Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Financial Services

NPB Stage Analysis

Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 15.35Tenure NewBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -75โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 76/100directional strength
Maturity 18/100lifecycle context
Confidence 85/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -5.9%USD 16.32 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 86 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0215.3517.49-18.841304468Downward Expansion-7576
2026-09-2515.3717.59-19.321362054Downward Expansion-7969
2026-09-1816.4517.67-13.041994254Downward Expansion-6446
2026-09-1117.2217.72-9.50923315Downward Expansion-5033
2026-09-0417.2817.74-10.251135561Rotation Down-5135
2026-08-2817.0417.73-11.84707307Rotation Down-3036
2026-08-2117.2117.74-10.921311672Rotation Down-1626
2026-08-1417.50โ€”โ€”709058Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-0717.11โ€”โ€”794444Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-3117.50โ€”โ€”1030750Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-2417.19โ€”โ€”1341559Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-1718.79โ€”โ€”751513Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-1018.67โ€”โ€”706204Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-0318.92โ€”โ€”916912Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-2618.88โ€”โ€”1904683Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-1917.83โ€”โ€”531721Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-1218.26โ€”โ€”712627Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-0517.45โ€”โ€”620454Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-2917.08โ€”โ€”398139Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-2217.34โ€”โ€”614955Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-1517.12โ€”โ€”726272Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0817.78โ€”โ€”582250Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0117.83โ€”โ€”699057Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-2417.61โ€”โ€”945619Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1719.19โ€”โ€”843396Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1018.58โ€”โ€”940238Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-0317.44โ€”โ€”500963Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2716.88โ€”โ€”1300491Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2016.41โ€”โ€”915154Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-1317.52โ€”โ€”996934Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-0618.13โ€”โ€”1355558Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2718.04โ€”โ€”789854Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2017.95โ€”โ€”1129811Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-1317.57โ€”โ€”1065199Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-0617.21โ€”โ€”1294117Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3017.22โ€”โ€”1379332Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2318.10โ€”โ€”2542980Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1618.77โ€”โ€”2469408Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0917.25โ€”โ€”4087981Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0216.63โ€”โ€”609334Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2617.14โ€”โ€”872166Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1916.95โ€”โ€”3367242Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1217.39โ€”โ€”1575478Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0517.50โ€”โ€”1088169Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2817.39โ€”โ€”424951Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2116.34โ€”โ€”630460Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1416.79โ€”โ€”943059Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0715.81โ€”โ€”601052Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3115.81โ€”โ€”491189Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2416.70โ€”โ€”658229Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1716.66โ€”โ€”584326Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1016.58โ€”โ€”465263Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0317.45โ€”โ€”547348Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2617.83โ€”โ€”826297Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1918.40โ€”โ€”1318600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1218.10โ€”โ€”800338Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0518.57โ€”โ€”701316Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2917.75โ€”โ€”894922Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2217.10โ€”โ€”979041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1516.12โ€”โ€”989461Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0814.79โ€”โ€”602083Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0114.44โ€”โ€”945881Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2514.52โ€”โ€”605676Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1814.86โ€”โ€”598429Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1114.67โ€”โ€”916694Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0414.64โ€”โ€”574204Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2714.10โ€”โ€”2349371Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2012.99โ€”โ€”443050Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1312.86โ€”โ€”594844Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0613.10โ€”โ€”210081Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3013.06โ€”โ€”290369Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2313.32โ€”โ€”237079Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1613.89โ€”โ€”267370Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0913.65โ€”โ€”236335Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0213.93โ€”โ€”333895Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2513.96โ€”โ€”721207Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1811.68โ€”โ€”1425792Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1112.61โ€”โ€”367797Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0412.80โ€”โ€”604719Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2814.44โ€”โ€”357703Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2114.39โ€”โ€”1316985Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1413.78โ€”โ€”589102Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0713.90โ€”โ€”395823Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2814.39โ€”โ€”538589Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2114.37โ€”โ€”846782Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1414.39โ€”โ€”2706961Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-12.3%
Trend directionFalling-1.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-5.9%
Fair Value directionMoving away-22.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.8%
Relative strength directionWeakening-18.9%
Price momentumNegative-12.0%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.35ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-75 / ยฑ100

-24.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

76 /100

+40.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance16
Rotation Up10
Upward Expansion17
Deceleration37
Rotation Down74
Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2025-02-14 to 2026-10-02 ยท 7 classified observations out of 86 shown.

Rotation Down 43%Downward Expansion 57%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-09-112026-10-02New-10.9%
Rotation Down2026-08-212026-09-04New+0.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing45
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution50
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
98/100
Current Relative Strength
-18.84
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-12.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-29.6%
Financial Services regime cohort
70th percentile60 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.32ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.35ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 15.95falling
Slow Activity USD 17.31falling
Trend Reference USD 17.49-12.3% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 16.32-5.9% close margin
Structural low USD 14.20shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.9%
Annualized volatility +27.2%
From structural high -22.0%
From structural low +8.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context