Weekly structural research ยท NASDAQ ยท Technology

RZLV Stage Analysis

Rezolve AI Limited Ordinary Shares

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.91Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -75โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 72/100directional strength
Maturity 23/100lifecycle context
Confidence 84/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -42.3%USD 3.31 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 113 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-091.912.51-40.4880142111Downward Expansion-7572
2026-10-022.062.53-37.4143112484Downward Expansion-6767
2026-09-252.182.56-35.7147553948Balance-6154
2026-09-182.272.56-32.8539778553Balance-5341
2026-09-112.292.56-33.8151107684Balance-5132
2026-09-042.212.56-38.53167527849Balance-157
2026-08-282.972.57-18.46179832511Balance5731
2026-08-212.462.56-32.8038905687Balance-55
2026-08-142.672.58-29.4046248531Balance-2411
2026-08-072.732.65-27.4446734592Balance-3526
2026-07-312.432.68-32.4940526310Balance-4840
2026-07-242.242.69-37.8336688429Balance-5436
2026-07-172.312.72-37.3660716907Balance-5126
2026-07-102.602.72-32.8547682853Balance-198
2026-07-032.842.72-25.59115430009Balance-64
2026-06-262.412.72-36.5777667123Balance-4521
2026-06-192.722.74-32.0247818290Balance-137
2026-06-122.682.75-31.2383095872Balance-198
2026-06-052.302.76-39.6590075908Balance-4418
2026-05-292.982.81-25.4971815424Balance-75
2026-05-222.632.85-32.2952087195Downward Expansion-4422
2026-05-152.552.92-33.67104886062Downward Expansion-4625
2026-05-082.403.00-38.0079399412Downward Expansion-5126
2026-05-012.673.09-27.4453399391Downward Expansion-3419
2026-04-242.623.23-27.8766846885Downward Expansion-3416
2026-04-172.703.34-24.1685703593Downward Expansion-3519
2026-04-102.383.47-28.7797772643Downward Expansion-4323
2026-04-033.113.62-2.30186996099Downward Expansion-3218
2026-03-272.393.66-21.3061779418Downward Expansion-4728
2026-03-202.533.70-18.9660773661Downward Expansion-5433
2026-03-132.693.72-15.2654460601Downward Expansion-5538
2026-03-062.733.73-14.6772110380Downward Expansion-6061
2026-02-272.333.74-27.6754555024Downward Expansion-6470
2026-02-202.153.76-33.3772803790Downward Expansion-6973
2026-02-132.27โ€”โ€”103394329Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-062.73โ€”โ€”125478576Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-302.58โ€”โ€”141285907Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-233.14โ€”โ€”220578063Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-164.61โ€”โ€”185366681Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-093.68โ€”โ€”123546419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-022.87โ€”โ€”64757666Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-262.85โ€”โ€”70919594Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-192.55โ€”โ€”243255493Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-122.57โ€”โ€”53779069Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-052.79โ€”โ€”77321529Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-283.05โ€”โ€”49369026Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-213.00โ€”โ€”82952361Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-142.95โ€”โ€”75425685Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-073.83โ€”โ€”46873895Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-314.29โ€”โ€”49726249Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-244.72โ€”โ€”65055982Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-174.87โ€”โ€”102720218Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-105.13โ€”โ€”116086226Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-036.79โ€”โ€”270437651Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-265.95โ€”โ€”89506685Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-196.66โ€”โ€”147646850Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-126.76โ€”โ€”146636126Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-054.27โ€”โ€”66827970Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-293.74โ€”โ€”61342289Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-223.06โ€”โ€”63705660Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-153.02โ€”โ€”41674420Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-083.00โ€”โ€”34853525Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-012.93โ€”โ€”39354042Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-252.95โ€”โ€”81061442Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-182.82โ€”โ€”39270760Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-112.54โ€”โ€”36079433Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-042.82โ€”โ€”37369826Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-272.74โ€”โ€”135854706Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-201.92โ€”โ€”13362253Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-132.03โ€”โ€”23961336Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-062.04โ€”โ€”12897735Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-302.00โ€”โ€”13495405Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-232.11โ€”โ€”17988737Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-162.41โ€”โ€”24158825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-092.03โ€”โ€”23224575Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-022.26โ€”โ€”40092013Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-252.09โ€”โ€”33409301Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-181.40โ€”โ€”21948786Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-111.14โ€”โ€”13366706Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-041.29โ€”โ€”12939320Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-281.31โ€”โ€”16866558Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-211.65โ€”โ€”11163464Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-141.87โ€”โ€”15937050Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-071.45โ€”โ€”21285861Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-281.83โ€”โ€”19178254Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-212.55โ€”โ€”17511529Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-142.92โ€”โ€”36839304Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-073.14โ€”โ€”38399679Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-312.50โ€”โ€”21412262Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-242.87โ€”โ€”45094665Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-172.84โ€”โ€”49964813Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-103.21โ€”โ€”40064622Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-034.32โ€”โ€”59702999Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-274.60โ€”โ€”117643393Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-202.96โ€”โ€”151648807Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-131.99โ€”โ€”97356598Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-061.83โ€”โ€”6935411Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-292.12โ€”โ€”5142895Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-221.82โ€”โ€”13872768Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-152.73โ€”โ€”857036Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-084.44โ€”โ€”258843Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-014.50โ€”โ€”387231Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-255.08โ€”โ€”425988Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-185.28โ€”โ€”824076Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-116.87โ€”โ€”2089491Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-046.91โ€”โ€”6156530Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-277.38โ€”โ€”4442072Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-206.36โ€”โ€”8487255Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-136.33โ€”โ€”252952Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-069.30โ€”โ€”152649Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-308.78โ€”โ€”287171Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2310.05โ€”โ€”610576Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1610.19โ€”โ€”194233Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-23.8%
Trend directionFalling-6.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-42.3%
Fair Value directionMoving away-18.0%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-40.5%
Relative strength directionWeakening-7.6%
Price momentumNegative-19.7%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.57ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-75 / ยฑ100

-24.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

72 /100

+40.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance29
Rotation Up10
Upward Expansion15
Deceleration37
Rotation Down78
Downward Expansion93

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-08-16 to 2026-10-09 ยท 34 classified observations out of 113 shown.

Balance 53%Downward Expansion 47%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-10-022026-10-09New-7.3%
Balance2026-05-292026-09-25Established-26.8%
Downward Expansion2026-02-202026-05-22Established+22.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing51
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution21
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
95/100
Current Relative Strength
-40.48
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-19.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-42.7%
Technology regime cohort
44th percentile170 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.13ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+75.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 2.08falling
Slow Activity USD 2.44falling
Trend Reference USD 2.51-23.8% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 3.31-42.3% close margin
Structural low USD 1.86shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +17.4%
Annualized volatility +85.3%
From structural high -66.8%
From structural low +2.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs QQQ Regime survived Read
Near term4+5.9%-5.6% to +17.7%+75.0%+25.0%-0.8%+75.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate2+7.9%-6.5% to +22.3%+50.0%+50.0%-0.7%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+14.4%+14.4% to +14.4%+100.0%+0.0%-2.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context