Weekly structural research · LIS · Basic Materials

SEM Stage Analysis

Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 19.14Tenure DevelopingBenchmark PSI20.LS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -86−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 83/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 87/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +14.6%EUR 16.70 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	19.14	21.30	-11.70	128331	Downward Expansion	-86	83
2026-10-02	19.44	21.37	-11.91	119685	Downward Expansion	-82	55
2026-09-25	20.75	21.46	-8.92	112033	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2026-09-18	20.80	21.56	-7.26	75072	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2026-09-11	20.60	21.68	-8.09	57688	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-09-04	20.85	21.77	-5.73	18085	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2026-08-28	20.70	21.82	-6.89	24962	Downward Expansion	-50	44
2026-08-21	20.70	21.88	-6.20	25264	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2026-08-14	20.30	21.92	-7.05	8001	Downward Expansion	-66	77
2026-08-07	20.05	21.98	-7.54	10064	Downward Expansion	-70	83
2026-07-31	20.10	22.03	-6.77	27909	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2026-07-24	19.96	22.07	-8.48	27492	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2026-07-17	20.25	22.14	-5.65	8960	Rotation Down	-74	79
2026-07-10	20.65	22.15	-4.28	13259	Rotation Down	-43	58
2026-07-03	20.80	22.04	-5.85	38367	Deceleration	-38	37
2026-06-26	21.10	21.92	-2.47	19592	Deceleration	6	10
2026-06-19	22.15	21.78	2.82	62486	Deceleration	41	22
2026-06-12	23.32	21.58	8.58	74681	Deceleration	59	37
2026-06-05	22.50	21.39	6.96	27390	Deceleration	50	30
2026-05-29	23.13	21.23	8.43	196598	Deceleration	57	40
2026-05-22	22.98	21.06	6.90	137019	Deceleration	55	34
2026-05-15	22.40	20.90	5.85	140108	Deceleration	38	24
2026-05-08	23.03	20.75	8.51	129087	Deceleration	49	28
2026-05-01	22.59	20.61	3.42	64541	Deceleration	44	26
2026-04-24	21.62	20.47	1.39	77211	Deceleration	34	23
2026-04-17	21.91	20.36	2.18	81106	Deceleration	26	20
2026-04-10	22.70	20.22	2.91	74599	Deceleration	43	23
2026-04-03	22.20	20.06	1.69	95658	Deceleration	30	27
2026-03-27	21.55	19.91	4.29	167890	Deceleration	29	30
2026-03-20	20.65	19.78	1.61	150753	Upward Expansion	34	26
2026-03-13	21.45	19.70	1.23	151766	Upward Expansion	50	40
2026-03-06	22.10	19.58	6.78	245487	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-02-27	23.75	19.45	10.97	140581	Upward Expansion	72	75
2026-02-20	24.30	19.24	16.27	132305	Upward Expansion	85	78
2026-02-13	23.45	19.01	13.73	103200	Upward Expansion	81	67
2026-02-06	22.35	18.80	10.98	84053	Upward Expansion	71	64
2026-01-30	22.40	18.63	13.31	121573	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-01-23	21.85	18.46	12.23	158664	Upward Expansion	70	86
2026-01-16	22.00	18.30	12.30	147799	Upward Expansion	74	90
2026-01-09	21.55	18.11	11.92	108495	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-01-02	21.55	17.93	13.85	167724	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-12-26	22.00	17.78	19.74	154207	Rotation Up	85	75
2025-12-19	20.55	17.61	12.01	463842	Rotation Up	60	33
2025-12-12	17.24	17.51	-3.21	44653	Rotation Down	-23	48
2025-12-05	17.14	17.51	-6.03	79897	Rotation Down	-24	50
2025-11-28	16.86	17.49	-6.57	101200	Upward Expansion	-30	48
2025-11-21	16.32	17.48	-8.93	145632	Upward Expansion	-42	36
2025-11-14	17.62	17.46	-4.07	64781	Upward Expansion	19	15
2025-11-07	17.66	17.38	-3.11	103589	Upward Expansion	28	17
2025-10-31	18.10	17.29	-3.51	123926	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-10-24	18.10	17.16	-2.81	190788	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-10-17	17.90	17.06	-2.69	84983	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-10-10	18.72	16.95	2.99	223349	Upward Expansion	77	67
2025-10-03	18.50	16.81	2.60	138669	Upward Expansion	75	56
2025-09-26	18.22	16.69	3.25	110300	Upward Expansion	69	46
2025-09-19	17.84	16.56	4.58	130841	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-09-12	17.84	16.47	4.20	127110	Upward Expansion	60	45
2025-09-05	17.76	16.39	4.56	85460	Upward Expansion	60	47
2025-08-29	17.66	16.31	3.46	80745	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-08-22	18.08	16.20	3.19	135959	Upward Expansion	72	74
2025-08-15	17.84	16.07	4.62	133329	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-08-08	18.24	15.95	7.18	218759	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-08-01	17.50	15.80	5.14	125642	Upward Expansion	67	63
2025-07-25	17.34	15.68	3.24	91327	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-07-18	17.36	15.55	3.87	97489	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-07-11	17.30	15.40	2.90	88991	Deceleration	67	47
2025-07-04	17.18	15.27	1.64	163416	Deceleration	52	34
2025-06-27	16.92	15.14	3.58	170521	Deceleration	48	33
2025-06-20	16.38	15.02	1.43	161436	Upward Expansion	45	35
2025-06-13	16.30	14.92	0.60	379021	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-06-06	16.97	14.84	5.17	261532	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-05-30	16.99	14.73	6.41	145428	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-05-23	17.28	14.62	9.27	171762	Upward Expansion	78	90
2025-05-16	17.34	14.52	11.23	176808	Upward Expansion	88	92
2025-05-09	16.63	14.42	10.65	184117	Upward Expansion	82	86
2025-05-02	16.59	14.34	10.99	156256	Upward Expansion	86	78
2025-04-25	15.58	14.26	4.75	151054	Upward Expansion	70	44
2025-04-18	15.17	14.21	5.19	67355	Deceleration	61	36
2025-04-11	14.93	14.16	6.90	252372	Deceleration	45	27
2025-04-04	14.45	14.13	1.76	163477	Deceleration	38	22
2025-03-28	14.95	14.11	0.44	143382	Deceleration	49	30
2025-03-21	14.76	14.08	1.35	117169	Upward Expansion	41	24
2025-03-14	14.47	14.04	-0.23	145851	Upward Expansion	46	32
2025-03-07	14.70	14.02	0.69	224075	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-02-28	14.51	13.99	-0.24	200617	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-02-21	15.20	13.97	6.02	63870	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-02-14	15.41	13.95	8.60	220226	Rotation Up	88	91
2025-02-07	15.30	13.92	10.40	176579	Rotation Up	63	75
2025-01-31	14.49	13.89	4.59	96942	Rotation Up	37	46
2025-01-24	14.10	13.88	2.24	125090	Downward Expansion	13	25
2025-01-17	14.06	13.87	1.10	138590	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2025-01-10	13.73	13.86	3.00	108298	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2025-01-03	13.89	13.86	2.08	70486	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2024-12-27	13.50	13.86	0.57	67931	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-12-20	13.06	13.89	-1.07	145535	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-12-13	13.23	13.96	-0.85	101433	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2024-12-06	13.25	14.02	-0.26	225421	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2024-11-29	13.29	14.08	-1.05	164527	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2024-11-22	13.50	14.12	0.82	119075	Balance	-63	53
2024-11-15	13.79	14.15	2.81	144757	Balance	-49	34
2024-11-08	13.62	14.16	2.30	204320	Balance	-47	24
2024-11-01	13.91	14.17	1.29	228169	Balance	-19	15
2024-10-25	14.14	14.18	4.38	90250	Balance	12	18
2024-10-18	14.29	14.17	3.15	60809	Balance	15	18
2024-10-11	14.45	14.14	3.04	94494	Balance	9	11
2024-10-04	14.08	14.08	2.13	105160	Balance	-2	5
2024-09-27	13.95	14.03	-1.24	120254	Balance	-8	8
2024-09-20	13.93	13.98	-0.04	90212	Balance	-19	12
2024-09-13	14.06	13.95	-0.81	94836	Rotation Down	-22	18
2024-09-06	13.71	13.92	-1.45	114393	Rotation Down	-29	34
2024-08-30	13.93	13.88	-0.47	117884	Deceleration	-14	24
2024-08-23	13.79	13.85	-0.47	89185	Deceleration	-14	19
2024-08-16	13.77	13.83	0.08	103701	Deceleration	6	10
2024-08-09	13.71	13.80	1.29	131998	Deceleration	17	10
2024-08-02	14.02	13.75	3.05	124211	Deceleration	34	24
2024-07-26	14.54	13.70	5.76	221491	Deceleration	45	31
2024-07-19	14.62	13.63	4.42	246394	Deceleration	46	27
2024-07-12	14.41	13.56	2.94	104230	Deceleration	27	14
2024-07-05	14.04	13.48	2.44	108609	Deceleration	11	19
2024-06-28	13.87	13.43	4.35	127940	Deceleration	22	26
2024-06-21	13.85	13.38	2.87	145386	Deceleration	27	28
2024-06-14	13.48	13.33	0.69	214463	Upward Expansion	27	19
2024-06-07	14.06	13.30	1.87	239610	Upward Expansion	51	43
2024-05-31	14.39	13.26	2.24	242196	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-05-24	15.20	13.20	7.64	155878	Upward Expansion	80	81
2024-05-17	14.98	13.11	6.41	256946	Upward Expansion	79	87
2024-05-10	14.98	13.03	6.21	197054	Upward Expansion	86	91
2024-05-03	14.43	12.95	6.52	96935	Upward Expansion	73	85
2024-04-26	14.59	12.88	8.53	142420	Upward Expansion	86	93
2024-04-19	14.11	12.82	10.56	117553	Upward Expansion	75	87
2024-04-12	13.94	12.76	8.86	195882	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-04-05	14.06	12.70	12.07	158905	Upward Expansion	82	83
2024-03-29	13.78	12.63	9.10	116916	Upward Expansion	80	68
2024-03-22	13.35	12.58	6.87	182605	Upward Expansion	69	32
2024-03-15	12.69	12.55	3.28	70325	Upward Expansion	31	17
2024-03-08	12.63	12.53	2.49	100360	Upward Expansion	36	19
2024-03-01	12.61	12.51	1.68	99657	Upward Expansion	50	27
2024-02-23	12.96	12.49	3.79	151975	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-02-16	12.96	12.46	4.62	79801	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-02-09	12.67	12.44	3.64	100914	Upward Expansion	61	69
2024-02-02	13.11	12.41	5.21	75507	Upward Expansion	77	76
2024-01-26	13.11	12.37	5.21	189259	Balance	76	65
2024-01-19	12.71	12.34	1.65	173444	Balance	46	29
2024-01-12	12.41	12.32	-3.91	137418	Balance	26	12
2024-01-05	12.50	12.32	-3.03	68536	Balance	19	10
2023-12-29	12.39	12.32	-1.75	69913	Balance	11	12
2023-12-22	12.41	12.30	-1.93	104666	Balance	12	11
2023-12-15	12.24	12.29	-3.23	95475	Balance	15	13
2023-12-08	12.35	12.29	-4.40	120440	Upward Expansion	29	15
2023-12-01	12.47	12.28	-2.96	88065	Upward Expansion	37	20
2023-11-24	12.45	12.27	-0.08	100880	Upward Expansion	41	26
2023-11-17	12.54	12.25	1.59	69401	Upward Expansion	53	32
2023-11-10	12.69	12.22	3.40	120746	Upward Expansion	61	40
2023-11-03	12.69	12.20	1.10	161427	Upward Expansion	65	48
2023-10-27	12.43	12.18	2.24	125375	Upward Expansion	57	43
2023-10-20	12.63	12.16	7.13	104593	Upward Expansion	65	61

Price vs TrendBelow-10.1%

Trend directionFalling-3.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+14.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-14.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.4%

Price momentumNegative-15.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.33×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-86 / ±100

-45.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

83 /100

+56.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SEM Directional State ↗ SEM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration39

Rotation Down69

Downward Expansion87

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 47%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 14%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-10-09	Developing	-4.1%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	-1.9%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-07-03	Established	-3.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-03-20	Developing	-4.2%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	+7.1%
Rotation Down	2025-12-05	2025-12-12	New	+0.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-11-28	Established	-2.9%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-07-11	New	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-06-20	Developing	+5.1%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	+1.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-03-21	Developing	-2.9%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-14	New	+6.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-01-24	Developing	+6.1%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-11-22	Developing	-3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus PSI20.LS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.70
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -15.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.7%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 67th percentile3 in cohort

Test SEM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.39×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.33×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SEM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 19.86falling

Slow Activity EUR 20.85falling

Trend Reference EUR 21.30-10.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 16.70+14.6% close margin

Structural low EUR 18.74shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +2.8%

Annualized volatility +18.7%

From structural high -22.5%

From structural low +20.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs PSI20.LS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+4.4%+0.5% to +9.6%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+2.3%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	+9.1%+3.5% to +24.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+3.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+19.1%+18.1% to +27.9%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+29.2%+26.9% to +31.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+15.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SEM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map