Weekly structural research · SHZ · Technology

002963 Stage Analysis

Haoersai Technology Group Corp., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 21.59Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 64/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +59.3%CNY 13.56 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	21.59	17.76	39.83	18421600	Upward Expansion	61	64
2026-09-25	23.51	17.55	49.03	42126638	Upward Expansion	77	72
2026-09-18	20.56	17.31	28.90	31043351	Upward Expansion	61	56
2026-09-11	20.13	17.14	28.77	52871437	Upward Expansion	50	40
2026-09-04	20.14	16.99	29.38	83226862	Deceleration	49	32
2026-08-28	19.15	16.81	20.18	19354710	Deceleration	43	28
2026-08-21	17.46	16.71	8.96	3338800	Deceleration	13	8
2026-08-14	17.83	16.63	9.45	9516300	Deceleration	-9	19
2026-08-07	18.50	16.54	13.92	19225324	Upward Expansion	-7	25
2026-07-31	13.22	16.42	-14.12	3335700	Upward Expansion	-33	40
2026-07-24	13.14	16.47	-16.15	4586200	Upward Expansion	-1	16
2026-07-17	15.00	16.54	-4.19	6039000	Upward Expansion	24	22
2026-07-10	19.45	16.52	12.93	6024900	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-07-03	21.10	16.38	18.30	5028100	Upward Expansion	67	74
2026-06-26	23.01	16.19	27.82	8350816	Upward Expansion	84	68
2026-06-19	19.49	15.96	7.16	29820713	Upward Expansion	67	39
2026-06-12	19.17	15.95	13.01	6714100	Upward Expansion	69	41
2026-06-05	16.13	15.88	-6.95	3010800	Upward Expansion	56	46
2026-05-29	16.74	15.89	-5.22	20020715	Upward Expansion	59	66
2026-05-22	19.20	15.95	8.45	39337244	Rotation Up	72	77
2026-05-15	19.42	15.84	10.15	24941825	Rotation Up	50	64
2026-05-08	17.76	15.66	0.79	14216948	Balance	29	30
2026-05-01	17.10	15.51	0.04	30878100	Balance	19	15
2026-04-24	14.72	15.37	-12.82	25312300	Rotation Down	-49	28
2026-04-17	15.80	15.30	-6.21	21029111	Rotation Down	-11	24
2026-04-10	14.38	15.22	-11.17	12243332	Rotation Down	-26	39
2026-04-03	13.79	15.18	-8.81	15207300	Balance	-33	38
2026-03-27	14.79	15.14	-5.10	22170759	Balance	-19	13
2026-03-20	14.58	15.09	-7.20	15672500	Balance	8	4
2026-03-13	15.81	15.05	-2.34	15783300	Deceleration	45	24
2026-03-06	15.54	14.98	-3.21	23705350	Deceleration	34	19
2026-02-27	16.25	14.91	-0.99	14131900	Deceleration	43	21
2026-02-13	15.32	14.81	-3.89	13336900	Deceleration	30	16
2026-02-06	15.58	14.73	-0.83	21308910	Deceleration	29	15
2026-01-30	14.79	14.65	-7.74	27532700	Deceleration	20	11
2026-01-23	16.25	14.59	-0.29	28544600	Deceleration	38	17
2026-01-16	15.05	14.46	-6.53	19024700	Deceleration	12	9
2026-01-09	15.03	14.34	-5.59	19958210	Deceleration	12	10
2026-01-02	14.88	14.23	-2.38	12021183	Deceleration	11	14
2025-12-26	14.95	14.14	-2.40	17770303	Deceleration	23	20
2025-12-19	15.14	14.03	2.03	19938337	Deceleration	26	23
2025-12-12	14.25	13.91	-4.85	18358952	Deceleration	24	22
2025-12-05	15.39	13.82	3.42	23911104	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-11-28	15.33	13.71	4.34	44450417	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-11-21	16.21	13.56	14.31	54855106	Upward Expansion	64	54
2025-11-14	19.17	13.38	28.63	20662254	Upward Expansion	85	90
2025-11-07	17.00	13.09	13.15	24926230	Upward Expansion	70	83
2025-10-31	16.58	12.86	10.96	43367819	Upward Expansion	69	81
2025-10-24	18.56	12.68	25.39	36920901	Upward Expansion	91	88
2025-10-17	15.92	12.42	13.18	47202064	Upward Expansion	81	64
2025-10-10	13.79	12.28	-6.75	14266678	Deceleration	57	28
2025-10-03	13.27	12.22	-11.48	5475864	Deceleration	39	20
2025-09-26	12.85	12.16	-12.35	17207270	Deceleration	34	17
2025-09-19	12.72	12.11	-12.50	32198082	Deceleration	35	17
2025-09-12	13.52	12.07	-6.26	55097809	Deceleration	47	27
2025-09-05	13.00	11.99	-7.67	57797501	Upward Expansion	41	24
2025-08-29	12.61	11.93	-11.37	38173379	Upward Expansion	47	35
2025-08-22	13.50	11.86	-1.27	26383457	Upward Expansion	66	70
2025-08-15	13.13	11.78	0.35	28068040	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-08-08	13.78	11.70	10.01	12572632	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-08-01	13.52	11.58	9.35	16258212	Upward Expansion	72	73
2025-07-25	13.27	11.47	5.73	11990272	Upward Expansion	69	73
2025-07-18	12.94	11.48	5.59	11390400	Upward Expansion	66	70
2025-07-11	13.08	11.46	9.09	13149309	Upward Expansion	71	67
2025-07-04	12.99	11.45	10.33	16805068	Rotation Up	70	52
2025-06-27	12.46	11.44	7.35	13109676	Rotation Up	37	33
2025-06-20	11.41	11.43	2.09	11233400	Rotation Up	24	21
2025-06-13	11.82	11.44	4.56	14219412	Rotation Up	27	31
2025-06-06	12.14	11.44	6.98	11523300	Balance	33	35
2025-05-30	11.69	11.43	4.77	14523275	Balance	16	20
2025-05-23	11.47	11.42	1.78	27833047	Balance	-0	11
2025-05-16	11.41	11.43	0.69	48979164	Balance	-23	15
2025-05-09	12.22	11.46	8.34	34878275	Downward Expansion	-12	6
2025-05-02	10.88	11.42	-1.16	5109403	Downward Expansion	-56	58
2025-04-25	10.59	11.43	-4.05	7565901	Downward Expansion	-56	63
2025-04-18	10.44	11.42	-4.15	10905853	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2025-04-11	10.18	11.39	-7.07	15353509	Balance	-66	52
2025-04-04	11.12	11.36	-3.90	8366800	Balance	-6	5
2025-03-28	10.95	11.30	-7.86	14946559	Balance	21	13
2025-03-21	11.75	11.26	-2.52	13784000	Balance	29	18
2025-03-14	11.88	11.18	-4.23	15260755	Deceleration	38	20
2025-03-07	11.55	11.11	-5.81	15668500	Deceleration	30	15
2025-02-28	11.34	11.06	-5.60	20158800	Deceleration	24	13
2025-02-21	11.33	11.02	-9.03	16993901	Deceleration	20	10
2025-02-14	11.20	10.97	-8.27	12376100	Deceleration	8	9
2025-02-07	11.22	10.92	-6.51	9519049	Deceleration	-14	22
2025-01-31	10.62	10.90	-8.26	3695125	Deceleration	-17	30
2025-01-24	10.99	10.87	-7.13	14261500	Deceleration	-14	26
2025-01-17	10.66	10.84	-9.58	12294284	Upward Expansion	4	16
2025-01-10	10.25	10.82	-10.73	21472900	Upward Expansion	12	12
2025-01-03	10.31	10.80	-11.94	49837496	Upward Expansion	25	19
2024-12-27	13.54	10.78	6.36	54052362	Upward Expansion	72	50
2024-12-20	12.44	10.70	-2.70	23277100	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-12-13	12.77	10.66	-1.42	15755406	Upward Expansion	71	56
2024-12-06	12.49	10.61	-4.84	16323700	Upward Expansion	69	49
2024-11-29	12.22	10.56	-6.02	11828705	Upward Expansion	68	48
2024-11-22	11.70	10.51	-9.09	14570297	Upward Expansion	59	43
2024-11-15	11.81	10.47	-11.48	13645978	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-11-08	11.86	10.41	-14.95	14996867	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-11-01	11.27	10.38	-14.50	22883495	Rotation Up	64	74
2024-10-25	11.90	10.41	-11.62	30831193	Rotation Up	45	69
2024-10-18	12.30	10.46	-6.76	63661339	Rotation Up	44	57
2024-10-11	10.95	10.43	-14.76	19617545	Downward Expansion	24	28
2024-10-04	11.23	10.43	-16.91	5739900	Downward Expansion	9	14
2024-09-27	10.34	10.40	-15.70	10350500	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2024-09-20	9.45	10.41	-9.64	3373400	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2024-09-13	9.33	10.45	-10.33	5692500	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-09-06	9.39	10.43	-11.67	7521900	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2024-08-30	9.73	10.47	-11.06	6757600	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2024-08-23	9.33	10.61	-13.27	7474200	Downward Expansion	-58	30
2024-08-16	9.85	10.77	-10.51	13307206	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2024-08-09	10.12	10.93	-8.78	11332353	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2024-08-02	10.03	11.10	-11.47	19661403	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2024-07-26	9.78	11.27	-14.30	25928893	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2024-07-19	9.69	11.44	-18.21	35749291	Downward Expansion	-58	33
2024-07-12	10.56	11.63	-10.72	19545285	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2024-07-05	9.80	11.76	-15.73	12335426	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-06-28	10.06	11.97	-15.18	22545047	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2024-06-21	10.21	12.14	-16.11	37099336	Downward Expansion	-53	41
2024-06-14	9.62	12.31	-22.73	8009200	Downward Expansion	-63	43
2024-06-07	9.53	12.50	-23.70	36076648	Downward Expansion	-64	33
2024-05-31	11.38	12.72	-10.26	10874100	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2024-05-24	10.97	12.81	-14.04	7548200	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2024-05-17	11.46	12.91	-12.96	8909706	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2024-05-10	10.93	12.99	-17.25	11994800	Downward Expansion	-54	44
2024-05-03	10.82	13.10	-16.99	5259757	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2024-04-26	10.50	13.21	-18.33	14209600	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-04-19	9.79	13.32	-22.36	20686992	Downward Expansion	-62	31
2024-04-12	10.94	13.54	-12.84	36400082	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-04-05	12.37	13.66	-4.72	47402828	Downward Expansion	-31	22
2024-03-29	13.21	13.70	3.52	12654992	Downward Expansion	-36	26
2024-03-22	11.43	13.74	-11.79	8413843	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-03-15	11.15	13.84	-14.41	10244493	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-03-08	10.28	13.96	-19.10	9533800	Downward Expansion	-66	85
2024-03-01	10.59	14.12	-17.49	16907062	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2024-02-23	10.74	14.26	-13.12	12908655	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2024-02-09	8.66	14.39	-28.00	15444730	Downward Expansion	-95	94
2024-02-02	10.69	14.58	-3.11	11687244	Downward Expansion	-87	79
2024-01-26	13.84	14.70	15.73	10365600	Balance	-21	22
2024-01-19	13.98	14.70	17.26	8044386	Balance	-18	13
2024-01-12	14.82	14.70	21.98	6513971	Upward Expansion	26	12
2024-01-05	15.16	14.66	23.91	7113500	Upward Expansion	33	15
2023-12-29	15.24	14.62	20.04	6141070	Upward Expansion	33	16
2023-12-22	14.83	14.57	21.23	7305200	Upward Expansion	34	18
2023-12-15	15.22	14.54	23.01	9096900	Upward Expansion	46	25
2023-12-08	14.70	14.50	17.39	20990297	Upward Expansion	48	27
2023-12-01	16.01	14.47	26.24	28774439	Upward Expansion	62	52
2023-11-24	15.14	14.39	18.79	15181077	Upward Expansion	51	46
2023-11-17	15.38	14.31	19.53	26801823	Balance	52	42
2023-11-10	15.19	14.24	18.78	54043692	Balance	47	37
2023-11-03	16.24	14.19	29.33	25648323	Balance	60	32
2023-10-27	14.14	14.10	14.48	8706173	Balance	-14	18
2023-10-20	13.79	14.08	14.77	6912241	Balance	-17	20
2023-10-13	13.82	14.08	10.02	8314733	Balance	1	12
2023-09-29	14.19	14.10	12.98	10817841	Upward Expansion	26	16
2023-09-22	14.19	14.11	12.85	17477699	Upward Expansion	38	22

Price vs TrendAbove+21.6%

Trend directionRising+7.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+59.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+39.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+21.5%

Price momentumPositive+56.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.97×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

61 / ±100

+12.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

64 /100

+31.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

002963 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance18

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration43

Rotation Down10

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+7.3%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+13.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-08-07	Developing	+10.5%
Rotation Up	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	-1.1%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-08	New	+3.9%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-04-24	New	+2.4%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-04-03	New	-5.4%
Deceleration	2025-12-12	2026-03-13	Established	+10.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-17	2025-12-05	Developing	-3.3%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-10	Developing	+2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-09-05	Developing	-0.6%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-07-04	New	+9.9%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-06	New	+6.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+17.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: 39.83
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +56.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +60.0%
Technology regime cohort: 57th percentile51 in cohort

Test 002963 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.90×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.97×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 002963 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 21.60rising

Slow Activity CNY 18.66rising

Trend Reference CNY 17.76+21.6% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 13.56+59.3% close margin

Structural low CNY 12.34shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +13.8%

Annualized volatility +85.8%

From structural high -12.2%

From structural low +75.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	-1.5%-42.9% to +37.5%	+40.0%	+40.0%	+0.3%	+64.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-4.8%-31.3% to +14.4%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-4.8%	+10.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+0.5%-29.2% to +14.9%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+4.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-3.5%-21.3% to +21.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

002963 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map