Weekly structural research · EBS · Consumer Cyclical

UHRN Stage Analysis

The Swatch Group AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CHF 35.60Tenure NewBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -33−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 50/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 58/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +4.8%CHF 33.98 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	35.60	37.44	-3.07	454753	Rotation Down	-33	50
2026-09-25	35.70	37.34	-4.67	262011	Rotation Down	-35	53
2026-09-18	34.35	37.40	-7.16	352389	Rotation Down	-48	57
2026-09-11	35.25	37.52	-4.64	131862	Deceleration	-34	40
2026-09-04	36.35	37.61	-5.82	186384	Deceleration	-25	22
2026-08-28	36.75	37.66	-4.70	39231	Deceleration	-23	22
2026-08-21	37.15	37.63	-3.92	51017	Deceleration	-16	31
2026-08-14	38.80	37.48	0.97	36780	Deceleration	-16	29
2026-08-07	37.35	37.32	-3.55	31394	Deceleration	-15	27
2026-07-31	36.10	37.24	-5.35	69925	Deceleration	-3	17
2026-07-24	34.20	37.16	-10.18	45702	Deceleration	1	12
2026-07-17	40.95	37.15	7.21	19923	Deceleration	46	28
2026-07-10	40.50	36.90	7.24	30111	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-07-03	39.10	36.62	2.56	43066	Upward Expansion	46	34
2026-06-26	40.20	36.43	7.72	19754	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-06-19	41.95	36.17	16.19	162741	Upward Expansion	69	70
2026-06-12	41.35	35.88	15.80	37690	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-06-05	40.25	35.65	16.08	40638	Upward Expansion	62	69
2026-05-29	42.60	35.40	22.16	222855	Upward Expansion	79	79
2026-05-22	39.45	35.08	14.21	295368	Upward Expansion	64	65
2026-05-15	39.55	34.92	17.55	351498	Upward Expansion	67	63
2026-05-08	40.71	34.75	22.74	430444	Balance	77	68
2026-05-01	35.38	34.42	7.14	143721	Balance	39	31
2026-04-24	35.77	34.26	8.45	149811	Balance	38	30
2026-04-17	37.48	34.05	11.84	240815	Balance	49	30
2026-04-10	36.60	33.80	11.74	174486	Balance	30	13
2026-04-03	34.54	33.57	7.48	143769	Upward Expansion	-13	20
2026-03-27	33.52	33.40	8.15	202986	Upward Expansion	-5	23
2026-03-20	32.96	33.24	8.76	525398	Upward Expansion	10	21
2026-03-13	32.66	33.10	3.73	234350	Upward Expansion	16	13
2026-03-06	32.56	32.93	1.50	296066	Upward Expansion	38	33
2026-02-27	37.51	32.79	9.31	331213	Upward Expansion	65	80
2026-02-20	38.15	32.51	12.60	333899	Upward Expansion	75	85
2026-02-13	37.92	32.30	14.26	391516	Upward Expansion	79	78
2026-02-06	37.69	31.97	15.24	527123	Upward Expansion	80	59
2026-01-30	35.87	31.64	12.00	307284	Upward Expansion	72	45
2026-01-23	32.88	31.32	3.16	202343	Upward Expansion	53	35
2026-01-16	33.84	31.11	4.05	256881	Upward Expansion	57	47
2026-01-09	35.09	30.85	7.85	220662	Upward Expansion	71	50
2026-01-02	33.68	30.59	4.85	42506	Upward Expansion	56	35
2025-12-26	33.68	30.38	5.08	66810	Deceleration	48	32
2025-12-19	33.42	30.18	4.80	443187	Deceleration	44	27
2025-12-12	32.35	29.98	3.61	295205	Deceleration	40	27
2025-12-05	33.19	29.84	5.81	234020	Deceleration	45	37
2025-11-28	32.39	29.62	4.08	181488	Upward Expansion	56	43
2025-11-21	33.23	29.44	8.49	344824	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-11-14	34.62	29.24	13.08	339665	Upward Expansion	74	77
2025-11-07	32.60	28.94	9.44	213123	Upward Expansion	65	82
2025-10-31	33.27	28.71	12.32	202088	Upward Expansion	67	85
2025-10-24	34.54	28.45	13.45	291233	Upward Expansion	87	89
2025-10-17	34.42	28.29	12.31	625482	Upward Expansion	88	78
2025-10-10	30.84	28.16	2.05	267032	Upward Expansion	66	56
2025-10-03	30.45	28.17	0.25	180647	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-09-26	29.65	28.20	1.92	238964	Upward Expansion	57	50
2025-09-19	29.91	28.29	1.03	234950	Balance	33	40
2025-09-12	29.71	28.37	-0.25	133681	Balance	31	26
2025-09-05	29.32	28.46	-2.96	159171	Balance	16	11
2025-08-29	28.85	28.52	-3.23	332057	Balance	10	7
2025-08-22	28.75	28.61	-4.41	207023	Balance	-7	7
2025-08-15	27.62	28.68	-7.03	143162	Rotation Up	-8	21
2025-08-08	28.24	28.76	-3.65	285931	Rotation Up	16	28
2025-08-01	29.10	28.78	-0.80	223805	Rotation Up	16	30
2025-07-25	31.84	28.78	7.16	439082	Rotation Up	38	35
2025-07-18	28.09	28.72	-5.70	656526	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2025-07-11	27.74	28.78	-6.79	316858	Downward Expansion	-54	40
2025-07-04	26.37	28.87	-12.03	347685	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-06-27	26.49	29.00	-12.20	476054	Downward Expansion	-56	36
2025-06-20	26.13	29.11	-13.03	374162	Downward Expansion	-61	35
2025-06-13	27.07	29.23	-12.45	306680	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2025-06-06	27.56	29.38	-12.88	375415	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-05-30	27.74	29.47	-11.75	324245	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-05-23	27.42	29.66	-13.00	276464	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-05-16	28.14	29.89	-12.15	327116	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2025-05-09	26.49	30.03	-16.10	324604	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2025-05-02	27.10	30.30	-15.89	255039	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2025-04-25	27.16	30.57	-14.11	394934	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2025-04-18	25.68	30.80	-17.34	338714	Downward Expansion	-74	81
2025-04-11	25.72	30.89	-14.65	995864	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2025-04-04	25.30	31.01	-19.48	934619	Balance	-79	63
2025-03-28	29.80	31.18	-14.62	303203	Balance	-41	24
2025-03-21	30.42	31.31	-14.94	472453	Balance	-11	7
2025-03-14	31.13	31.43	-12.35	434356	Balance	13	14
2025-03-07	31.50	31.53	-12.84	350221	Rotation Up	18	29
2025-02-28	32.40	31.60	-10.33	411479	Rotation Up	23	34
2025-02-21	32.36	31.62	-10.56	295875	Balance	23	26
2025-02-14	32.17	31.64	-10.79	544370	Balance	1	15
2025-02-07	31.13	31.67	-12.53	674020	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2025-01-31	31.65	31.82	-11.60	809698	Downward Expansion	-26	14
2025-01-24	30.79	31.95	-12.18	370290	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2025-01-17	29.99	32.08	-12.74	592568	Downward Expansion	-55	42
2025-01-10	29.04	32.26	-14.55	475712	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-01-03	28.99	32.45	-13.97	190221	Downward Expansion	-65	45
2024-12-27	30.18	32.65	-10.74	133658	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2024-12-20	29.75	32.83	-11.02	633464	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-12-13	30.51	33.01	-11.72	433803	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2024-12-06	30.23	33.23	-13.78	630331	Downward Expansion	-57	59
2024-11-29	29.66	33.42	-15.87	6520698	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2024-11-22	29.85	33.62	-15.64	712470	Balance	-64	50
2024-11-15	31.46	33.81	-11.09	787797	Balance	-50	29
2024-11-08	30.37	33.91	-16.01	641284	Balance	-58	28
2024-11-01	33.49	34.10	-9.36	414216	Balance	-10	12
2024-10-25	34.35	34.23	-9.35	439231	Downward Expansion	-13	21
2024-10-18	32.22	34.33	-16.50	904204	Downward Expansion	-27	27
2024-10-11	34.49	34.46	-9.98	477055	Downward Expansion	-18	16
2024-10-04	35.44	34.54	-6.73	838186	Downward Expansion	-24	22
2024-09-27	34.02	34.60	-12.61	1210367	Downward Expansion	-56	66
2024-09-20	28.43	34.72	-25.58	851154	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2024-09-13	29.18	35.02	-24.91	615945	Downward Expansion	-84	78
2024-09-06	30.51	35.32	-21.31	482898	Downward Expansion	-78	47
2024-08-30	33.54	35.53	-17.85	347703	Downward Expansion	-53	29
2024-08-23	34.11	35.59	-16.46	524549	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2024-08-16	34.16	35.65	-15.82	550917	Downward Expansion	-56	50
2024-08-09	33.45	35.75	-15.90	372005	Downward Expansion	-59	65
2024-08-02	33.16	35.89	-17.28	466940	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-07-26	32.88	36.06	-21.07	730663	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2024-07-19	33.07	36.31	-20.85	1789617	Downward Expansion	-71	40
2024-07-12	35.72	36.53	-16.53	401158	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-07-05	35.39	36.72	-15.56	426133	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2024-06-28	34.77	36.88	-17.52	622032	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-06-21	35.48	37.08	-16.47	510669	Downward Expansion	-52	37
2024-06-14	34.68	37.26	-19.02	445710	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-06-07	35.06	37.47	-20.02	456466	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2024-05-31	35.63	37.63	-17.53	788923	Downward Expansion	-49	25
2024-05-24	34.96	37.84	-19.06	501537	Downward Expansion	-59	31
2024-05-17	37.05	38.00	-15.54	651998	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2024-05-10	36.15	38.07	-16.10	383004	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2024-05-03	35.55	38.17	-14.51	289138	Downward Expansion	-56	56
2024-04-26	35.46	38.33	-15.74	371717	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2024-04-19	34.68	38.52	-17.79	639080	Downward Expansion	-66	39
2024-04-12	35.87	38.77	-16.14	402435	Downward Expansion	-60	34
2024-04-05	37.43	39.01	-13.88	331546	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2024-03-29	37.48	39.21	-15.97	305411	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2024-03-22	35.87	39.42	-19.62	548175	Downward Expansion	-63	37
2024-03-15	37.16	39.65	-17.58	401373	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-03-08	37.02	39.86	-18.27	329313	Downward Expansion	-41	23
2024-03-01	37.66	40.12	-16.52	438522	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-02-23	37.34	40.42	-17.94	321683	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-02-16	38.44	40.77	-14.74	504714	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2024-02-09	36.79	41.06	-17.36	521138	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2024-02-02	35.23	41.47	-22.41	543068	Downward Expansion	-80	85
2024-01-26	35.83	41.83	-22.72	855619	Downward Expansion	-81	82
2024-01-19	37.11	42.14	-18.85	244713	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-01-12	37.71	42.38	-18.52	275082	Downward Expansion	-75	67
2024-01-05	38.35	42.64	-17.22	221566	Downward Expansion	-70	43
2023-12-29	40.36	42.88	-12.81	64922	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2023-12-22	39.81	43.08	-14.27	258481	Downward Expansion	-57	33
2023-12-15	41.23	43.33	-11.67	380026	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2023-12-08	40.27	43.58	-12.87	271023	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2023-12-01	40.64	43.89	-10.69	702404	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2023-11-24	40.91	44.17	-10.01	157286	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2023-11-17	41.00	44.49	-8.55	237865	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2023-11-10	40.00	44.78	-9.22	232045	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2023-11-03	41.74	45.07	-5.51	170606	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2023-10-27	39.81	45.30	-7.55	187664	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2023-10-20	39.08	45.70	-9.31	197044	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2023-10-13	39.22	46.06	-13.58	239038	Downward Expansion	-83	87

Price vs TrendBelow-4.9%

Trend directionRising+0.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+4.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-8.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.6%

Price momentumPositive+3.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.36×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-33 / ±100

-7.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

50 /100

+28.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

UHRN Directional State ↗ UHRN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration45

Rotation Down60

Downward Expansion58

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 52%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+3.6%
Deceleration	2026-07-17	2026-09-11	Developing	-13.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-07-10	Developing	+2.4%
Balance	2026-04-10	2026-05-08	Developing	+11.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-04-03	Established	+2.6%
Deceleration	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	+1.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-28	Developing	+9.2%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-09-19	Developing	+4.0%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-15	New	-13.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-07-18	Established	+9.2%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-04-04	New	-18.7%
Rotation Up	2025-02-28	2025-03-07	New	-2.8%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-02-21	New	+0.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-02-07	Developing	+5.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing35

Stage 3 · Distribution69

Stage 4 · Declining65

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 76/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.07
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +3.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.2%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 100th percentile3 in cohort

Test UHRN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.59×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.36×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore UHRN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 35.38falling

Slow Activity CHF 37.55falling

Trend Reference CHF 37.44-4.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 33.98+4.8% close margin

Structural low CHF 33.55shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +41.0%

From structural high -18.2%

From structural low +19.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	-2.0%-3.3% to +2.6%	+40.0%	+60.0%	+4.1%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-4.7%-13.9% to +12.7%	+33.3%	+66.7%	+0.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-11.7%-15.6% to +10.8%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-2.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-15.5%-23.1% to -7.9%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-14.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

UHRN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map