Weekly structural research · BUE · Consumer Cyclical

LONG Stage Analysis

Longvie S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close ARS 16.30Tenure NewBenchmark ^MERV

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -16−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 13/100directional strength

Maturity 13/100lifecycle context

Confidence 66/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -46.6%ARS 30.51 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	16.30	16.86	-12.38	3390511	Balance	-16	13
2026-09-25	16.95	16.94	-14.00	739370	Balance	12	23
2026-09-18	17.25	17.00	-17.21	1549282	Balance	-3	15
2026-09-11	16.80	17.07	-22.31	2746132	Rotation Up	-26	12
2026-09-04	18.10	17.18	-16.30	7906964	Rotation Up	-12	14
2026-08-28	15.45	17.29	-27.80	256828	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2026-08-21	15.40	17.53	-27.54	234630	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2026-08-14	15.85	17.81	-27.43	49867	Downward Expansion	-66	41
2026-08-07	16.30	18.03	-29.75	104626	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2026-07-31	16.45	18.28	-34.52	62420	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2026-07-24	16.45	18.52	-35.44	328044	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2026-07-17	16.70	18.78	-33.97	75919	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2026-07-10	16.35	19.08	-38.21	2839	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-07-03	16.30	19.32	-38.00	578158	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-06-26	16.55	19.68	-36.71	16487	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2026-06-19	16.30	20.07	-41.85	151279	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-06-12	16.60	20.41	-42.87	133204	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2026-06-05	16.60	20.78	-39.03	76973	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2026-05-29	17.20	21.10	-39.60	1558890	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-05-22	15.60	21.38	-39.81	2189010	Downward Expansion	-78	68
2026-05-15	16.50	21.49	-33.93	2137154	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2026-05-08	17.35	21.57	-32.93	1265209	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2026-05-01	18.10	21.63	-32.56	723500	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2026-04-24	17.75	21.66	-34.82	2010327	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2026-04-17	17.70	21.68	-36.72	1261091	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2026-04-10	18.00	21.66	-38.73	1125765	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-04-03	18.90	21.72	-36.43	2020702	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2026-03-27	17.30	21.80	-38.34	545084	Downward Expansion	-70	78
2026-03-20	17.25	21.96	-37.76	1147871	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2026-03-13	17.40	22.17	-36.10	9209212	Rotation Down	-76	78
2026-03-06	18.80	22.39	-31.45	2407502	Rotation Down	-41	62
2026-02-27	18.70	22.63	-33.03	1719962	Rotation Down	-36	60
2026-02-20	19.30	22.88	-37.15	998946	Rotation Down	-35	54
2026-02-13	20.15	23.16	-33.95	1376918	Balance	-29	41
2026-02-06	21.30	23.43	-34.73	2665572	Balance	-31	27
2026-01-30	22.80	23.60	-35.66	1515178	Balance	-20	16
2026-01-23	23.65	23.73	-31.73	2304581	Balance	-5	10
2026-01-16	22.50	23.81	-32.17	2349029	Balance	-11	13
2026-01-09	23.75	23.94	-32.63	2549459	Balance	1	8
2026-01-02	23.90	24.09	-33.60	1312158	Balance	4	11
2025-12-26	24.05	24.31	-33.50	1572983	Balance	10	9
2025-12-19	25.60	24.36	-30.59	3706038	Rotation Up	8	15
2025-12-12	23.65	24.41	-33.23	1639090	Rotation Up	21	26
2025-12-05	27.10	24.57	-26.25	1492126	Rotation Up	27	56
2025-11-28	28.30	24.59	-23.71	1456253	Rotation Up	35	54
2025-11-21	26.40	24.51	-23.33	5458985	Rotation Up	26	39
2025-11-14	27.80	24.46	-26.57	3996127	Downward Expansion	37	40
2025-11-07	26.20	24.41	-28.82	9858836	Downward Expansion	-0	17
2025-10-31	25.50	24.44	-34.88	7583051	Downward Expansion	-17	15
2025-10-24	19.00	24.51	-31.08	1913370	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-10-17	18.95	24.89	-29.35	1271631	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2025-10-10	19.20	25.34	-27.12	922811	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2025-10-03	19.00	25.77	-24.44	1782642	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2025-09-26	18.30	26.17	-27.94	2401595	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2025-09-19	16.95	26.54	-30.20	1132641	Downward Expansion	-89	91
2025-09-12	19.95	27.10	-22.67	842788	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2025-09-05	21.20	27.53	-28.65	1064559	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2025-08-29	22.00	27.88	-26.45	1618611	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2025-08-22	23.70	28.30	-26.21	1413855	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2025-08-15	23.95	28.66	-28.98	1846075	Downward Expansion	-62	41
2025-08-08	25.95	28.94	-27.57	1453294	Downward Expansion	-50	22
2025-08-01	26.45	29.29	-26.32	785304	Downward Expansion	-39	18
2025-07-25	27.45	29.61	-21.82	1786940	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-07-18	28.40	29.94	-15.28	862957	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2025-07-11	26.40	30.26	-19.39	800576	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2025-07-04	26.60	30.72	-22.40	1164075	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2025-06-27	26.20	31.23	-23.08	1547841	Downward Expansion	-53	25
2025-06-20	26.35	31.89	-24.38	651402	Downward Expansion	-44	23
2025-06-13	28.15	32.41	-22.36	5324754	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-06-06	30.45	32.82	-17.88	3683893	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-05-30	25.75	33.06	-34.74	1441128	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-05-23	26.95	33.50	-34.25	1156311	Downward Expansion	-48	34
2025-05-16	28.50	33.84	-30.39	1264467	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-05-09	27.80	34.12	-27.57	1372538	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-05-02	25.70	34.54	-34.32	543817	Downward Expansion	-68	75
2025-04-25	24.95	35.06	-41.40	1238958	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2025-04-18	26.40	35.54	-38.25	271686	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2025-04-11	26.95	36.02	-40.61	1870360	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2025-04-04	27.65	36.49	-36.67	1467762	Downward Expansion	-71	46
2025-03-28	30.35	36.76	-39.91	936886	Downward Expansion	-60	39
2025-03-21	32.50	36.92	-38.78	1205549	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2025-03-14	32.20	36.88	-38.46	1557470	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2025-03-07	30.85	36.88	-40.90	1764610	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-02-28	29.45	36.94	-43.74	2227552	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2025-02-21	33.75	37.08	-41.44	4336740	Rotation Down	-57	40
2025-02-14	32.90	37.06	-45.00	3358088	Rotation Down	-34	42
2025-02-07	31.65	37.12	-49.29	1975584	Rotation Down	-44	54
2025-01-31	34.75	37.34	-49.05	3609794	Rotation Down	-32	46
2025-01-24	34.35	37.43	-50.94	2979976	Rotation Down	-27	49
2025-01-17	32.45	37.52	-54.00	2475085	Balance	-38	49
2025-01-10	36.50	37.55	-54.53	2223123	Balance	-19	25
2025-01-03	35.95	37.43	-54.83	1796180	Balance	-2	16
2024-12-27	37.30	37.27	-51.12	2056516	Balance	20	14
2024-12-20	38.20	37.11	-48.60	3521448	Upward Expansion	46	28
2024-12-13	40.05	36.91	-44.80	1871656	Upward Expansion	55	55
2024-12-06	42.00	37.44	-38.58	5946225	Upward Expansion	56	59
2024-11-29	45.85	37.80	-35.51	6698021	Balance	73	64
2024-11-22	42.10	38.14	-40.32	3118906	Balance	31	31
2024-11-15	40.50	38.32	-39.39	2748410	Balance	14	9
2024-11-08	37.65	38.59	-41.61	1672846	Balance	2	8
2024-11-01	38.80	38.98	-38.09	1701718	Balance	-13	9
2024-10-25	37.30	39.31	-41.18	2173211	Balance	-19	13
2024-10-18	36.70	39.81	-41.34	1366892	Balance	-7	14
2024-10-11	40.45	40.38	-34.66	1110846	Balance	18	33
2024-10-04	41.30	40.77	-32.95	1185223	Balance	6	25
2024-09-27	39.25	40.99	-35.96	1388458	Balance	-6	22
2024-09-20	40.95	41.32	-37.52	1761320	Downward Expansion	1	16
2024-09-13	40.95	41.79	-38.20	5576073	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2024-09-06	35.90	42.34	-43.63	3074950	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2024-08-30	35.00	43.14	-45.83	4466461	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2024-08-23	31.40	44.14	-48.78	1265950	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2024-08-16	32.00	45.41	-49.82	1121909	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2024-08-09	32.80	45.91	-47.02	1853853	Downward Expansion	-61	43
2024-08-02	33.65	46.25	-40.54	801089	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2024-07-26	33.00	46.40	-46.35	1138787	Downward Expansion	-50	34
2024-07-19	34.75	46.57	-45.14	1358572	Downward Expansion	-45	30
2024-07-12	38.20	46.70	-45.56	1356430	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2024-07-05	37.65	46.67	-44.01	2054200	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-06-28	36.90	46.72	-45.07	3382643	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2024-06-21	33.50	46.69	-49.54	1206870	Rotation Down	-64	81
2024-06-14	32.95	46.85	-51.08	4237634	Rotation Down	-38	72
2024-06-07	31.05	46.73	-52.52	4255534	Rotation Down	-46	70
2024-05-31	32.40	46.71	-55.04	5503221	Rotation Down	-47	56
2024-05-24	32.30	46.64	-52.67	4000217	Rotation Down	-13	14
2024-05-17	55.80	46.51	-17.66	693970	Deceleration	45	33
2024-05-10	53.10	45.76	-19.48	1314474	Deceleration	35	19
2024-05-03	56.03	45.02	-19.04	1242519	Deceleration	40	18
2024-04-26	47.41	44.09	-23.76	414275	Deceleration	8	11
2024-04-19	48.49	43.40	-17.74	319998	Deceleration	17	11
2024-04-12	49.37	42.68	-21.39	626611	Deceleration	20	11
2024-04-05	48.83	41.99	-21.60	258717	Deceleration	31	17
2024-03-29	52.11	41.31	-17.73	369792	Deceleration	33	18
2024-03-22	53.97	40.59	-17.15	891354	Deceleration	33	20
2024-03-15	52.01	39.76	-10.16	557986	Deceleration	34	22
2024-03-08	48.00	38.83	-13.01	589227	Deceleration	38	23
2024-03-01	49.27	37.89	-16.43	767378	Upward Expansion	46	36
2024-02-23	54.95	36.93	-12.18	425771	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-02-16	57.50	35.80	-5.63	480924	Upward Expansion	65	74
2024-02-09	59.85	34.67	-8.11	1496814	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-02-02	65.04	33.29	-15.35	2721398	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-01-26	69.55	31.75	-6.23	5498146	Upward Expansion	94	88
2024-01-19	46.97	30.07	-33.19	1064369	Upward Expansion	82	64
2024-01-12	42.95	29.13	-31.59	718175	Upward Expansion	76	54
2024-01-05	38.06	28.33	-41.54	194432	Upward Expansion	61	47
2023-12-29	38.20	27.71	-34.61	147483	Upward Expansion	65	55
2023-12-22	38.69	27.43	-35.98	395996	Upward Expansion	67	69
2023-12-15	37.17	27.04	-37.83	497368	Upward Expansion	65	75
2023-12-08	39.08	26.73	-36.76	911526	Upward Expansion	78	77
2023-12-01	36.19	26.29	-37.51	375709	Upward Expansion	70	63
2023-11-24	38.25	25.95	-38.26	1524452	Upward Expansion	82	56
2023-11-17	29.19	25.54	-33.79	446317	Upward Expansion	53	31
2023-11-10	30.51	25.41	-33.23	156751	Upward Expansion	59	41
2023-11-03	30.37	25.15	-32.00	101418	Upward Expansion	59	51
2023-10-27	28.50	24.88	-38.58	225790	Upward Expansion	58	49
2023-10-20	33.11	24.65	-42.30	367883	Upward Expansion	75	52
2023-10-13	30.86	24.28	-44.18	431176	Upward Expansion	68	41

Price vs TrendBelow-3.3%

Trend directionFalling-9.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-46.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.6%

Price momentumNegative-13.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.29×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-16 / ±100

-4.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

13 /100

-0.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LONG Directional State ↗ LONG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance51

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion34

Deceleration36

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 48%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-5.5%
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-7.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-08-28	Established	-10.4%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-03-13	New	-9.8%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-02-13	Developing	-16.2%
Rotation Up	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	-3.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-11-14	Extended	-5.6%
Rotation Down	2025-01-24	2025-02-21	Developing	-1.7%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-17	New	-13.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2024-12-20	New	-9.0%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-11-29	Developing	+16.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-28	2024-09-20	Established	+11.0%
Rotation Down	2024-05-24	2024-06-21	Developing	+3.7%
Deceleration	2024-03-08	2024-05-17	Developing	+16.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing74

Stage 2 · Advancing1

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining99

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MERV

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 77/100
Current Relative Strength: -12.38
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 33th percentile3 in cohort

Test LONG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.29×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LONG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity ARS 16.85rising

Slow Activity ARS 16.63falling

Trend Reference ARS 16.86-3.3% close margin

Current Fair Value ARS 30.51-46.6% close margin

Structural low ARS 15.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.3%

Annualized volatility +33.7%

From structural high -46.6%

From structural low +8.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MERV	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	-5.0%-18.4% to +50.1%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-5.2%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-5.0%-28.1% to +50.1%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-17.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+30.3%-31.2% to +221.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-40.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+59.0%-53.4% to +66.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-151.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LONG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map