Weekly structural research · EBS · Consumer Cyclical

AUTN Stage Analysis

Autoneum Holding AG

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CHF 124.20Tenure NewBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 36−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 18/100directional strength

Maturity 34/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -1.9%CHF 126.58 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	124.20	118.38	-6.71	32294	Deceleration	36	18
2026-10-02	123.00	118.04	-7.29	33256	Deceleration	35	19
2026-09-25	123.60	117.80	-9.32	19547	Upward Expansion	38	21
2026-09-18	119.60	117.80	-11.89	19683	Upward Expansion	42	26
2026-09-11	123.00	117.96	-10.11	10044	Upward Expansion	57	39
2026-09-04	128.20	118.05	-11.05	4062	Upward Expansion	68	69
2026-08-28	126.80	117.92	-12.68	5411	Upward Expansion	62	72
2026-08-21	122.60	117.79	-16.52	3555	Rotation Up	58	58
2026-08-14	128.20	118.60	-12.92	3336	Rotation Up	41	53
2026-08-07	128.00	119.47	-14.48	4299	Rotation Up	40	32
2026-07-31	130.60	120.75	-12.11	12927	Rotation Up	-4	5
2026-07-24	109.00	121.83	-26.92	1774	Downward Expansion	-65	59
2026-07-17	107.20	123.61	-28.87	4607	Downward Expansion	-73	57
2026-07-10	112.20	125.45	-25.59	6640	Balance	-57	35
2026-07-03	118.00	127.16	-23.33	6226	Balance	-36	25
2026-06-26	111.20	128.37	-26.89	11267	Balance	-53	34
2026-06-19	116.80	129.56	-21.48	10059	Balance	-24	17
2026-06-12	117.20	130.46	-21.26	7476	Balance	-25	19
2026-06-05	116.80	131.41	-20.08	5297	Downward Expansion	-28	22
2026-05-29	118.80	132.38	-20.00	29056	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2026-05-22	116.00	133.61	-22.04	33718	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2026-05-15	116.60	134.94	-20.35	22220	Downward Expansion	-43	35
2026-05-08	117.60	136.16	-19.31	31269	Downward Expansion	-43	36
2026-05-01	114.00	137.18	-22.22	30360	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2026-04-24	117.50	138.48	-20.20	46018	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2026-04-17	118.28	139.57	-21.34	42810	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-04-10	117.11	140.98	-20.72	25872	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2026-04-03	112.83	142.36	-22.51	35994	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2026-03-27	110.30	143.84	-21.73	58495	Downward Expansion	-72	76
2026-03-20	106.02	145.31	-23.25	52404	Downward Expansion	-88	88
2026-03-13	114.00	146.75	-20.86	63290	Downward Expansion	-82	88
2026-03-06	115.95	147.80	-21.14	49377	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2026-02-27	123.53	148.79	-21.57	30626	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2026-02-20	124.51	149.35	-20.18	33972	Downward Expansion	-74	91
2026-02-13	125.67	150.25	-18.00	37079	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-02-06	124.31	150.82	-17.93	86038	Rotation Down	-85	81
2026-01-30	122.95	151.41	-17.33	55000	Rotation Down	-54	45
2026-01-23	146.88	151.84	-0.98	51435	Upward Expansion	15	10
2026-01-16	154.27	151.49	2.14	115042	Upward Expansion	56	40
2026-01-09	166.33	150.93	10.35	42633	Upward Expansion	74	79
2026-01-02	163.02	150.04	9.89	15960	Upward Expansion	67	77
2025-12-26	162.44	149.28	10.19	17187	Upward Expansion	67	72
2025-12-19	162.25	148.57	11.15	36478	Deceleration	67	59
2025-12-12	163.61	147.81	15.08	33242	Deceleration	56	36
2025-12-05	154.27	147.08	8.76	28867	Deceleration	22	17
2025-11-28	146.88	146.22	4.96	31367	Deceleration	4	21
2025-11-21	143.76	145.38	4.96	30211	Deceleration	-3	15
2025-11-14	145.90	144.51	7.08	22883	Deceleration	8	7
2025-11-07	145.90	143.20	10.60	18438	Deceleration	26	18
2025-10-31	155.63	141.89	19.32	27600	Deceleration	47	30
2025-10-24	156.02	139.96	17.18	25946	Deceleration	47	28
2025-10-17	153.10	138.52	14.93	25836	Deceleration	38	22
2025-10-10	148.04	137.36	13.25	24023	Upward Expansion	44	32
2025-10-03	153.10	136.42	17.45	25087	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-09-26	150.18	135.45	21.48	28016	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-09-19	160.69	134.59	28.83	35864	Upward Expansion	78	85
2025-09-12	158.35	133.45	27.07	24778	Upward Expansion	78	81
2025-09-05	157.19	132.31	25.26	53645	Upward Expansion	80	78
2025-08-29	154.46	130.95	25.79	30662	Upward Expansion	81	67
2025-08-22	149.21	129.83	21.51	14622	Upward Expansion	72	55
2025-08-15	145.52	128.97	20.98	23387	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-08-08	145.71	128.09	23.81	27975	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-08-01	140.46	127.11	20.12	22570	Upward Expansion	62	63
2025-07-25	151.35	126.19	28.48	26478	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-07-18	142.79	124.88	21.35	22975	Upward Expansion	68	52
2025-07-11	142.01	123.80	21.53	64640	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-07-04	135.98	122.66	16.39	28437	Upward Expansion	48	42
2025-06-27	136.18	121.55	16.68	53171	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-06-20	137.54	120.27	19.18	50886	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-06-13	139.68	118.94	18.63	12864	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-06-06	140.07	117.59	17.08	18102	Upward Expansion	70	86
2025-05-30	141.24	116.26	19.52	23457	Upward Expansion	77	88
2025-05-23	139.48	115.22	18.31	23139	Upward Expansion	80	85
2025-05-16	141.62	114.39	18.64	40609	Balance	84	66
2025-05-09	128.59	113.32	9.87	26840	Balance	57	37
2025-05-02	121.59	112.76	2.13	14279	Rotation Down	37	16
2025-04-25	117.70	112.37	0.92	18959	Rotation Down	-11	26
2025-04-18	106.61	112.25	-6.89	24070	Rotation Down	-23	40
2025-04-11	106.61	112.30	-4.10	89482	Rotation Down	-25	36
2025-04-04	97.85	112.39	-15.68	64885	Rotation Down	-42	40
2025-03-28	112.81	112.74	-12.64	42419	Deceleration	22	19
2025-03-21	118.31	112.89	-10.72	26860	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-03-14	119.64	112.86	-9.23	33523	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-03-07	124.00	112.84	-7.51	37771	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-02-28	124.38	112.78	-6.87	37344	Upward Expansion	67	61
2025-02-21	126.46	112.78	-5.08	33673	Rotation Up	78	72
2025-02-14	124.19	113.04	-6.13	28740	Rotation Up	51	69
2025-02-07	116.60	113.07	-10.27	24911	Rotation Up	38	65
2025-01-31	120.77	113.45	-7.28	35442	Rotation Up	43	69
2025-01-24	123.43	113.62	-3.02	28422	Rotation Up	47	68
2025-01-17	119.07	113.61	-4.26	30736	Rotation Up	37	47
2025-01-10	116.41	113.71	-4.86	38062	Downward Expansion	13	28
2025-01-03	112.81	114.05	-6.48	12591	Downward Expansion	-9	23
2024-12-27	111.86	114.70	-7.15	11300	Downward Expansion	-20	22
2024-12-20	110.53	115.60	-6.91	42540	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2024-12-13	107.88	116.73	-11.82	26741	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-12-06	102.57	117.84	-17.08	42993	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2024-11-29	97.83	119.27	-21.08	29659	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2024-11-22	97.64	120.72	-21.20	49993	Downward Expansion	-78	81
2024-11-15	99.16	122.23	-19.59	30834	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2024-11-08	100.11	123.77	-20.19	36294	Downward Expansion	-81	55
2024-11-01	110.16	125.44	-13.62	42725	Downward Expansion	-50	36
2024-10-25	114.52	126.86	-11.80	45834	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2024-10-18	109.59	128.07	-16.53	39334	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2024-10-11	111.67	129.34	-13.81	12388	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-10-04	109.97	130.19	-14.16	17934	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2024-09-27	113.95	130.56	-12.84	21790	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2024-09-20	108.26	130.82	-15.24	18434	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2024-09-13	109.21	131.23	-15.33	17174	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2024-09-06	108.45	131.55	-15.13	21528	Downward Expansion	-85	85
2024-08-30	117.17	131.77	-12.45	26464	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2024-08-23	117.55	131.80	-11.74	24128	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-08-16	119.07	131.96	-9.59	18856	Downward Expansion	-68	44
2024-08-09	122.10	131.78	-5.07	23358	Deceleration	-37	27
2024-08-02	124.56	131.42	-3.46	19458	Deceleration	-23	19
2024-07-26	134.04	131.24	0.52	46867	Rotation Down	-14	16
2024-07-19	125.13	131.02	-5.76	20937	Rotation Down	-27	36
2024-07-12	127.98	131.06	-5.38	17469	Rotation Down	-27	58
2024-07-05	125.89	130.99	-4.38	14718	Rotation Down	-28	63
2024-06-28	123.24	130.72	-6.35	25875	Rotation Down	-36	64
2024-06-21	122.10	130.35	-7.55	41467	Deceleration	-42	45
2024-06-14	126.46	129.87	-4.68	28334	Deceleration	-12	23
2024-06-07	132.34	129.20	-2.13	17055	Deceleration	21	17
2024-05-31	138.97	128.22	4.80	32557	Deceleration	40	28
2024-05-24	144.47	126.84	9.65	25729	Deceleration	43	34
2024-05-17	141.06	125.15	6.33	29970	Deceleration	45	35
2024-05-10	145.42	123.68	12.39	12987	Upward Expansion	49	43
2024-05-03	141.25	122.51	14.14	18905	Upward Expansion	52	49
2024-04-26	143.15	121.28	15.28	32739	Upward Expansion	65	65
2024-04-19	145.23	120.21	17.91	52681	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-04-12	150.35	118.94	21.75	40034	Upward Expansion	71	90
2024-04-05	152.71	117.62	23.01	35334	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-03-29	150.84	116.43	19.79	36160	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-03-22	147.48	115.36	18.36	63321	Upward Expansion	94	92
2024-03-15	137.40	114.28	10.50	76588	Upward Expansion	87	77
2024-03-08	120.97	113.88	-2.14	20561	Upward Expansion	55	41
2024-03-01	121.72	114.13	-0.26	27980	Deceleration	58	32
2024-02-23	120.60	114.51	-1.19	19839	Deceleration	54	27
2024-02-16	118.92	114.91	-0.91	14633	Deceleration	13	14
2024-02-09	115.00	115.36	-2.17	34074	Deceleration	6	8
2024-02-02	118.17	115.91	-0.74	17620	Deceleration	7	13
2024-01-26	122.28	115.88	1.46	40904	Deceleration	20	16
2024-01-19	113.69	116.10	-3.44	30734	Rotation Up	3	9
2024-01-12	111.08	116.51	-6.14	159511	Rotation Up	14	26
2024-01-05	119.29	117.17	1.20	16485	Rotation Up	28	62
2023-12-29	127.32	117.57	8.90	10178	Rotation Up	37	68
2023-12-22	126.38	117.59	8.56	51487	Rotation Up	39	51
2023-12-15	126.01	117.56	8.44	41930	Downward Expansion	21	34
2023-12-08	117.80	117.62	2.96	37590	Downward Expansion	-8	21
2023-12-01	112.01	117.85	-0.07	57293	Downward Expansion	-36	26
2023-11-24	107.90	118.30	-3.46	22419	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2023-11-17	106.22	118.68	-3.59	30289	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2023-11-10	102.86	119.03	-4.84	34702	Downward Expansion	-64	68
2023-11-03	97.63	119.55	-9.77	27256	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2023-10-27	93.90	120.01	-10.85	39137	Downward Expansion	-84	88
2023-10-20	96.89	120.87	-8.03	38993	Downward Expansion	-85	82

Price vs TrendAbove+4.9%

Trend directionFalling-2.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-1.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+18.9%

Price momentumPositive+6.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.05×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

36 / ±100

-20.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

18 /100

-21.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AUTN Directional State ↗ AUTN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance48

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion56

Deceleration86

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 29%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 32%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+1.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-2.5%
Rotation Up	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	-6.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-07-24	New	+1.7%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-07-10	Developing	-4.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-06-05	Established	-7.1%
Rotation Down	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+1.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	-9.6%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-12-19	Developing	+6.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-10-10	Established	+6.1%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	+10.1%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-05-02	Developing	+24.3%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-03-28	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-03-21	New	-4.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing63

Stage 2 · Advancing42

Stage 3 · Distribution36

Stage 4 · Declining58

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 27/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.71
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +1.5%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 100th percentile3 in cohort

Test AUTN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.80×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.05×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AUTN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 123.07falling

Slow Activity CHF 120.60rising

Trend Reference CHF 118.38+4.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 126.58-1.9% close margin

Structural low CHF 107.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +32.8%

From structural high -26.0%

From structural low +20.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-1.4%-19.0% to +22.3%	+45.5%	+45.5%	-2.3%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-7.4%-27.3% to +20.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-9.8%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-9.3%-29.6% to +33.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-12.8%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-2.6%-22.0% to +12.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-13.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AUTN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map