Weekly structural research · SHZ · Utilities

000685 Stage Analysis

Zhongshan Public Utilities Group Co.,Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 10.73Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -60−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 52/100directional strength

Maturity 4/100lifecycle context

Confidence 63/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +17.0%CNY 9.17 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	10.73	11.05	2.89	23568721	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-10-02	10.67	11.09	0.21	19349789	Balance	-54	38
2026-09-25	10.81	11.13	-1.88	30722358	Balance	-41	20
2026-09-18	10.91	11.17	-3.13	43181489	Rotation Up	-17	20
2026-09-11	11.15	11.20	0.33	51547202	Rotation Up	14	32
2026-09-04	11.43	11.23	2.62	16838145	Balance	24	32
2026-08-28	11.42	11.26	-0.61	15231578	Balance	4	12
2026-08-21	10.98	11.30	-5.49	6822359	Balance	-29	17
2026-08-14	11.03	11.33	-7.02	9588044	Downward Expansion	-30	16
2026-08-07	11.04	11.36	-6.90	13704019	Downward Expansion	-33	16
2026-07-31	11.08	11.38	-1.79	17382735	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-07-24	10.92	11.39	-4.68	22483500	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-07-17	10.59	11.41	-7.20	24365075	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2026-07-10	10.83	11.51	-13.68	25349288	Downward Expansion	-52	37
2026-07-03	10.96	11.56	-15.99	14994812	Downward Expansion	-57	57
2026-06-26	10.70	11.60	-19.22	16564627	Downward Expansion	-57	63
2026-06-19	10.58	11.65	-21.64	73866979	Downward Expansion	-62	60
2026-06-12	10.37	11.69	-18.10	25629617	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2026-06-05	10.77	11.75	-17.16	18663502	Downward Expansion	-58	27
2026-05-29	11.46	11.80	-13.59	154848007	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2026-05-22	12.19	11.85	-8.41	365700633	Downward Expansion	-8	12
2026-05-15	11.07	11.87	-16.74	105945294	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2026-05-08	11.66	11.97	-12.58	48250104	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2026-05-01	11.73	11.99	-9.61	84380390	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-04-24	11.55	11.99	-10.23	63293189	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2026-04-17	11.17	11.92	-13.04	49235770	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2026-04-10	11.05	11.88	-10.73	46457144	Rotation Down	-63	71
2026-04-03	10.69	11.84	-7.63	72515055	Rotation Down	-47	64
2026-03-27	10.95	11.83	-8.27	72730874	Rotation Down	-45	58
2026-03-20	11.07	11.81	-8.06	73046450	Deceleration	-39	39
2026-03-13	11.74	11.79	-5.37	67836985	Deceleration	7	9
2026-03-06	11.88	11.72	-3.51	90500231	Deceleration	13	8
2026-02-27	12.10	11.65	-3.88	59274175	Deceleration	29	12
2026-02-13	11.69	11.57	-4.43	71049202	Deceleration	25	15
2026-02-06	12.19	11.48	1.09	133692447	Deceleration	37	23
2026-01-30	12.35	11.38	0.37	92545854	Deceleration	39	25
2026-01-23	12.57	11.26	0.53	139056290	Deceleration	41	21
2026-01-16	11.79	11.14	-4.59	105588851	Deceleration	14	14
2026-01-09	12.19	11.03	-0.29	137367055	Deceleration	17	17
2026-01-02	11.65	10.91	-0.45	74418279	Deceleration	17	11
2025-12-26	11.22	10.80	-4.65	85965881	Deceleration	23	14
2025-12-19	11.46	10.71	0.78	194934992	Deceleration	44	27
2025-12-12	13.60	10.61	18.68	236478541	Deceleration	69	44
2025-12-05	12.25	10.44	8.33	136992690	Deceleration	39	27
2025-11-28	12.36	10.32	10.96	201545518	Deceleration	41	28
2025-11-21	12.03	10.19	12.23	133527197	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-11-14	12.03	10.08	6.87	106932486	Upward Expansion	49	41
2025-11-07	12.00	9.96	5.44	107996145	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-10-31	12.42	9.84	9.61	196654861	Upward Expansion	67	73
2025-10-24	12.98	9.73	15.66	390611169	Upward Expansion	69	88
2025-10-17	12.70	9.59	19.07	327994208	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-10-10	14.00	9.47	25.29	178134276	Upward Expansion	94	96
2025-10-03	12.37	9.30	9.92	177771089	Upward Expansion	90	69
2025-09-26	11.65	9.18	6.25	414025371	Upward Expansion	86	54
2025-09-19	9.53	9.09	-12.04	65428175	Upward Expansion	46	34
2025-09-12	9.84	9.06	-8.41	61067784	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-09-05	9.83	9.02	-6.29	71525806	Upward Expansion	67	63
2025-08-29	10.39	8.98	-1.96	69271314	Upward Expansion	76	89
2025-08-22	10.43	8.93	2.71	72764323	Upward Expansion	86	94
2025-08-15	10.37	8.87	6.82	89826864	Upward Expansion	93	96
2025-08-08	9.80	8.81	5.68	53015969	Upward Expansion	81	91
2025-08-01	9.78	8.76	6.89	80760679	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-07-25	9.57	8.71	3.09	99484747	Upward Expansion	85	84
2025-07-18	9.15	8.69	0.99	43015602	Balance	74	72
2025-07-11	9.17	8.68	3.42	55567488	Balance	49	51
2025-07-04	8.80	8.66	1.28	39637834	Balance	6	13
2025-06-27	8.78	8.66	2.50	45460253	Balance	-17	12
2025-06-20	8.47	8.65	2.83	30316149	Rotation Down	-42	21
2025-06-13	8.66	8.64	4.17	52396842	Rotation Down	-38	23
2025-06-06	8.49	8.63	1.83	25209549	Rotation Down	-28	31
2025-05-30	8.44	8.64	2.89	25217654	Rotation Down	-28	34
2025-05-23	8.39	8.64	1.46	34694086	Balance	-26	33
2025-05-16	8.52	8.63	2.83	57635490	Balance	-16	18
2025-05-09	8.56	8.62	4.05	38899358	Balance	-13	21
2025-05-02	8.46	8.61	5.45	36836336	Balance	-19	23
2025-04-25	8.82	8.61	9.98	36263577	Upward Expansion	30	21
2025-04-18	8.44	8.58	7.01	33289000	Upward Expansion	10	13
2025-04-11	8.48	8.53	7.07	101764873	Upward Expansion	24	14
2025-04-04	8.90	8.47	6.75	34129778	Upward Expansion	57	45
2025-03-28	8.94	8.41	5.04	55460476	Upward Expansion	58	49
2025-03-21	8.94	8.34	4.47	51830870	Upward Expansion	58	47
2025-03-14	9.02	8.27	2.87	57656570	Upward Expansion	64	41
2025-03-07	8.89	8.20	2.87	50600084	Upward Expansion	59	34
2025-02-28	8.75	8.14	3.64	58828286	Upward Expansion	54	32
2025-02-21	8.60	8.08	-1.47	43140861	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-02-14	8.70	8.02	1.93	50452414	Upward Expansion	53	35
2025-02-07	8.74	7.96	4.14	39803256	Deceleration	57	36
2025-01-31	8.71	7.89	8.13	13034852	Deceleration	45	25
2025-01-24	8.64	7.83	6.00	49905426	Deceleration	42	21
2025-01-17	8.64	7.76	7.57	68459794	Deceleration	46	28
2025-01-10	8.18	7.69	5.75	79571249	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-01-03	8.38	7.65	7.41	78113310	Upward Expansion	59	41
2024-12-27	9.01	7.60	7.67	91114324	Upward Expansion	71	57
2024-12-20	8.73	7.53	4.70	77602397	Upward Expansion	62	45
2024-12-13	8.62	7.48	3.02	107465855	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-12-06	8.81	7.43	4.79	84336814	Upward Expansion	70	48
2024-11-29	8.48	7.38	2.85	78019911	Upward Expansion	62	47
2024-11-22	8.26	7.34	2.12	122705552	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-11-15	8.31	7.31	0.02	110580738	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-11-08	8.79	7.28	2.18	153583173	Upward Expansion	83	70
2024-11-01	8.33	7.24	3.56	108165257	Upward Expansion	71	66
2024-10-25	8.23	7.20	1.04	99586123	Upward Expansion	68	85
2024-10-18	8.24	7.16	3.93	126367896	Upward Expansion	71	86
2024-10-11	8.09	7.12	5.36	227867490	Upward Expansion	73	85
2024-10-04	8.60	7.08	7.37	67400597	Rotation Up	91	91
2024-09-27	7.82	7.03	8.40	98781874	Rotation Up	43	53
2024-09-20	6.89	7.01	12.88	21740090	Balance	-32	18
2024-09-13	6.83	7.01	13.79	37879800	Balance	-38	21
2024-09-06	7.02	7.02	15.42	41805719	Balance	-10	7
2024-08-30	6.81	7.00	9.52	25297522	Downward Expansion	-38	17
2024-08-23	6.87	7.00	13.10	24019117	Downward Expansion	-26	20
2024-08-16	6.98	7.00	13.06	25321155	Downward Expansion	-20	22
2024-08-09	7.02	7.00	13.77	26432837	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2024-08-02	7.05	7.00	12.64	50172311	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2024-07-26	6.93	6.99	10.64	34586155	Rotation Down	-43	28
2024-07-19	6.80	6.98	5.42	25336571	Rotation Down	-32	33
2024-07-12	6.73	6.98	5.22	31650786	Rotation Down	-35	52
2024-07-05	6.64	6.98	6.07	28354968	Rotation Down	-41	61
2024-06-28	6.67	6.99	5.28	30325845	Rotation Down	-32	56
2024-06-21	6.66	6.99	2.94	26352484	Deceleration	-34	51
2024-06-14	6.76	6.99	2.66	24042532	Deceleration	-29	31
2024-06-07	6.89	7.00	4.87	43585329	Deceleration	7	15
2024-05-31	7.03	6.99	6.05	35809397	Deceleration	25	15
2024-05-24	7.12	6.99	7.07	52077656	Upward Expansion	38	19
2024-05-17	7.32	6.97	7.22	100869542	Upward Expansion	56	35
2024-05-10	7.30	6.95	7.09	74264987	Upward Expansion	57	49
2024-05-03	7.16	6.94	6.97	41413305	Upward Expansion	59	55
2024-04-26	7.42	6.93	13.02	65174709	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-04-19	7.52	6.92	17.47	98222726	Upward Expansion	71	60
2024-04-12	7.31	6.89	15.81	81521078	Upward Expansion	64	44
2024-04-05	7.21	6.88	11.20	33347801	Balance	60	39
2024-03-29	7.09	6.88	11.65	40759670	Balance	54	39
2024-03-22	7.00	6.88	8.85	41488157	Balance	53	45
2024-03-15	7.08	6.88	10.13	50320171	Balance	27	39
2024-03-08	7.08	6.89	13.58	45167176	Balance	29	31
2024-03-01	7.10	6.89	13.74	62978543	Balance	17	12
2024-02-23	7.02	6.89	17.62	61550045	Balance	-3	3
2024-02-09	6.90	6.88	19.66	88221093	Balance	-22	12
2024-02-02	6.52	6.88	24.71	62327851	Balance	-57	25
2024-01-26	6.97	6.89	23.61	61081398	Balance	-3	10
2024-01-19	6.72	6.88	19.73	42598363	Balance	-25	14
2024-01-12	6.94	6.88	21.58	32460426	Balance	-5	8
2024-01-05	6.97	6.88	21.18	39409800	Balance	-15	10
2023-12-29	6.77	6.88	13.26	32208527	Balance	-46	27
2023-12-22	6.69	6.88	16.22	31710334	Balance	-57	35
2023-12-15	6.87	6.90	17.77	44713214	Balance	-35	20
2023-12-08	6.73	6.91	13.90	43328600	Balance	-55	35
2023-12-01	6.75	6.91	12.68	28302432	Balance	-40	20
2023-11-24	6.82	6.91	13.00	29563619	Balance	-35	19
2023-11-17	6.79	6.90	11.28	30027046	Balance	-20	16
2023-11-10	6.82	6.89	12.38	37885800	Balance	-23	31
2023-11-03	6.77	6.87	13.32	33910337	Balance	-23	37
2023-10-27	6.80	6.86	15.42	39510645	Balance	-12	26
2023-10-20	6.63	6.85	15.36	30644725	Balance	-27	27
2023-10-13	6.75	6.84	12.18	31996756	Balance	-1	6
2023-09-29	6.95	6.83	15.48	22176309	Balance	25	14

Price vs TrendBelow-2.9%

Trend directionFalling-2.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+17.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+2.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+16.6%

Price momentumNegative-2.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-60 / ±100

-74.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

52 /100

+20.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

000685 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance27

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration41

Rotation Down71

Downward Expansion81

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 32%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-1.3%
Rotation Up	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-2.2%
Balance	2026-08-21	2026-09-04	New	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-08-14	Established	-1.3%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+0.9%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2026-03-20	Established	-10.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2025-11-21	Established	+25.7%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-18	New	+4.2%
Rotation Down	2025-05-30	2025-06-20	New	+0.4%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	-0.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-04-25	Developing	+1.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-02-07	New	+1.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2025-01-10	Established	+1.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing25

Stage 3 · Distribution46

Stage 4 · Declining75

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 50/100
Current Relative Strength: 2.89
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -2.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +8.8%
Utilities regime cohort: 19th percentile32 in cohort

Test 000685 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.75×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 000685 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 10.78falling

Slow Activity CNY 11.00falling

Trend Reference CNY 11.05-2.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 9.17+17.0% close margin

Structural low CNY 9.93shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.7%

Annualized volatility +23.8%

From structural high -27.5%

From structural low +8.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	+1.2%-11.2% to +14.8%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+0.0%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-1.1%-5.2% to +18.1%	+40.0%	+60.0%	+0.2%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	+10.6%-5.3% to +23.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+1.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+15.0%-8.6% to +38.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

000685 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map