Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

VNT Stage Analysis

Ventia Services Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 6.07Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Structural repair

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 49−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 20/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +35.5%AUD 4.48 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	6.07	5.84	6.50	8191229	Rotation Up	49	44
2026-10-02	6.12	5.81	8.15	7604074	Rotation Down	53	42
2026-09-25	6.13	5.80	8.97	9265392	Rotation Down	31	26
2026-09-18	6.00	5.79	6.29	17467940	Rotation Down	8	13
2026-09-11	5.70	5.78	1.23	13088962	Rotation Down	-24	50
2026-09-04	5.60	5.76	-3.28	3040868	Rotation Down	-27	58
2026-08-28	5.46	5.74	-6.46	2576861	Rotation Down	-40	63
2026-08-21	5.45	5.75	-6.19	1838692	Deceleration	-44	54
2026-08-14	5.72	5.75	-2.22	3934233	Deceleration	-7	26
2026-08-07	5.91	5.77	-0.38	983617	Deceleration	15	27
2026-07-31	5.70	5.77	-0.75	1425440	Deceleration	6	25
2026-07-24	5.83	5.78	4.00	1660978	Deceleration	24	29
2026-07-17	5.96	5.78	6.42	1991849	Upward Expansion	41	25
2026-07-10	5.95	5.77	6.45	1763485	Upward Expansion	51	41
2026-07-03	6.16	5.76	10.07	1930193	Upward Expansion	66	71
2026-06-26	6.46	5.75	16.94	2551281	Upward Expansion	69	86
2026-06-19	6.59	5.73	19.00	5850547	Upward Expansion	83	91
2026-06-12	6.50	5.69	18.36	1371468	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-06-05	6.23	5.66	16.48	1172113	Rotation Up	73	81
2026-05-29	6.21	5.64	15.31	19940004	Rotation Up	40	65
2026-05-22	6.12	5.62	15.24	10190578	Balance	36	51
2026-05-15	6.03	5.59	14.46	12247644	Balance	28	26
2026-05-08	5.72	5.57	7.72	14137958	Balance	-21	10
2026-05-01	5.42	5.55	2.61	7991573	Balance	-51	34
2026-04-24	5.37	5.54	1.38	9508042	Balance	-55	50
2026-04-17	5.18	5.53	-3.64	16286744	Balance	-35	44
2026-04-10	5.23	5.52	-2.65	15050558	Balance	-31	37
2026-04-03	5.22	5.52	1.69	11533218	Balance	-31	30
2026-03-27	5.48	5.52	7.87	8031353	Deceleration	19	10
2026-03-20	5.53	5.51	10.52	16314829	Deceleration	25	15
2026-03-13	5.46	5.51	7.27	6839719	Deceleration	20	13
2026-03-06	5.67	5.50	8.92	8444092	Deceleration	16	9
2026-02-27	5.86	5.48	8.85	12680331	Deceleration	20	22
2026-02-20	5.57	5.45	5.24	10132446	Deceleration	-15	27
2026-02-13	5.14	5.43	-0.69	10860323	Rotation Down	-29	34
2026-02-06	5.05	5.43	0.47	15731445	Rotation Down	1	11
2026-01-30	5.66	5.42	11.08	7144595	Upward Expansion	47	34
2026-01-23	5.70	5.40	12.99	9474041	Upward Expansion	61	48
2026-01-16	6.23	5.37	23.75	10187520	Upward Expansion	83	78
2026-01-09	5.95	5.32	21.81	7041772	Upward Expansion	71	61
2026-01-02	5.88	5.28	21.41	3064993	Upward Expansion	69	57
2025-12-26	5.86	5.24	21.63	3713036	Upward Expansion	69	57
2025-12-19	5.73	5.20	22.03	12202952	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-12-12	5.67	5.16	20.79	8202974	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-12-05	5.76	5.12	24.61	9219843	Upward Expansion	69	59
2025-11-28	5.77	5.07	26.00	15901342	Upward Expansion	73	63
2025-11-21	5.46	5.02	22.70	11888409	Upward Expansion	63	65
2025-11-14	5.67	4.97	24.72	9831333	Upward Expansion	74	76
2025-11-07	5.60	4.92	21.88	10245065	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-10-31	5.61	4.86	21.06	8786146	Upward Expansion	76	64
2025-10-24	5.27	4.81	12.60	12170888	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-10-17	5.35	4.76	14.84	12331280	Deceleration	63	38
2025-10-10	5.27	4.72	13.93	19537509	Deceleration	48	25
2025-10-03	5.13	4.67	10.65	7777304	Deceleration	37	20
2025-09-26	4.99	4.63	10.35	7204520	Deceleration	37	20
2025-09-19	4.96	4.60	10.08	11090665	Upward Expansion	44	32
2025-09-12	5.20	4.57	14.30	16756994	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-09-05	5.09	4.51	12.18	5772790	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-08-29	5.32	4.47	16.33	7595780	Upward Expansion	75	68
2025-08-22	5.32	4.41	16.70	13871557	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-08-15	5.28	4.35	16.64	11115444	Upward Expansion	83	68
2025-08-08	5.04	4.29	13.36	6855442	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-08-01	5.03	4.23	15.36	5883895	Upward Expansion	73	67
2025-07-25	4.87	4.18	12.16	6940404	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-07-18	5.07	4.13	15.70	6959680	Upward Expansion	83	78
2025-07-11	4.91	4.07	14.94	9307422	Upward Expansion	73	78
2025-07-04	4.90	4.03	14.83	11759154	Upward Expansion	77	82
2025-06-27	4.92	3.99	16.96	10640743	Upward Expansion	85	88
2025-06-20	4.80	3.97	14.67	14666699	Upward Expansion	82	88
2025-06-13	4.70	3.96	12.27	8064058	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-06-06	4.66	3.94	12.24	7585860	Upward Expansion	80	91
2025-05-30	4.54	3.93	10.80	8147618	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-05-23	4.60	3.92	13.69	9802220	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-05-16	4.46	3.91	11.16	10335676	Rotation Up	81	84
2025-05-09	4.45	3.91	12.98	10900354	Rotation Up	59	69
2025-05-02	4.16	3.91	6.07	19621337	Rotation Up	42	37
2025-04-25	4.03	3.91	6.41	5521567	Rotation Up	33	27
2025-04-18	4.01	3.92	8.20	11900976	Rotation Up	21	21
2025-04-11	3.95	3.92	9.37	19178782	Rotation Up	17	20
2025-04-04	3.97	3.93	9.94	13765376	Rotation Up	22	34
2025-03-28	3.94	3.93	5.16	8912226	Rotation Up	21	43
2025-03-21	3.96	3.93	6.56	13902607	Balance	24	47
2025-03-14	3.90	3.93	7.11	14948227	Balance	3	29
2025-03-07	3.91	3.94	5.42	10379535	Balance	-2	21
2025-02-28	4.04	3.94	5.97	11903612	Balance	-3	18
2025-02-21	4.01	3.93	3.89	11709976	Downward Expansion	-13	17
2025-02-14	3.57	3.93	-10.16	7283061	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-02-07	3.62	3.94	-8.37	8139761	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2025-01-31	3.57	3.94	-9.60	7800654	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-01-24	3.59	3.95	-7.63	7830024	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-01-17	3.45	3.94	-9.98	7076399	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2025-01-10	3.40	3.95	-10.88	10008550	Rotation Down	-68	87
2025-01-03	3.40	3.95	-10.51	4030894	Rotation Down	-45	80
2024-12-27	3.40	3.95	-10.25	3895466	Rotation Down	-51	77
2024-12-20	3.35	3.94	-9.43	28934833	Rotation Down	-49	58
2024-12-13	3.45	3.94	-9.03	44357227	Rotation Down	-43	40
2024-12-06	3.98	3.93	3.70	14634015	Upward Expansion	16	13
2024-11-29	4.26	3.91	11.02	8441812	Upward Expansion	47	40
2024-11-22	4.30	3.88	13.40	8022912	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-11-15	4.37	3.85	17.38	6298874	Upward Expansion	66	50
2024-11-08	4.34	3.82	17.36	8550112	Upward Expansion	65	50
2024-11-01	4.25	3.79	18.23	9628407	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-10-25	4.28	3.76	18.81	7156472	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-10-18	4.33	3.73	19.90	6642239	Upward Expansion	71	69
2024-10-11	4.35	3.71	22.30	5477103	Upward Expansion	77	82
2024-10-04	4.23	3.68	20.78	9601309	Upward Expansion	68	77
2024-09-27	4.27	3.66	21.85	10815582	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-09-20	4.26	3.63	22.52	11560830	Upward Expansion	80	67
2024-09-13	4.12	3.60	21.29	8393605	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-09-06	4.04	3.56	21.09	11073097	Upward Expansion	69	57
2024-08-30	3.96	3.52	18.36	11679260	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-08-23	4.02	3.49	22.07	13744937	Upward Expansion	73	61
2024-08-16	4.04	3.45	24.47	15831867	Upward Expansion	82	74
2024-08-09	3.88	3.41	23.64	8229368	Upward Expansion	69	77
2024-08-02	3.90	3.37	22.58	10112573	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-07-26	3.87	3.33	22.95	7890606	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-07-19	3.83	3.30	21.90	11736600	Upward Expansion	83	88
2024-07-12	3.81	3.26	22.03	8890254	Upward Expansion	87	87
2024-07-05	3.63	3.22	19.18	10433028	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-06-28	3.51	3.19	16.37	11351388	Upward Expansion	62	60
2024-06-21	3.61	3.17	20.09	16353647	Deceleration	68	53
2024-06-14	3.42	3.13	15.41	10925884	Deceleration	46	29
2024-06-07	3.38	3.10	12.54	11678479	Deceleration	25	16
2024-05-31	3.29	3.07	12.60	9426417	Deceleration	17	18
2024-05-24	3.26	3.04	11.55	9173065	Deceleration	20	19
2024-05-17	3.25	3.01	10.53	7488263	Deceleration	32	22
2024-05-10	3.31	2.99	14.21	7774390	Deceleration	37	24
2024-05-03	3.35	2.96	17.90	8223512	Deceleration	40	31
2024-04-26	3.34	2.93	19.19	7227532	Upward Expansion	45	39
2024-04-19	3.35	2.90	20.47	11054975	Upward Expansion	50	50
2024-04-12	3.43	2.87	20.79	8502016	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-04-05	3.46	2.84	22.81	17813332	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-03-29	3.52	2.80	23.99	15727039	Upward Expansion	68	75
2024-03-22	3.53	2.77	27.20	21832914	Upward Expansion	72	90
2024-03-15	3.52	2.73	29.55	14283268	Upward Expansion	79	93
2024-03-08	3.55	2.69	28.74	15737986	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-01	3.48	2.65	28.98	28981330	Upward Expansion	97	98
2024-02-23	3.40	2.62	29.08	26976083	Upward Expansion	98	93
2024-02-16	2.93	2.59	12.03	8876713	Upward Expansion	78	68
2024-02-09	2.89	2.58	11.48	9688572	Upward Expansion	76	66
2024-02-02	2.90	2.57	11.69	10757040	Upward Expansion	84	68
2024-01-26	2.80	2.56	10.65	6954643	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-01-19	2.79	2.55	12.97	8521314	Upward Expansion	69	81
2024-01-12	2.79	2.54	12.48	6842401	Upward Expansion	73	86
2024-01-05	2.79	2.53	13.24	7130619	Upward Expansion	77	90
2023-12-29	2.80	2.51	12.64	4369247	Upward Expansion	84	92
2023-12-22	2.72	2.50	11.26	17055284	Upward Expansion	75	86
2023-12-15	2.70	2.48	11.91	31508560	Upward Expansion	75	84
2023-12-08	2.70	2.47	15.83	22390222	Upward Expansion	79	80
2023-12-01	2.69	2.46	18.02	29065754	Balance	78	67
2023-11-24	2.56	2.45	13.56	15600767	Balance	51	29
2023-11-17	2.49	2.44	10.68	16432699	Balance	28	11
2023-11-10	2.41	2.43	8.60	28348410	Balance	19	8
2023-11-03	2.46	2.43	11.30	88070384	Deceleration	43	21
2023-10-27	2.46	2.42	14.01	11259017	Deceleration	35	18
2023-10-20	2.50	2.41	14.60	15740315	Deceleration	41	25

Price vs TrendAbove+4.0%

Trend directionRising+1.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+35.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+6.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.1%

Price momentumPositive+16.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

49 / ±100

+73.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

44 /100

-6.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VNT Directional State ↗ VNT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance39

Rotation Up72

Upward Expansion71

Deceleration61

Rotation Down6

Downward Expansion10

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 54%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 4%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	+12.1%
Deceleration	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	-6.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-07-17	Developing	-8.3%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-05	New	+0.3%
Balance	2026-04-03	2026-05-22	Developing	+17.2%
Deceleration	2026-02-20	2026-03-27	Developing	-1.6%
Rotation Down	2026-02-06	2026-02-13	New	+1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2026-01-30	Established	+7.2%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-10-17	New	+7.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-09-19	Established	+7.9%
Rotation Up	2025-03-28	2025-05-16	Developing	+13.1%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-21	New	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-02-21	Developing	+16.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing87

Stage 3 · Distribution80

Stage 4 · Declining13

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: 6.50
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +16.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +18.8%
Industrials regime cohort: 27th percentile11 in cohort

Test VNT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.52×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VNT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 6.06rising

Slow Activity AUD 5.91rising

Trend Reference AUD 5.84+4.0% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 4.48+35.5% close margin

Structural low AUD 4.91shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +3.8%

Annualized volatility +21.2%

From structural high -9.4%

From structural low +23.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	3	+4.0%+2.2% to +14.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+3.7%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	+6.4%-12.1% to +24.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+1.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+26.5%+26.5% to +26.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+16.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+39.0%+39.0% to +39.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+32.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VNT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map