Weekly structural research · SAU · Technology

9538 Stage Analysis

Naseej for Technology Co.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close SAR 21.15Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^TASI.SR

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 74/100directional strength

Maturity 72/100lifecycle context

Confidence 93/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -40.4%SAR 35.51 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	21.15	24.00	-19.55	231	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2026-09-18	21.38	24.25	-20.65	7204	Downward Expansion	-67	55
2026-09-11	21.48	24.51	-22.58	1978	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2026-09-04	22.14	24.86	-21.11	5484	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2026-08-28	22.62	25.16	-21.52	4087	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2026-08-21	21.81	25.44	-22.99	1961	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2026-08-14	23.18	25.76	-17.76	1434	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-08-07	22.40	26.10	-21.05	2822	Downward Expansion	-62	37
2026-07-31	23.00	26.44	-17.55	291	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2026-07-24	23.51	26.79	-17.90	6237	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2026-07-17	23.75	27.11	-17.02	2767	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2026-07-10	23.46	27.43	-19.18	10148	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2026-07-03	21.50	27.76	-26.44	8467	Downward Expansion	-74	53
2026-06-26	24.00	28.16	-19.11	8795	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-06-19	22.50	28.45	-25.75	17762	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2026-06-12	23.20	28.81	-23.33	6244	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2026-06-05	23.96	29.08	-20.88	10845	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-05-29	23.00	29.30	-24.72	0	Downward Expansion	-74	72
2026-05-22	23.00	29.49	-25.12	3723	Downward Expansion	-76	50
2026-05-15	27.13	29.70	-12.01	3205	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-05-08	25.67	29.84	-17.38	3182	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2026-05-01	26.27	30.08	-17.07	10016	Downward Expansion	-43	24
2026-04-24	29.27	30.29	-7.47	5275	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2026-04-17	28.60	30.45	-13.28	20646	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2026-04-10	24.61	30.59	-24.34	16077	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2026-04-03	24.67	30.87	-24.19	5274	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2026-03-27	25.07	31.15	-22.33	6562	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2026-03-20	25.40	31.42	-20.82	816	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2026-03-13	25.31	31.64	-21.37	17359	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2026-03-06	27.07	31.86	-15.68	14518	Downward Expansion	-91	92
2026-02-27	28.65	32.03	-10.78	12936	Downward Expansion	-84	82
2026-02-20	29.21	32.19	-11.46	5557	Balance	-80	73
2026-02-13	32.00	32.33	-6.16	1562	Balance	-52	40
2026-02-06	30.93	32.37	-9.21	21542	Balance	-65	51
2026-01-30	31.00	32.43	-11.11	5501	Balance	-35	29
2026-01-23	31.47	32.42	-8.19	19171	Upward Expansion	15	11
2026-01-16	33.33	32.39	-0.44	931	Upward Expansion	57	33
2026-01-09	32.73	32.28	0.61	6931	Upward Expansion	54	33
2026-01-02	33.33	32.23	1.39	0	Upward Expansion	58	48
2025-12-26	33.33	32.21	1.35	300	Upward Expansion	59	52
2025-12-19	33.33	32.15	1.76	0	Rotation Up	49	44
2025-12-12	33.33	32.19	-0.97	0	Rotation Up	23	31
2025-12-05	33.33	32.25	-0.62	4141	Balance	13	25
2025-11-28	32.67	32.31	-2.97	4201	Balance	-14	18
2025-11-21	33.33	32.45	-4.76	1394	Downward Expansion	-21	21
2025-11-14	31.33	32.52	-12.30	1324	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2025-11-07	30.67	32.70	-15.55	3149	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2025-10-31	28.67	32.90	-23.87	2362	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2025-10-24	29.33	33.27	-22.33	2292	Downward Expansion	-84	61
2025-10-17	31.33	33.63	-18.05	948	Balance	-57	31
2025-10-10	32.67	33.99	-14.05	3846	Balance	-17	10
2025-10-03	32.64	34.30	-13.73	1716	Balance	-14	12
2025-09-26	34.00	34.61	-8.91	4507	Downward Expansion	9	19
2025-09-19	33.00	34.88	-7.30	82	Downward Expansion	-19	18
2025-09-12	33.00	35.23	-4.44	165	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2025-09-05	33.00	35.62	-6.38	470	Deceleration	-41	33
2025-08-29	33.13	36.07	-6.79	765	Downward Expansion	-45	38
2025-08-22	31.96	36.40	-11.31	1	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2025-08-15	31.96	36.85	-11.12	1417	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2025-08-08	32.33	37.30	-11.05	397	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2025-08-01	33.33	37.68	-8.47	2285	Downward Expansion	-40	31
2025-07-25	33.33	38.02	-8.79	1039	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2025-07-18	33.33	38.36	-9.30	2335	Downward Expansion	-53	51
2025-07-11	32.67	38.65	-13.22	1675	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2025-07-04	30.67	39.14	-18.42	1081	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2025-06-27	30.67	39.52	-17.40	454	Downward Expansion	-72	69
2025-06-20	30.00	39.99	-15.87	5216	Downward Expansion	-84	73
2025-06-13	31.33	40.55	-14.26	288	Downward Expansion	-82	73
2025-06-06	32.67	40.94	-12.01	220	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2025-05-30	31.33	41.32	-15.65	1399	Downward Expansion	-93	77
2025-05-23	34.53	41.72	-8.80	3735	Downward Expansion	-78	70
2025-05-16	35.27	41.90	-9.34	19	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2025-05-09	35.27	42.05	-8.47	5000	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2025-05-02	36.67	42.21	-6.40	3049	Downward Expansion	-68	89
2025-04-25	35.47	42.32	-11.26	1515	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2025-04-18	36.67	42.40	-6.82	1917	Rotation Down	-89	96
2025-04-11	36.67	42.45	-6.87	2438	Rotation Down	-69	87
2025-04-04	40.00	42.56	-1.93	750	Rotation Down	-55	76
2025-03-28	40.00	42.56	-3.18	896	Rotation Down	-46	66
2025-03-21	42.00	42.56	3.75	751	Rotation Down	-25	53
2025-03-14	42.00	42.42	3.88	193	Balance	-21	35
2025-03-07	42.00	42.33	2.92	0	Balance	-0	13
2025-02-28	42.00	42.26	0.32	1471	Upward Expansion	8	7
2025-02-21	43.67	42.17	2.12	2597	Upward Expansion	46	24
2025-02-14	44.67	41.94	4.62	3529	Upward Expansion	51	34
2025-02-07	46.60	41.66	8.84	6232	Upward Expansion	65	44
2025-01-31	43.07	41.35	0.99	7231	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-01-24	45.33	41.20	6.74	16	Upward Expansion	54	31
2025-01-17	45.33	40.90	7.74	3243	Deceleration	47	25
2025-01-10	44.00	40.68	6.15	1526	Deceleration	36	17
2025-01-03	43.33	40.38	4.50	4287	Deceleration	38	24
2024-12-27	43.67	40.20	7.20	742	Deceleration	40	24
2024-12-20	42.07	39.98	2.88	17256	Upward Expansion	53	33
2024-12-13	47.33	39.88	13.84	8374	Upward Expansion	76	53
2024-12-06	42.13	39.64	3.10	4580	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-11-29	44.67	39.58	11.98	4272	Upward Expansion	64	74
2024-11-22	46.67	39.47	15.17	5740	Upward Expansion	85	85
2024-11-15	43.27	39.36	7.49	3076	Rotation Up	68	71
2024-11-08	44.00	39.63	6.32	1343	Rotation Up	49	60
2024-11-01	43.33	39.71	5.53	5902	Balance	44	46
2024-10-25	39.93	39.78	-1.90	4541	Balance	5	15
2024-10-18	39.67	40.00	-3.06	1534	Balance	-8	8
2024-10-11	40.00	40.30	-3.26	37	Balance	-5	6
2024-10-04	40.00	40.63	-3.21	6129	Balance	-15	9
2024-09-27	38.00	40.83	-11.33	1	Balance	-33	16
2024-09-20	38.00	40.90	-9.55	3000	Balance	-19	13
2024-09-13	40.00	40.97	-3.35	4756	Balance	-8	10
2024-09-06	40.00	40.99	-5.70	993	Balance	-10	11
2024-08-30	40.00	41.00	-6.46	8804	Downward Expansion	-15	13
2024-08-23	37.93	41.11	-11.86	4184	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-08-16	39.20	41.22	-7.27	1499	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2024-08-09	40.00	41.27	-3.85	375	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-08-02	39.33	41.38	-8.81	3208	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2024-07-26	36.67	41.63	-15.23	4778	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2024-07-19	36.40	41.90	-17.45	1321	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2024-07-12	37.27	41.97	-13.23	2009	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2024-07-05	38.53	41.96	-9.86	1657	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2024-06-28	36.33	42.01	-15.92	7015	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-06-14	38.67	42.14	-9.20	6299	Rotation Down	-62	62
2024-06-07	35.00	42.11	-18.62	2669	Rotation Down	-51	68
2024-05-31	38.00	42.24	-11.89	20671	Rotation Down	-38	56
2024-05-24	36.87	42.30	-18.49	7182	Rotation Down	-37	55
2024-05-17	39.33	42.52	-15.01	3407	Deceleration	-27	42
2024-05-10	40.00	42.60	-14.72	2458	Deceleration	-25	31
2024-05-03	40.33	42.67	-14.99	1946	Deceleration	7	13
2024-04-26	41.33	42.73	-12.72	4826	Deceleration	18	10
2024-04-19	43.33	42.70	-10.84	3539	Upward Expansion	36	23
2024-04-05	51.33	42.68	3.46	9849	Upward Expansion	74	52
2024-03-29	46.47	42.48	-5.60	355	Upward Expansion	56	51
2024-03-22	45.33	42.44	-10.29	1159	Upward Expansion	57	64
2024-03-15	46.67	42.48	-7.39	3504	Upward Expansion	56	67
2024-03-08	48.60	42.35	-2.95	3619	Balance	63	65
2024-03-01	50.00	42.29	-1.24	11023	Balance	38	44
2024-02-23	46.00	42.22	-9.58	7713	Balance	-0	2
2024-02-16	40.00	42.35	-20.85	1877	Balance	-39	23
2024-02-09	40.13	42.62	-19.46	5090	Balance	-38	20
2024-02-02	40.67	42.90	-16.86	6152	Balance	-35	18
2024-01-26	40.13	43.19	-20.05	324	Balance	-36	18
2024-01-19	43.33	43.54	-12.87	930	Balance	-8	6
2024-01-12	41.47	43.72	-17.98	1983	Balance	-11	13
2024-01-05	40.67	43.89	-20.06	2963	Balance	-14	22
2023-12-29	43.33	44.09	-13.85	431	Downward Expansion	-7	21
2023-12-22	46.67	44.34	-5.13	5225	Downward Expansion	1	13
2023-12-15	44.67	44.45	-8.59	2330	Downward Expansion	-22	18
2023-12-08	38.67	—	—	2342	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-01	37.07	—	—	1699	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-24	40.00	—	—	2851	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-17	40.00	—	—	669	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	38.00	—	—	1177	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	38.67	—	—	1217	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	39.93	—	—	4735	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	43.33	—	—	308	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-13	42.00	—	—	22	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-06	42.00	—	—	46	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-09-29	42.00	—	—	671	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-09-22	40.67	—	—	2331	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendBelow-11.9%

Trend directionFalling-11.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-40.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-0.4%

Price momentumNegative-15.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.53×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-72 / ±100

-16.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

74 /100

+34.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

9538 Directional State ↗ 9538 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance9

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration38

Rotation Down70

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 144 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-09-25	Extended	-26.2%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-20	New	-5.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	-5.6%
Rotation Up	2025-12-12	2025-12-19	New	+0.0%
Balance	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	+2.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-11-21	Developing	+13.6%
Balance	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	-4.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	+3.0%
Deceleration	2025-09-05	2025-09-05	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-08-29	Established	-6.6%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-12.7%
Balance	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-02-28	Developing	-7.4%
Deceleration	2024-12-27	2025-01-17	New	+3.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing60

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution11

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TASI.SR

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.55
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -15.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.2%
Technology regime cohort: 100th percentile4 in cohort

Test 9538 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.53×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 9538 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity SAR 21.51falling

Slow Activity SAR 23.10falling

Trend Reference SAR 24.00-11.9% close margin

Current Fair Value SAR 35.51-40.4% close margin

Structural low SAR 20.84shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +45.1%

From structural high -39.6%

From structural low +1.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TASI.SR	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	-1.0%-21.4% to +16.8%	+42.1%	+52.6%	-1.6%	+78.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-1.7%-19.7% to +7.3%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-3.6%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-8.8%-18.7% to +20.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-5.9%	+75.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-9.9%-17.5% to -2.2%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-8.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

9538 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map