Weekly structural research · JKT · Basic Materials

INKP Stage Analysis

PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close IDR 8,225.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^JKSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 10−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 49/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +3.5%IDR 7,950.48 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	8,225.00	8,520.69	11.60	19629100	Rotation Up	10	19
2026-09-18	8,625.00	8,633.19	14.14	25235200	Rotation Up	28	54
2026-09-11	8,850.00	8,672.36	16.15	25348100	Rotation Up	34	67
2026-09-04	8,800.00	8,705.69	14.52	27238600	Rotation Up	34	63
2026-08-28	8,850.00	8,707.36	17.89	15157700	Rotation Up	19	47
2026-08-21	8,750.00	8,715.69	17.17	3903700	Downward Expansion	16	35
2026-08-14	8,500.00	8,776.53	16.72	2491000	Downward Expansion	-8	24
2026-08-07	8,325.00	8,826.53	14.80	2500200	Downward Expansion	-28	28
2026-07-31	8,400.00	8,871.53	19.54	5261800	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2026-07-24	7,675.00	8,884.03	10.63	3926300	Downward Expansion	-48	42
2026-07-17	7,625.00	8,896.53	11.10	3942600	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-07-10	7,325.00	8,910.69	12.13	1647500	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2026-07-03	7,075.00	8,939.86	9.99	2504000	Downward Expansion	-68	77
2026-06-26	7,098.12	8,988.19	10.79	3049400	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2026-06-19	7,394.91	9,044.09	10.90	43097800	Downward Expansion	-66	83
2026-06-12	7,617.50	9,050.93	18.23	5343300	Rotation Down	-67	82
2026-06-05	6,628.21	9,049.51	11.27	5154500	Rotation Down	-61	78
2026-05-29	7,592.77	9,078.57	16.99	40296100	Balance	-49	62
2026-05-22	8,013.21	9,073.81	23.56	69546900	Balance	-29	36
2026-05-15	8,903.57	9,056.70	26.88	28146600	Balance	5	9
2026-05-08	9,051.96	9,001.58	25.57	48173800	Balance	11	6
2026-05-01	9,645.54	8,961.52	35.21	22873500	Upward Expansion	45	22
2026-04-24	9,775.00	8,890.00	35.24	19148400	Upward Expansion	45	22
2026-04-17	9,925.00	8,813.33	29.69	23486700	Upward Expansion	48	24
2026-04-10	9,725.00	8,725.83	31.47	14509800	Upward Expansion	34	17
2026-04-03	9,625.00	8,660.83	39.50	22238800	Upward Expansion	33	16
2026-03-27	9,875.00	8,603.33	43.45	17457500	Upward Expansion	37	19
2026-03-20	9,500.00	8,529.17	39.56	13921800	Upward Expansion	39	23
2026-03-13	9,025.00	8,470.83	33.64	51293700	Upward Expansion	51	31
2026-03-06	9,200.00	8,435.83	29.38	80597400	Upward Expansion	55	39
2026-02-27	11,600.00	8,395.83	51.72	194098900	Upward Expansion	81	52
2026-02-20	9,800.00	8,252.50	28.92	47486000	Upward Expansion	59	35
2026-02-13	9,850.00	8,129.17	31.29	33937700	Upward Expansion	65	44
2026-02-06	8,850.00	7,992.50	22.88	63499500	Upward Expansion	60	47
2026-01-30	9,100.00	7,890.83	20.82	108231100	Upward Expansion	64	74
2026-01-23	10,575.00	7,766.67	31.10	45857100	Upward Expansion	86	92
2026-01-16	10,000.00	7,605.00	22.99	46647900	Upward Expansion	83	82
2026-01-09	9,675.00	7,463.34	21.38	70895000	Upward Expansion	83	66
2026-01-02	8,775.00	7,348.21	12.84	24277500	Upward Expansion	70	43
2025-12-26	8,050.00	7,268.04	6.18	10321200	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-12-19	8,050.00	7,212.04	5.31	30134400	Upward Expansion	60	64
2025-12-12	8,200.00	7,147.77	6.57	80431300	Upward Expansion	60	66
2025-12-05	8,525.00	7,071.89	11.12	33478800	Upward Expansion	72	71
2025-11-28	8,775.00	6,978.57	15.99	70123100	Deceleration	78	59
2025-11-21	7,600.00	6,863.70	1.70	22602900	Deceleration	39	23
2025-11-14	7,575.00	6,784.69	1.73	32841500	Deceleration	39	23
2025-11-07	7,500.00	6,691.15	0.24	19192000	Deceleration	35	19
2025-10-31	7,450.00	6,606.39	2.13	24015800	Deceleration	37	23
2025-10-24	7,500.00	6,520.64	1.21	30659400	Deceleration	38	24
2025-10-17	7,250.00	6,429.27	1.92	36485200	Deceleration	39	26
2025-10-10	7,850.00	6,346.89	5.36	45608100	Deceleration	50	33
2025-10-03	7,500.00	6,263.68	1.92	38442900	Deceleration	43	32
2025-09-26	7,475.00	6,169.00	1.44	36144100	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-09-19	7,300.00	6,128.03	-0.61	30081400	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-09-12	7,775.00	6,084.64	8.15	23507500	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-09-05	7,900.00	6,025.40	9.58	29114000	Upward Expansion	69	76
2025-08-29	7,650.00	5,985.14	6.51	40653700	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-22	7,750.00	5,953.21	7.15	41328900	Upward Expansion	70	89
2025-08-15	7,975.00	5,911.33	9.42	74765800	Upward Expansion	84	93
2025-08-08	8,000.00	5,857.00	14.90	88976200	Rotation Up	88	88
2025-08-01	7,300.00	5,811.75	4.66	106356400	Rotation Up	53	58
2025-07-25	6,100.00	5,791.49	-12.84	49177700	Balance	14	11
2025-07-18	5,750.00	5,806.27	-15.85	19310700	Balance	-3	14
2025-07-11	5,800.00	5,850.89	-12.57	21075100	Balance	-11	18
2025-07-04	5,375.00	5,893.02	-17.48	25024800	Balance	-38	25
2025-06-27	5,725.00	5,953.44	-13.34	20645200	Rotation Up	6	13
2025-06-20	5,750.21	5,997.24	-13.82	58147800	Rotation Up	22	42
2025-06-13	6,221.14	6,040.20	-10.91	37720300	Rotation Up	26	55
2025-06-06	6,369.85	6,074.08	-8.93	35996200	Rotation Up	32	49
2025-05-30	6,369.85	6,113.73	-10.41	21259200	Downward Expansion	13	29
2025-05-23	6,122.00	6,166.61	-15.06	40501500	Downward Expansion	3	19
2025-05-16	5,923.71	6,234.36	-17.31	28941800	Downward Expansion	-20	22
2025-05-09	5,725.43	6,314.50	-17.65	49683800	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2025-05-02	5,328.86	6,415.29	-23.81	23619400	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-04-25	5,229.72	6,519.39	-24.37	27005200	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-04-18	4,768.71	6,616.88	-29.20	22303000	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2025-04-11	4,957.08	6,734.69	-25.10	63058700	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2025-03-28	4,877.77	6,838.79	-29.75	48668200	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2025-03-21	4,758.80	6,943.88	-29.34	43061500	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2025-03-14	4,778.63	7,071.94	-32.32	47885200	Downward Expansion	-84	83
2025-03-07	5,353.65	7,188.59	-26.05	132770300	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2025-02-28	4,659.66	7,272.04	-32.37	208599100	Downward Expansion	-93	89
2025-02-21	6,245.92	7,389.36	-16.91	16146600	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2025-02-14	5,998.07	7,448.02	-18.45	23514500	Downward Expansion	-80	66
2025-02-07	5,998.07	7,528.98	-19.96	14749600	Downward Expansion	-86	67
2025-01-31	6,692.06	7,608.29	-15.62	3966100	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2025-01-24	6,692.06	7,677.69	-16.51	16387600	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-01-17	6,493.78	7,748.74	-19.07	20162200	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2025-01-10	6,345.06	7,821.47	-20.46	21211600	Downward Expansion	-83	88
2025-01-03	6,642.49	7,895.05	-17.93	9169800	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2024-12-27	6,692.06	7,979.25	-16.10	4734400	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2024-12-20	6,543.35	8,055.23	-17.60	18784400	Downward Expansion	-85	69
2024-12-13	7,088.63	8,153.41	-15.12	19210300	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2024-12-06	7,063.84	8,239.17	-16.30	24147600	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2024-11-29	7,187.77	8,316.72	-11.95	17077600	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2024-11-22	7,039.06	8,383.57	-15.00	12081900	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2024-11-15	7,039.06	8,443.87	-14.91	15191200	Downward Expansion	-85	88
2024-11-08	7,237.34	8,526.35	-14.37	31913900	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2024-11-01	7,559.55	8,599.76	-13.50	26648500	Balance	-74	64
2024-10-25	7,956.12	8,662.43	-11.86	22976300	Balance	-60	28
2024-10-18	8,154.40	8,704.49	-11.07	29499700	Balance	-29	16
2024-10-11	8,327.90	8,713.65	-6.97	34911800	Balance	-21	14
2024-10-04	8,749.25	8,709.63	-2.53	55315500	Downward Expansion	-18	14
2024-09-27	8,451.82	8,712.92	-8.90	24270800	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2024-09-20	8,154.40	8,691.63	-13.34	20610400	Downward Expansion	-46	31
2024-09-13	8,303.11	8,681.89	-13.15	36438400	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2024-09-06	8,080.04	8,666.37	-14.87	19284300	Downward Expansion	-58	33
2024-08-30	8,030.47	8,664.04	-15.16	35067400	Rotation Down	-64	38
2024-08-23	8,600.54	8,655.97	-8.02	26743600	Rotation Down	-29	26
2024-08-16	8,278.33	8,632.18	-10.42	19177700	Rotation Down	-35	54
2024-08-09	7,856.97	8,622.42	-13.30	30142300	Rotation Down	-46	62
2024-08-02	8,179.18	8,635.74	-10.72	25918300	Rotation Down	-28	52
2024-07-26	8,005.69	8,636.68	-12.57	26941600	Rotation Down	-36	50
2024-07-19	8,427.04	8,644.22	-8.32	18863100	Balance	-22	33
2024-07-12	8,377.47	8,625.39	-9.45	29759500	Balance	-23	25
2024-07-05	8,774.03	8,613.97	-4.42	18255600	Balance	8	16
2024-06-28	8,823.61	8,600.01	-1.37	18157600	Balance	11	16
2024-06-21	8,675.59	8,583.57	-0.40	12806000	Upward Expansion	18	18
2024-06-14	8,552.35	8,573.71	0.44	22932300	Upward Expansion	22	15
2024-06-07	9,168.52	8,567.14	5.42	22174400	Upward Expansion	43	28
2024-05-31	8,971.35	8,540.03	2.55	33445700	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-05-24	9,488.92	8,569.61	5.03	8103400	Upward Expansion	60	42
2024-05-17	9,661.45	8,590.97	5.97	21155600	Upward Expansion	67	41
2024-05-10	9,390.34	8,614.79	6.75	9790400	Rotation Up	62	40
2024-05-03	9,193.17	8,641.90	4.32	20702000	Rotation Up	31	32
2024-04-26	8,848.11	8,700.23	2.11	38980300	Rotation Up	35	50
2024-04-19	9,513.57	8,783.21	9.31	38589100	Rotation Up	45	70
2024-04-05	9,439.63	8,813.61	5.93	37743100	Rotation Up	39	63
2024-03-29	9,439.63	8,809.50	6.32	36084800	Rotation Up	42	57
2024-03-22	9,217.81	8,796.36	3.31	49403500	Downward Expansion	20	32
2024-03-15	8,429.12	8,794.71	-4.96	21919100	Downward Expansion	-14	18
2024-03-08	8,207.30	8,821.82	-7.93	39175700	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2024-03-01	8,848.11	8,867.01	0.27	49364700	Downward Expansion	-20	16
2024-02-23	7,812.96	8,876.87	-11.14	22858500	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2024-02-16	7,862.25	8,908.09	-11.18	16709700	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-02-09	7,837.60	8,941.77	-10.31	11175400	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-02-02	8,010.13	8,974.63	-8.58	31682400	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2024-01-26	7,788.31	8,998.46	-10.02	26983900	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-01-19	7,886.90	9,018.17	-10.19	23741900	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2024-01-12	7,985.48	9,027.21	-9.48	26384800	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2024-01-05	8,256.60	9,022.28	-8.04	15084500	Rotation Down	-57	52
2023-12-29	8,207.30	8,990.24	-7.82	11428400	Rotation Down	-32	43
2023-12-22	8,231.95	8,943.41	-7.26	30602500	Rotation Down	-34	44
2023-12-15	7,862.25	8,908.09	-11.11	32915700	Rotation Down	-43	54
2023-12-08	8,034.78	8,881.80	-9.20	31334100	Rotation Down	-32	52
2023-12-01	8,355.18	8,850.58	-4.59	51217600	Rotation Down	-25	52
2023-11-24	8,330.54	8,803.79	-4.49	23080900	Deceleration	-28	41
2023-11-17	8,379.83	8,779.85	-3.68	36243500	Deceleration	-28	37
2023-11-10	8,355.18	8,745.28	-1.84	27075500	Deceleration	-10	24
2023-11-03	8,355.18	8,710.73	-1.79	79479200	Deceleration	7	15
2023-10-27	9,858.62	8,669.64	16.04	54765900	Upward Expansion	42	30
2023-10-20	10,129.73	8,585.79	17.96	29734000	Upward Expansion	59	48
2023-10-13	10,376.20	8,488.00	19.89	46299100	Upward Expansion	64	63
2023-10-06	10,203.67	8,366.50	18.97	54879000	Upward Expansion	65	79
2023-09-29	10,943.07	8,267.88	27.02	35220400	Upward Expansion	77	88
2023-09-22	11,337.42	8,159.30	30.80	48254500	Upward Expansion	91	85

Price vs TrendBelow-3.5%

Trend directionFalling-4.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+3.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+14.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+11.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.8%

Price momentumNegative-16.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

10 / ±100

-9.1 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

19 /100

-27.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

INKP Directional State ↗ INKP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up48

Upward Expansion29

Deceleration34

Rotation Down24

Downward Expansion34

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-7.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-21	Developing	+18.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-06-12	New	+14.9%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	-16.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-05-01	Established	+13.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-28	Developing	+17.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-26	Developing	-6.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	+9.6%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	+13.5%
Rotation Up	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	-10.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-05-30	Extended	-12.0%
Balance	2024-10-11	2024-11-01	New	-9.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-10-04	Developing	+8.3%
Rotation Down	2024-07-26	2024-08-30	Developing	+0.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing59

Stage 2 · Advancing27

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^JKSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: 11.60
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -16.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -4.7%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 18th percentile28 in cohort

Test INKP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.18×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore INKP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity IDR 8,575.00falling

Slow Activity IDR 8,295.01falling

Trend Reference IDR 8,520.69-3.5% close margin

Current Fair Value IDR 7,950.48+3.5% close margin

Structural low IDR 6,578.75shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +38.6%

From structural high -35.5%

From structural low +25.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^JKSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	8	-2.5%-15.6% to +4.8%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-0.3%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+4.9%-7.9% to +24.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-6.3%-12.0% to +33.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-12.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+4.1%-4.0% to +9.2%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+2.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

INKP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

RMI Reversal Map