Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

AHL Stage Analysis

Adrad Holdings Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.48Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 61/100directional strength

Maturity 17/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +73.5%AUD 0.853 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.48	1.31	28.63	77860	Upward Expansion	64	61
2026-10-02	1.48	1.29	30.38	110153	Upward Expansion	63	68
2026-09-25	1.40	1.28	25.58	96340	Upward Expansion	58	51
2026-09-18	1.48	1.27	32.90	119142	Rotation Up	66	54
2026-09-11	1.46	1.25	33.03	107427	Rotation Up	55	40
2026-09-04	1.55	1.23	39.06	61885	Rotation Up	49	20
2026-08-28	1.18	1.21	6.11	16	Rotation Down	-28	60
2026-08-21	1.15	1.21	4.76	695	Rotation Down	-30	53
2026-08-14	1.11	1.20	0.78	68092	Deceleration	-44	50
2026-08-07	1.16	1.20	4.90	0	Deceleration	-17	32
2026-07-31	1.22	1.19	14.78	21882	Deceleration	13	24
2026-07-24	1.30	1.19	26.39	44	Upward Expansion	45	33
2026-07-17	1.39	1.18	36.40	27930	Upward Expansion	66	54
2026-07-10	1.30	1.16	29.70	21631	Upward Expansion	65	59
2026-07-03	1.42	1.15	42.86	40811	Upward Expansion	70	84
2026-06-26	1.44	1.14	47.95	4998	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-06-19	1.42	1.13	47.15	24676	Upward Expansion	80	87
2026-06-12	1.42	1.11	49.81	23323	Upward Expansion	85	88
2026-06-05	1.34	1.09	46.65	327673	Upward Expansion	73	75
2026-05-29	1.32	1.07	45.46	89260	Upward Expansion	72	64
2026-05-22	1.32	1.06	47.95	266466	Upward Expansion	73	74
2026-05-15	1.30	1.04	49.01	163602	Upward Expansion	71	74
2026-05-08	1.23	1.02	41.34	114582	Upward Expansion	67	81
2026-05-01	1.32	1.01	53.35	43602	Upward Expansion	82	89
2026-04-24	1.30	0.9887	52.92	159584	Upward Expansion	86	81
2026-04-17	1.26	0.9691	46.88	1102742	Upward Expansion	87	64
2026-04-10	1.15	0.9523	35.94	199943	Upward Expansion	75	56
2026-04-03	1.10	0.9399	37.22	2104245	Upward Expansion	66	60
2026-03-27	1.10	0.9273	39.77	79949	Upward Expansion	70	74
2026-03-20	1.10	0.9128	42.98	302448	Upward Expansion	72	79
2026-03-13	1.09	0.9015	39.73	34390	Upward Expansion	75	76
2026-03-06	1.06	0.8863	33.79	105767	Deceleration	71	52
2026-02-27	1.05	0.873	28.73	1686487	Deceleration	67	38
2026-02-20	1.04	0.86	30.28	320968	Deceleration	53	27
2026-02-13	0.9128	0.8472	17.70	89008	Deceleration	30	27
2026-02-06	0.9128	0.8388	21.06	240096	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-01-30	0.977	0.8288	27.95	40104	Upward Expansion	52	49
2026-01-23	0.9868	0.8167	30.12	29527	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-01-16	1.02	0.8046	34.37	1687	Upward Expansion	68	62
2026-01-09	1.03	0.7921	39.76	18454	Upward Expansion	74	65
2026-01-02	1.00	0.7784	37.42	75866	Upward Expansion	69	64
2025-12-26	0.9967	0.7651	37.42	14119	Upward Expansion	67	70
2025-12-19	0.977	0.7504	38.12	144807	Upward Expansion	68	85
2025-12-12	0.9868	0.7372	39.46	87450	Upward Expansion	69	88
2025-12-05	1.03	0.7237	47.39	176380	Upward Expansion	85	93
2025-11-28	1.04	0.7096	50.70	252165	Upward Expansion	93	96
2025-11-21	0.8881	0.6953	33.25	162439	Upward Expansion	71	83
2025-11-14	0.8733	0.6878	28.57	239613	Upward Expansion	68	78
2025-11-07	0.9079	0.6804	32.27	92173	Upward Expansion	82	81
2025-10-31	0.8881	0.6699	28.54	332613	Upward Expansion	82	67
2025-10-24	0.7697	0.6595	10.16	104551	Upward Expansion	61	40
2025-10-17	0.7598	0.6526	9.05	118996	Upward Expansion	59	36
2025-10-10	0.7302	0.6463	5.16	83498	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-10-03	0.7598	0.6413	8.89	158754	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-09-26	0.7105	0.6361	4.18	58358	Upward Expansion	58	50
2025-09-19	0.75	0.6327	10.02	1927300	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-09-12	0.7796	0.6305	13.05	103041	Upward Expansion	75	69
2025-09-05	0.7204	0.6279	4.26	31243	Upward Expansion	64	50
2025-08-29	0.6663	0.6264	-4.76	169832	Upward Expansion	55	43
2025-08-22	0.7622	0.6282	8.88	434366	Rotation Up	82	64
2025-08-15	0.6279	0.6247	-9.90	20876	Rotation Up	24	20
2025-08-08	0.6567	0.625	-4.54	26824	Rotation Up	29	40
2025-08-01	0.6567	0.6253	-3.05	48390	Balance	30	34
2025-07-25	0.6519	0.6243	-3.94	18413	Balance	21	26
2025-07-18	0.6615	0.6235	-3.73	38427	Balance	27	31
2025-07-11	0.6136	0.6223	-8.84	43228	Balance	-10	13
2025-07-04	0.6136	0.623	-9.41	121400	Balance	-11	15
2025-06-27	0.6232	0.6239	-7.39	176688	Balance	-10	15
2025-06-20	0.6423	0.6278	-4.72	135338	Downward Expansion	-6	5
2025-06-13	0.6136	0.6282	-9.71	42054	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2025-06-06	0.604	0.63	-11.35	66803	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2025-05-30	0.556	0.6317	-18.05	93970	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2025-05-23	0.58	0.6356	-14.41	117947	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2025-05-16	0.58	0.6396	-14.99	35412	Downward Expansion	-48	22
2025-05-09	0.604	0.6443	-11.21	2859691	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2025-05-02	0.6088	0.6483	-11.44	24286	Downward Expansion	-27	23
2025-04-25	0.6615	0.6505	-1.74	19495	Downward Expansion	-16	16
2025-04-18	0.6519	0.6519	-2.22	123939	Downward Expansion	-33	26
2025-04-11	0.5944	0.6548	-9.64	62317	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-04-04	0.5752	0.6601	-13.54	145277	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-03-28	0.5608	0.6637	-19.82	264811	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2025-03-21	0.5714	0.6664	-18.50	118644	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-03-14	0.5808	0.6688	-16.28	766151	Downward Expansion	-79	78
2025-03-07	0.6042	0.6701	-15.27	1064702	Balance	-70	57
2025-02-28	0.6089	0.6705	-17.44	564032	Balance	-50	20
2025-02-21	0.6838	0.6717	-9.15	74054	Balance	23	29
2025-02-14	0.7025	0.671	-9.52	12507	Balance	30	29
2025-02-07	0.6744	0.6673	-12.81	145221	Balance	4	14
2025-01-31	0.7213	0.6678	-7.28	351039	Balance	25	22
2025-01-24	0.6557	0.6664	-14.74	173406	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2025-01-17	0.637	0.6665	-16.30	4487	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2025-01-10	0.6651	0.6682	-12.59	2320	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2025-01-03	0.6276	0.6713	-17.23	0	Downward Expansion	-62	67
2024-12-27	0.6276	0.6749	-17.65	2500	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2024-12-20	0.6276	0.679	-16.02	247204	Balance	-54	37
2024-12-13	0.6323	0.6857	-18.11	97205	Balance	-55	31
2024-12-06	0.6416	0.6944	-18.39	222162	Balance	-52	25
2024-11-29	0.74	0.7028	-6.52	124101	Balance	-2	7
2024-11-22	0.6557	0.7108	-16.97	76997	Balance	-56	38
2024-11-15	0.6651	0.7201	-15.15	32294	Balance	-41	30
2024-11-08	0.6557	0.7288	-17.00	67980	Balance	-46	26
2024-11-01	0.6744	0.7371	-13.43	81933	Balance	-30	14
2024-10-25	0.6978	0.7459	-12.00	143263	Balance	-19	11
2024-10-18	0.7213	0.7515	-10.36	389092	Balance	-3	9
2024-10-11	0.7259	0.755	-9.49	19272	Balance	-2	12
2024-10-04	0.6744	0.7586	-15.70	90103	Balance	-11	22
2024-09-27	0.7025	0.7632	-13.44	47572	Downward Expansion	-7	24
2024-09-20	0.74	0.7654	-9.43	60974	Downward Expansion	-12	23
2024-09-13	0.7526	0.7622	-7.00	67639	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2024-09-06	0.6838	0.7597	-14.77	88355	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2024-08-30	0.6425	0.7611	-21.04	292856	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-08-23	0.6425	0.7651	-20.87	123060	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-08-16	0.6195	0.7648	-23.62	88090	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2024-08-09	0.615	0.7653	-22.91	169261	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2024-08-02	0.6471	0.767	-21.05	41545	Rotation Down	-62	52
2024-07-26	0.6608	0.7688	-19.52	76372	Rotation Down	-35	49
2024-07-19	0.592	0.7712	-28.72	277808	Rotation Down	-54	68
2024-07-12	0.6884	0.7765	-17.59	181479	Rotation Down	-38	61
2024-07-05	0.6792	0.7763	-17.64	158917	Rotation Down	-33	62
2024-06-28	0.6608	0.7778	-19.65	302972	Rotation Down	-39	62
2024-06-21	0.6884	0.7795	-17.07	127865	Deceleration	-37	47
2024-06-14	0.7572	0.7812	-8.33	188637	Deceleration	-22	34
2024-06-07	0.7343	0.7826	-12.89	238193	Deceleration	-9	25
2024-05-31	0.7526	0.7852	-9.25	275269	Deceleration	10	19
2024-05-24	0.8261	0.787	-1.16	198634	Upward Expansion	43	28
2024-05-17	0.8949	0.7854	5.57	104770	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-05-10	0.8949	0.7816	6.32	118585	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-05-03	0.9775	0.779	17.82	53411	Upward Expansion	78	80
2024-04-26	0.9362	0.7735	13.79	28081	Upward Expansion	71	76
2024-04-19	0.927	0.771	12.71	78093	Upward Expansion	73	77
2024-04-12	0.9041	0.766	6.78	193902	Rotation Up	71	78
2024-04-05	0.9362	0.7611	10.57	184411	Rotation Up	57	74
2024-03-29	0.8674	—	—	57432	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-22	0.8261	—	—	120802	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-15	0.8325	—	—	60949	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-08	0.8144	—	—	142718	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-01	0.7692	—	—	468467	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-23	0.6425	—	—	63082	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-16	0.6787	—	—	117132	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-09	0.7239	—	—	219246	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-02	0.7647	—	—	262715	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-26	0.6334	—	—	348113	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-19	0.6334	—	—	129917	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-12	0.6651	—	—	319271	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-05	0.7013	—	—	117869	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-29	0.733	—	—	86	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-22	0.7511	—	—	5922147	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-15	0.6832	—	—	100518	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-08	0.7239	—	—	46074	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-01	0.7104	—	—	72481	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-24	0.742	—	—	134278	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-17	0.7963	—	—	99683	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	0.8144	—	—	24028	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	0.8054	—	—	71479	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	0.7782	—	—	85195	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	0.7828	—	—	40262	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendAbove+13.3%

Trend directionRising+9.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+73.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+12.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+28.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-1.1%

Price momentumPositive+28.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.35×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

64 / ±100

+9.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

61 /100

+21.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AHL Directional State ↗ AHL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion87

Deceleration45

Rotation Down10

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 132 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+5.7%
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-09-18	New	-5.0%
Rotation Down	2026-08-21	2026-08-28	New	+2.6%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	-9.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-07-24	Established	+19.8%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	+15.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2026-02-06	Established	+37.0%
Rotation Up	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+16.1%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	+5.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-06-20	Established	+10.6%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-03-07	Developing	-16.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-01-24	Developing	+4.5%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-12-20	Developing	-6.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-09-27	Developing	+14.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing15

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: 28.63
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +28.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +31.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 65th percentile31 in cohort

Test AHL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.27×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.35×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AHL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.46rising

Slow Activity AUD 1.34rising

Trend Reference AUD 1.31+13.3% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.853+73.5% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.9975shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.3%

Annualized volatility +51.1%

From structural high -7.0%

From structural low +104.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+6.3%-15.4% to +15.4%	+69.2%	+69.2%	+3.8%	+76.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+2.8%-36.1% to +55.5%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+3.5%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+34.4%-22.2% to +57.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+33.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+23.7%-29.7% to +77.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+21.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AHL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map