stage 3 ยท Distribution8
Stage 4 ยท Declining90

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
37/100
Current Relative Strength
-8.40
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-19.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-7.8%
Basic Materials regime cohort
82th percentile28 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.37ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume6.03ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity IDR 283.73rising
Slow Activity IDR 256.93falling
Trend Reference IDR 277.07-1.1% close margin
Current Fair Value IDR 415.55-34.1% close margin
Structural low IDR 200.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +8.6%
Annualized volatility +55.5%
From structural high -54.3%
From structural low +37.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^JKSE Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context