Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Defensive

1225 Stage Analysis

Formosa Oilseed Processing Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 24.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 62/100directional strength

Maturity 59/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -52.3%TWD 50.27 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	24.00	28.32	-40.50	355121	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2026-10-02	24.20	28.60	-39.89	160401	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2026-09-25	24.45	28.89	-39.58	93188	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-09-18	24.60	29.07	-39.03	450981	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2026-09-11	24.30	29.21	-39.35	395769	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2026-09-04	25.00	29.34	-38.97	210001	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-08-28	25.45	29.45	-38.48	292082	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2026-08-21	24.75	29.55	-39.57	39001	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2026-08-14	24.75	29.68	-41.15	74000	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-08-07	24.20	29.78	-41.29	215001	Downward Expansion	-88	94
2026-07-31	25.80	29.93	-36.65	380170	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2026-07-24	26.65	30.04	-36.18	91000	Rotation Down	-75	81
2026-07-17	26.85	30.14	-35.01	126422	Rotation Down	-47	63
2026-07-10	28.10	30.24	-36.78	0	Balance	-38	32
2026-07-03	28.65	30.33	-38.35	1687762	Balance	-23	12
2026-06-26	29.40	30.39	-34.55	857666	Balance	-8	6
2026-06-19	32.25	30.42	-31.92	2938495	Balance	36	15
2026-06-12	31.15	30.38	-31.56	2532932	Balance	-12	25
2026-06-05	29.50	30.37	-37.17	845006	Balance	-20	30
2026-05-29	29.25	30.41	-37.98	792753	Balance	-20	24
2026-05-22	29.45	30.46	-34.68	643099	Balance	-7	14
2026-05-15	29.25	30.49	-34.09	2536320	Upward Expansion	14	13
2026-05-08	32.00	30.53	-29.43	1861031	Upward Expansion	40	25
2026-05-01	32.00	30.48	-25.34	1669631	Upward Expansion	44	30
2026-04-24	31.50	30.38	-27.26	1649504	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-04-17	33.30	30.32	-19.54	1598802	Upward Expansion	70	50
2026-04-10	32.65	30.19	-18.75	1127359	Upward Expansion	67	51
2026-04-03	31.90	30.06	-14.25	619441	Upward Expansion	63	67
2026-03-27	32.30	29.97	-15.42	1546731	Upward Expansion	67	72
2026-03-20	31.95	29.86	-18.31	1054917	Rotation Up	64	61
2026-03-13	32.55	29.76	-17.38	5045302	Rotation Up	66	53
2026-03-06	32.80	29.69	-18.39	4569350	Rotation Up	32	33
2026-02-27	29.70	29.53	-30.88	976483	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2026-02-13	28.85	29.50	-30.51	563593	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-02-06	28.20	29.48	-29.40	784337	Rotation Down	-64	62
2026-01-30	28.35	29.49	-30.74	669974	Rotation Down	-35	59
2026-01-23	28.45	29.53	-31.27	728268	Rotation Down	-35	61
2026-01-16	28.55	29.60	-30.81	589812	Rotation Down	-26	57
2026-01-09	27.90	29.58	-30.90	824232	Rotation Down	-39	56
2026-01-02	28.55	29.59	-27.77	1332023	Balance	-31	37
2025-12-26	29.30	29.57	-24.71	262373	Balance	2	11
2025-12-19	29.50	29.52	-23.02	543191	Balance	19	13
2025-12-12	30.05	29.47	-24.47	355628	Upward Expansion	34	16
2025-12-05	30.55	29.40	-24.78	562417	Upward Expansion	39	22
2025-11-28	30.45	29.32	-26.30	661461	Upward Expansion	51	29
2025-11-21	30.45	29.23	-25.03	731077	Upward Expansion	54	32
2025-11-14	30.90	29.15	-28.53	887643	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-11-07	31.05	29.05	-30.80	768803	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-10-31	30.60	28.95	-35.15	594331	Upward Expansion	54	46
2025-10-24	30.70	28.86	-35.41	644163	Upward Expansion	58	52
2025-10-17	30.40	28.96	-37.52	1373996	Balance	55	47
2025-10-10	30.45	29.16	-39.56	413176	Balance	29	38
2025-10-03	30.45	29.36	-41.06	1401094	Balance	29	26
2025-09-26	28.95	29.73	-44.04	3328358	Balance	-7	4
2025-09-19	29.67	30.20	-45.43	1182214	Balance	-11	6
2025-09-12	29.58	30.79	-48.47	1055538	Balance	-12	7
2025-09-05	28.82	31.32	-50.27	557665	Balance	-21	12
2025-08-29	29.20	31.86	-51.29	1087706	Balance	-19	11
2025-08-22	28.78	32.33	-53.12	927746	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2025-08-15	29.06	32.80	-55.57	1025690	Downward Expansion	-26	19
2025-08-08	30.38	33.31	-54.72	1260879	Downward Expansion	-27	26
2025-08-01	28.19	33.54	-58.26	679837	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2025-07-25	28.63	34.00	-58.65	853565	Downward Expansion	-41	46
2025-07-18	28.30	34.63	-60.14	762100	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2025-07-11	28.35	35.60	-59.97	1576874	Downward Expansion	-56	54
2025-07-04	29.58	37.10	-58.83	2719149	Downward Expansion	-50	56
2025-06-27	30.76	38.63	-57.97	8284763	Downward Expansion	-50	58
2025-06-20	27.97	40.06	-61.41	0	Downward Expansion	-57	85
2025-06-13	27.97	41.65	-62.03	0	Downward Expansion	-57	85
2025-06-06	27.97	43.42	-61.90	0	Downward Expansion	-57	76
2025-05-30	27.97	45.26	-61.94	0	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2025-05-23	27.97	47.40	-62.90	0	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2025-05-16	27.97	49.61	-63.61	0	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2025-05-09	27.97	52.04	-62.35	0	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2025-05-02	27.97	55.23	-62.44	0	Downward Expansion	-69	87
2025-04-25	27.97	58.80	-61.00	0	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2025-04-18	27.97	62.67	-60.32	0	Downward Expansion	-78	92
2025-04-11	27.97	67.39	-60.83	0	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2025-04-04	27.97	71.49	-64.30	14204321	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2025-03-28	33.68	75.57	-57.90	3608679	Downward Expansion	-80	74
2025-03-21	36.37	79.53	-56.01	12197120	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2025-03-14	36.46	83.29	-55.64	13237811	Downward Expansion	-78	67
2025-03-07	41.51	86.84	-51.10	4269373	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2025-02-28	43.07	89.68	-50.53	3108537	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2025-02-21	47.17	92.28	-47.60	12148183	Downward Expansion	-51	58
2025-02-14	45.52	94.56	-48.38	3448450	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2025-02-07	45.10	97.16	-49.78	3935574	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2025-01-24	43.40	99.63	-51.99	6673004	Downward Expansion	-66	85
2025-01-17	42.93	101.36	-51.96	10617415	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2025-01-10	44.15	102.91	-50.53	10075503	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-01-03	37.27	104.31	-58.25	11341544	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2024-12-27	42.08	105.96	-53.89	11304022	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2024-12-20	47.55	107.41	-46.39	2313367	Downward Expansion	-90	94
2024-12-13	57.27	108.25	-37.09	1623274	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2024-12-06	73.59	108.61	-19.93	338694	Rotation Down	-70	70
2024-11-29	75.38	108.25	-14.45	558665	Rotation Down	-42	70
2024-11-22	73.78	107.69	-18.43	436355	Rotation Down	-48	77
2024-11-15	75.57	107.07	-15.72	427149	Rotation Down	-42	75
2024-11-08	81.14	106.34	-12.49	174585	Rotation Down	-40	75
2024-11-01	83.12	105.42	-7.09	591321	Rotation Down	-41	65
2024-10-25	92.08	104.39	0.73	1176819	Deceleration	-36	46
2024-10-18	94.34	103.07	3.00	936678	Deceleration	-16	34
2024-10-11	100.95	101.66	13.56	556732	Deceleration	6	21
2024-10-04	123.59	100.02	43.76	250347	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-09-27	134.91	97.62	55.27	596419	Upward Expansion	52	46
2024-09-20	144.35	94.83	73.59	775938	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-09-13	169.35	91.75	111.15	776178	Upward Expansion	86	73
2024-09-06	150.95	87.82	96.03	454825	Upward Expansion	70	73
2024-08-30	150.48	84.48	92.29	147556	Upward Expansion	74	70
2024-08-23	152.44	81.18	99.93	397792	Upward Expansion	83	73
2024-08-16	149.17	77.75	98.30	375367	Upward Expansion	88	74
2024-08-09	143.09	74.43	102.36	852324	Upward Expansion	90	75
2024-08-02	126.73	71.34	81.80	1051389	Upward Expansion	79	72
2024-07-26	121.11	68.78	73.00	455891	Upward Expansion	77	72
2024-07-19	115.50	66.45	62.20	500455	Rotation Up	74	71
2024-07-12	123.45	64.26	68.01	477384	Rotation Up	97	79
2024-07-05	119.24	61.87	67.24	1211585	Upward Expansion	99	80
2024-06-28	95.39	59.59	38.74	699444	Upward Expansion	90	78
2024-06-21	89.13	58.10	29.45	419229	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-06-14	86.42	56.81	30.53	242712	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-06-07	86.79	55.64	35.85	900378	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-05-31	85.57	54.40	39.27	639556	Upward Expansion	100	100
2024-05-24	72.57	53.21	16.81	486830	Upward Expansion	99	100
2024-05-17	68.09	52.48	11.39	351557	Upward Expansion	99	100
2024-05-10	62.75	51.90	5.36	382312	Upward Expansion	99	99
2024-05-03	58.73	51.49	0.23	181747	Upward Expansion	97	97
2024-04-26	55.09	51.22	-5.29	122826	Upward Expansion	85	83
2024-04-19	53.78	51.06	-5.12	149469	Upward Expansion	76	72
2024-04-12	53.40	50.92	-11.63	64270	Upward Expansion	73	64
2024-04-05	52.37	50.80	-12.09	16093	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-03-29	52.37	50.70	-12.33	92681	Upward Expansion	61	41
2024-03-22	51.91	50.59	-13.19	236674	Upward Expansion	55	35
2024-03-15	51.91	50.49	-11.13	520549	Upward Expansion	57	45
2024-03-08	51.44	50.35	-12.69	59696	Upward Expansion	53	48
2024-03-01	51.44	50.25	-9.16	63878	Upward Expansion	52	50
2024-02-23	51.81	50.17	-8.59	201248	Balance	58	47
2024-02-16	51.44	50.07	-8.18	51723	Balance	53	32
2024-02-09	50.88	49.99	-6.90	26806	Balance	32	13
2024-02-02	51.34	49.91	-6.09	75485	Balance	29	13
2024-01-26	49.66	49.81	-9.07	124714	Balance	4	12
2024-01-19	49.47	49.77	-8.13	169274	Balance	4	7
2024-01-12	50.41	49.76	-5.82	64395	Upward Expansion	29	15
2024-01-05	49.94	49.72	-7.05	18120	Upward Expansion	30	15
2023-12-29	51.16	49.68	-7.37	108037	Upward Expansion	54	29
2023-12-22	49.85	49.62	-8.36	52316	Upward Expansion	45	26
2023-12-15	51.63	49.64	-5.80	94055	Upward Expansion	62	47
2023-12-08	50.88	49.67	-5.87	75388	Balance	53	42
2023-12-01	50.88	49.71	-6.38	223009	Balance	54	30
2023-11-24	50.32	49.75	-6.84	50401	Balance	47	23
2023-11-17	51.34	49.81	-4.76	69015	Balance	37	22
2023-11-10	49.57	49.84	-5.37	42472	Balance	10	9
2023-11-03	49.94	49.98	-4.08	31224	Rotation Up	27	22
2023-10-27	50.60	50.07	-1.04	24848	Rotation Up	32	34
2023-10-20	50.60	50.08	-3.14	113705	Rotation Up	25	41
2023-10-13	50.60	50.08	-5.37	55391	Rotation Up	24	36
2023-10-06	50.50	50.02	-4.23	49326	Balance	24	26

Price vs TrendBelow-15.3%

Trend directionFalling-5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-52.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-40.5%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.7%

Price momentumNegative-26.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

+3.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

62 /100

-3.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1225 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance10

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration57

Rotation Down57

Downward Expansion87

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 2%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 31%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-09	Developing	-7.0%
Rotation Down	2026-07-17	2026-07-24	New	-0.7%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-07-10	Developing	-4.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-05-15	Developing	-9.4%
Rotation Up	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-2.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-02-27	New	+2.9%
Rotation Down	2026-01-09	2026-02-06	Developing	+1.1%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	-3.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-12-12	Developing	-2.1%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-10-17	Developing	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-08-22	Extended	-49.8%
Rotation Down	2024-11-01	2024-12-06	Developing	-11.5%
Deceleration	2024-10-11	2024-10-25	New	-8.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-10-04	Developing	+2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing60

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution14

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -40.50
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -26.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -65.7%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 68th percentile37 in cohort

Test 1225 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.57×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1225 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 24.24falling

Slow Activity TWD 26.65falling

Trend Reference TWD 28.32-15.3% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 50.27-52.3% close margin

Structural low TWD 23.55shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +25.4%

From structural high -33.3%

From structural low +1.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+0.1%-23.3% to +13.0%	+50.0%	+38.9%	-1.1%	+72.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+3.8%-36.5% to +18.2%	+71.4%	+28.6%	-10.0%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+3.7%-51.2% to +34.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-11.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+24.4%-48.5% to +148.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+42.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1225 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map