Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

LYL Stage Analysis

Lycopodium Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 23.11Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 67−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 70/100directional strength

Maturity 54/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +86.3%AUD 12.40 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	23.11	17.40	47.63	650974	Upward Expansion	67	70
2026-10-02	23.62	17.08	53.61	247415	Upward Expansion	80	76
2026-09-25	23.39	16.75	54.74	469957	Upward Expansion	84	86
2026-09-18	22.67	16.44	51.15	665628	Upward Expansion	80	90
2026-09-11	21.67	16.17	46.37	737853	Upward Expansion	73	88
2026-09-04	21.32	15.93	41.61	44567	Upward Expansion	72	88
2026-08-28	21.88	15.73	45.65	31284	Upward Expansion	86	87
2026-08-21	21.95	15.52	48.60	164925	Upward Expansion	90	68
2026-08-14	18.67	15.28	27.32	9452	Upward Expansion	66	55
2026-08-07	18.95	15.16	28.28	85471	Upward Expansion	71	59
2026-07-31	17.80	15.01	25.49	37055	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-07-24	18.67	14.88	35.89	10233	Upward Expansion	72	68
2026-07-17	18.41	14.72	34.99	18232	Upward Expansion	70	83
2026-07-10	18.88	14.55	39.73	71974	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-07-03	17.34	14.36	29.12	26210	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-06-26	18.15	14.21	37.69	53875	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-06-19	18.46	14.03	40.64	51278	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-06-12	15.62	13.83	20.75	11083	Rotation Up	66	75
2026-06-05	16.05	13.74	27.66	410043	Rotation Up	50	47
2026-05-29	14.82	13.61	17.45	51615	Rotation Down	21	17
2026-05-22	12.90	13.53	3.76	123157	Rotation Down	-30	27
2026-05-15	12.80	13.52	3.55	152506	Rotation Down	-33	31
2026-05-08	13.19	13.50	5.60	103164	Rotation Down	-31	36
2026-05-01	12.75	13.47	2.60	157230	Rotation Down	-37	43
2026-04-24	12.80	13.44	2.59	173167	Rotation Down	-28	40
2026-04-17	12.76	13.40	0.63	191199	Rotation Down	-29	41
2026-04-10	13.24	13.37	4.38	125577	Deceleration	-20	24
2026-04-03	13.31	13.32	9.87	132178	Deceleration	0	16
2026-03-27	13.22	13.28	10.34	133806	Deceleration	-2	18
2026-03-20	13.48	13.22	14.06	204629	Deceleration	13	19
2026-03-13	13.78	13.16	14.51	223415	Deceleration	26	22
2026-03-06	13.47	13.09	9.58	465249	Deceleration	27	21
2026-02-27	14.10	13.02	10.83	527527	Upward Expansion	45	32
2026-02-20	14.61	12.91	16.86	328736	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-02-13	14.60	12.80	19.61	157157	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-02-06	15.25	12.68	28.57	236472	Upward Expansion	72	78
2026-01-30	15.45	12.55	28.76	114170	Upward Expansion	83	89
2026-01-23	14.81	12.38	24.40	161535	Upward Expansion	73	86
2026-01-16	15.23	12.22	28.07	243744	Upward Expansion	91	94
2026-01-09	14.48	12.05	25.20	186833	Upward Expansion	86	89
2026-01-02	13.88	11.90	20.63	66672	Upward Expansion	79	83
2025-12-26	13.83	11.78	20.49	64014	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-12-19	13.24	11.67	17.96	172976	Upward Expansion	74	69
2025-12-12	13.14	11.58	16.56	147375	Upward Expansion	73	65
2025-12-05	12.86	11.50	15.57	228375	Upward Expansion	69	61
2025-11-28	12.66	11.42	14.64	211303	Upward Expansion	63	46
2025-11-21	12.61	11.35	17.46	229582	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-11-14	12.90	11.28	17.72	224876	Upward Expansion	74	53
2025-11-07	12.06	11.20	8.89	147160	Upward Expansion	61	47
2025-10-31	12.40	11.12	10.55	253335	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-10-24	12.67	11.04	11.38	264837	Upward Expansion	76	68
2025-10-17	12.21	10.96	7.80	113993	Upward Expansion	65	46
2025-10-10	12.20	10.89	8.29	163831	Upward Expansion	68	46
2025-10-03	12.00	10.80	6.25	96477	Upward Expansion	62	41
2025-09-26	11.58	10.73	4.78	92031	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-09-19	11.82	10.67	6.93	191504	Upward Expansion	61	45
2025-09-12	11.69	10.61	4.64	174385	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-09-05	12.05	10.59	7.59	261330	Upward Expansion	74	59
2025-08-29	11.46	10.54	1.19	148610	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-08-22	11.68	10.52	2.98	386892	Upward Expansion	71	62
2025-08-15	11.73	10.49	3.59	218616	Upward Expansion	80	77
2025-08-08	11.33	10.44	1.09	109325	Upward Expansion	71	74
2025-08-01	10.91	10.40	-1.55	98134	Upward Expansion	61	72
2025-07-25	11.30	10.36	1.41	102782	Upward Expansion	73	78
2025-07-18	11.09	10.30	-2.01	133918	Rotation Up	68	65
2025-07-11	11.27	10.25	1.16	273941	Rotation Up	67	42
2025-07-04	10.43	10.19	-6.95	141547	Balance	-2	12
2025-06-27	9.94	10.17	-10.81	160392	Balance	-11	20
2025-06-20	10.09	10.16	-9.80	172292	Upward Expansion	16	17
2025-06-13	10.02	10.14	-11.24	130050	Upward Expansion	18	10
2025-06-06	10.26	10.14	-9.11	124225	Upward Expansion	47	27
2025-05-30	10.41	10.17	-7.24	196458	Upward Expansion	52	40
2025-05-23	10.76	10.18	-3.61	80028	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-05-16	10.69	10.18	-4.27	131493	Balance	57	47
2025-05-09	10.34	10.17	-6.30	216400	Balance	46	35
2025-05-02	10.50	10.19	-5.16	153319	Balance	24	22
2025-04-25	10.50	10.21	-2.24	98956	Balance	13	9
2025-04-18	10.46	10.25	-1.02	156871	Balance	-8	7
2025-04-11	9.88	10.28	-4.44	277052	Balance	-48	19
2025-04-04	9.83	10.33	-5.21	124906	Balance	-52	25
2025-03-28	10.46	10.37	-3.20	262624	Balance	-26	20
2025-03-21	10.13	10.40	-5.71	152464	Balance	-44	37
2025-03-14	9.55	10.44	-9.66	270151	Balance	-57	46
2025-03-07	9.71	10.56	-10.20	239800	Balance	-50	34
2025-02-28	9.91	10.65	-11.15	278517	Rotation Up	-36	18
2025-02-21	9.93	10.75	-12.59	475401	Rotation Up	-17	22
2025-02-14	10.97	10.85	-6.65	238003	Rotation Up	19	42
2025-02-07	10.73	10.90	-8.36	130264	Downward Expansion	5	30
2025-01-31	10.80	10.95	-8.21	151891	Downward Expansion	6	27
2025-01-24	10.66	10.99	-8.19	165474	Downward Expansion	-20	24
2025-01-17	10.41	11.03	-9.47	195550	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2025-01-10	10.20	11.06	-11.28	253270	Downward Expansion	-51	45
2025-01-03	9.56	11.09	-16.64	62596	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2024-12-27	9.57	11.15	-16.97	95757	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2024-12-20	9.65	11.20	-14.47	151980	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-12-13	9.51	11.26	-18.28	289279	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2024-12-06	9.75	11.31	-17.63	341685	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2024-11-29	9.64	11.36	-18.83	287091	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-11-22	9.55	11.42	-19.43	455675	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2024-11-15	9.86	11.47	-15.87	672222	Downward Expansion	-76	59
2024-11-08	11.15	11.49	-5.16	184667	Rotation Down	-56	46
2024-11-01	10.92	11.46	-4.97	311200	Rotation Down	-31	46
2024-10-25	10.51	11.44	-9.39	245322	Rotation Down	-40	51
2024-10-18	10.60	11.45	-9.29	329661	Balance	-37	33
2024-10-11	10.89	11.45	-5.80	310064	Balance	-24	22
2024-10-04	11.19	11.45	-2.27	217538	Balance	-17	17
2024-09-27	11.65	11.46	1.19	138261	Balance	-14	20
2024-09-20	11.28	11.44	-1.59	350904	Balance	-14	25
2024-09-13	11.47	11.43	1.61	288465	Balance	-13	25
2024-09-06	10.86	11.41	-2.48	426153	Upward Expansion	3	17
2024-08-30	11.50	11.40	2.44	308098	Upward Expansion	26	17
2024-08-23	11.23	11.38	1.21	665480	Upward Expansion	31	25
2024-08-16	13.07	11.35	18.83	215822	Upward Expansion	72	67
2024-08-09	12.58	11.25	18.09	324290	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-08-02	12.85	11.19	18.95	278662	Upward Expansion	74	81
2024-07-26	12.98	11.12	21.31	225189	Upward Expansion	83	82
2024-07-19	12.32	11.04	15.22	274356	Upward Expansion	71	73
2024-07-12	12.37	10.97	16.44	327401	Upward Expansion	76	73
2024-07-05	11.86	10.88	14.26	237491	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-06-28	11.82	10.80	15.25	304863	Upward Expansion	68	43
2024-06-21	11.59	10.72	13.01	343267	Upward Expansion	62	35
2024-06-14	11.06	10.64	9.36	131625	Upward Expansion	50	30
2024-06-07	11.18	10.58	8.99	184829	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-05-31	11.26	10.50	12.27	124946	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-05-24	11.33	10.40	13.07	158124	Upward Expansion	60	57
2024-05-17	11.08	10.29	9.81	213230	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-05-10	11.29	10.18	13.15	339630	Balance	56	40
2024-05-03	11.28	10.08	15.10	264141	Balance	57	29
2024-04-26	11.03	9.98	13.86	214259	Balance	27	16
2024-04-19	10.43	9.89	8.11	326394	Balance	12	15
2024-04-12	10.30	9.83	3.98	422581	Upward Expansion	24	18
2024-04-05	10.30	9.78	4.42	325542	Upward Expansion	33	18
2024-03-29	10.81	9.72	8.44	286227	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-03-22	10.79	9.65	10.66	433083	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-03-15	10.85	9.59	13.36	326498	Upward Expansion	62	49
2024-03-08	11.43	9.49	17.57	290903	Upward Expansion	76	57
2024-03-01	11.14	9.38	17.02	258698	Upward Expansion	71	55
2024-02-23	10.86	9.29	16.43	395466	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-02-16	10.74	9.21	15.75	226647	Upward Expansion	66	56
2024-02-09	10.80	9.14	17.66	146632	Upward Expansion	70	56
2024-02-02	10.76	9.07	17.51	189776	Upward Expansion	72	59
2024-01-26	10.32	8.99	16.05	108767	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-01-19	10.22	8.95	18.20	71951	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-01-12	10.73	8.88	24.10	166863	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-01-05	10.66	8.82	24.83	106789	Upward Expansion	82	91
2023-12-29	10.48	8.76	22.42	90304	Upward Expansion	85	91
2023-12-22	10.41	8.69	24.27	193085	Upward Expansion	90	88
2023-12-15	9.57	8.63	16.30	272078	Upward Expansion	72	77
2023-12-08	9.41	8.61	19.28	261487	Rotation Up	69	77
2023-12-01	9.38	8.60	22.13	147848	Rotation Up	43	62
2023-11-24	9.22	8.59	21.86	257395	Balance	30	36
2023-11-17	9.31	8.57	24.12	344851	Balance	28	22
2023-11-10	8.70	8.56	18.36	409100	Downward Expansion	-26	17
2023-11-03	8.38	8.56	14.94	174809	Downward Expansion	-55	51
2023-10-27	7.90	8.52	11.61	143405	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2023-10-20	7.87	8.50	10.71	156228	Balance	-70	59

Price vs TrendAbove+32.8%

Trend directionRising+15.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+86.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+20.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+47.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.9%

Price momentumPositive+74.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.01×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

67 / ±100

-5.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

70 /100

-18.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LYL Directional State ↗ LYL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up70

Upward Expansion89

Deceleration51

Rotation Down18

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 57%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-10-09	Established	+25.2%
Rotation Up	2026-06-05	2026-06-12	New	-2.7%
Rotation Down	2026-04-17	2026-05-29	Developing	+16.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-04-10	Developing	-1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-25	2026-02-27	Extended	+24.7%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-07-18	New	-1.5%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-07-04	New	+4.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	-6.2%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-05-16	Developing	+10.1%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	-9.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-02-07	Established	+8.8%
Rotation Down	2024-10-25	2024-11-08	New	+6.1%
Balance	2024-09-13	2024-10-18	Developing	-7.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-09-06	Established	-2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing20

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution50

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: 47.63
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +74.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +77.3%
Industrials regime cohort: 74th percentile31 in cohort

Test LYL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.01×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LYL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 23.15rising

Slow Activity AUD 19.40rising

Trend Reference AUD 17.40+32.8% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 12.40+86.3% close margin

Structural low AUD 12.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +43.2%

From structural high -6.7%

From structural low +94.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	42	+2.5%-13.7% to +31.1%	+69.0%	+69.0%	+2.5%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+8.3%-11.7% to +55.2%	+78.6%	+78.6%	+9.1%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+16.9%-14.1% to +52.9%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+11.8%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+32.3%+1.8% to +81.1%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+28.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LYL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map