Weekly structural research · NYSE · Basic Materials

OLN Stage Analysis

Olin Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 14.89Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -81−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 84/100directional strength

Maturity 45/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -53.0%USD 31.70 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	14.89	22.14	-39.01	40202159	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2026-10-02	15.90	22.46	-34.69	18549896	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2026-09-25	16.40	22.71	-33.48	10407580	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2026-09-18	16.84	22.99	-31.42	14581109	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-09-11	17.20	23.23	-30.59	9997861	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2026-09-04	17.37	23.51	-31.13	13647976	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2026-08-28	17.15	23.74	-32.56	15560745	Downward Expansion	-74	81
2026-08-21	18.19	23.86	-28.71	11733105	Downward Expansion	-70	79
2026-08-14	18.88	24.04	-27.48	11455018	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2026-08-07	18.38	24.18	-29.63	19501638	Downward Expansion	-75	58
2026-07-31	18.30	24.35	-27.69	22022204	Downward Expansion	-80	57
2026-07-24	22.93	24.44	-8.59	13370344	Rotation Down	-60	54
2026-07-17	21.99	24.37	-12.95	13310897	Rotation Down	-38	65
2026-07-10	20.68	24.30	-19.50	17808681	Rotation Down	-45	69
2026-07-03	20.04	24.34	-21.23	15026176	Rotation Down	-43	64
2026-06-26	21.73	24.34	-13.10	20544941	Deceleration	-35	51
2026-06-19	22.01	24.31	-14.20	21043627	Deceleration	-32	28
2026-06-12	25.13	24.22	-1.26	9053840	Deceleration	9	13
2026-06-05	24.54	24.04	-3.00	9745731	Deceleration	19	14
2026-05-29	25.87	23.85	-0.26	8694683	Deceleration	33	16
2026-05-22	26.03	23.66	1.93	8584717	Deceleration	37	23
2026-05-15	26.78	23.58	5.92	11154892	Upward Expansion	41	27
2026-05-08	26.65	23.45	5.70	12860899	Upward Expansion	51	30
2026-05-01	28.41	23.28	15.29	7902087	Upward Expansion	63	40
2026-04-24	26.58	23.17	8.98	10833772	Upward Expansion	55	43
2026-04-17	25.90	23.07	6.69	11293297	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-04-10	28.74	22.99	23.60	14960903	Upward Expansion	68	68
2026-04-03	28.37	22.89	26.74	12077525	Upward Expansion	70	61
2026-03-27	28.80	22.76	33.46	15097265	Upward Expansion	74	43
2026-03-20	23.60	22.57	7.07	14064161	Upward Expansion	49	26
2026-03-13	24.55	22.53	8.98	17525186	Upward Expansion	55	32
2026-03-06	23.20	22.40	1.14	18083591	Upward Expansion	52	40
2026-02-27	24.98	22.24	6.34	12744864	Upward Expansion	62	58
2026-02-20	23.97	21.99	1.25	12029015	Upward Expansion	53	38
2026-02-13	25.49	21.88	8.37	15812650	Balance	61	50
2026-02-06	24.45	21.69	2.28	21373904	Balance	56	43
2026-01-30	20.49	21.58	-14.91	24194204	Balance	11	20
2026-01-23	23.63	21.60	-2.40	13720554	Balance	32	39
2026-01-16	23.05	21.47	-6.03	11025940	Balance	28	24
2026-01-09	23.50	21.33	-5.63	18542884	Balance	21	15
2026-01-02	21.22	21.20	-14.21	6152279	Balance	-4	6
2025-12-26	20.57	21.14	-18.63	5629307	Balance	-7	6
2025-12-19	20.08	21.08	-20.48	15160249	Balance	-3	5
2025-12-12	21.84	21.03	-14.50	12388546	Rotation Down	2	8
2025-12-05	20.15	20.98	-22.66	12775472	Rotation Down	-19	29
2025-11-28	20.78	20.99	-21.41	7729799	Rotation Down	-21	40
2025-11-21	19.30	21.01	-25.70	14943107	Deceleration	-27	42
2025-11-14	19.63	21.07	-27.30	11858292	Deceleration	-24	29
2025-11-07	18.92	21.08	-31.08	14458233	Deceleration	-26	25
2025-10-31	20.19	21.10	-29.08	21724229	Deceleration	12	16
2025-10-24	23.47	21.07	-18.44	9745590	Deceleration	37	22
2025-10-17	22.84	21.07	-20.33	9441540	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-10-10	21.73	21.11	-24.29	12328648	Upward Expansion	44	29
2025-10-03	25.13	21.17	-16.23	12729156	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-09-26	23.37	21.11	-22.63	13552573	Rotation Up	62	69
2025-09-19	23.56	21.14	-23.74	14204157	Rotation Up	37	65
2025-09-12	25.73	21.20	-17.00	15043574	Rotation Up	52	72
2025-09-05	24.69	21.22	-20.22	9683851	Balance	48	54
2025-08-29	23.08	21.29	-26.22	11004762	Balance	29	25
2025-08-22	22.41	21.45	-29.48	8560544	Balance	-1	5
2025-08-15	20.60	21.74	-36.01	13417068	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2025-08-08	18.30	22.13	-43.50	15140810	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2025-08-01	17.63	22.50	-45.13	20903314	Downward Expansion	-66	34
2025-07-25	20.56	22.94	-38.66	13216291	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2025-07-18	19.71	23.32	-41.29	10739906	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-07-11	21.16	23.72	-37.73	14593962	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-07-04	21.20	24.20	-38.83	7550268	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2025-06-27	19.76	24.80	-42.90	8164597	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-06-20	18.68	25.49	-45.08	8273212	Downward Expansion	-64	50
2025-06-13	19.71	26.23	-43.20	10367053	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-06-06	19.30	26.88	-45.55	10019915	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-05-30	18.77	27.63	-47.16	7807496	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2025-05-23	18.71	28.30	-47.48	6894756	Downward Expansion	-74	58
2025-05-16	20.43	28.98	-45.23	8390387	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2025-05-09	20.43	29.78	-43.49	8488960	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-05-02	21.27	30.59	-42.55	11578216	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-04-25	21.08	31.40	-42.46	7691839	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-04-18	20.01	32.24	-43.85	5074244	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2025-04-11	19.57	32.96	-46.83	15729864	Downward Expansion	-80	71
2025-04-04	19.26	33.66	-45.70	9707501	Downward Expansion	-89	74
2025-03-28	23.54	34.33	-40.77	7221621	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2025-03-21	23.94	34.92	-41.66	11862095	Downward Expansion	-68	81
2025-03-14	23.60	35.53	-43.09	10009769	Downward Expansion	-74	86
2025-03-07	23.37	36.08	-45.87	12182483	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2025-02-28	24.13	36.58	-46.72	8750293	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2025-02-21	25.53	37.13	-45.02	5073180	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2025-02-14	26.30	37.68	-45.00	9569334	Downward Expansion	-78	84
2025-02-07	26.82	38.31	-43.87	14973460	Downward Expansion	-80	69
2025-01-31	27.83	38.93	-42.57	10990003	Downward Expansion	-81	69
2025-01-24	31.10	39.43	-37.26	4548096	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2025-01-17	32.09	39.88	-35.00	6269986	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2025-01-10	29.46	40.34	-39.23	6026117	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2025-01-03	30.75	40.93	-38.53	6140826	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2024-12-27	32.09	41.48	-36.96	5196819	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2024-12-20	31.79	42.09	-37.90	16233092	Downward Expansion	-86	80
2024-12-13	35.46	42.74	-32.81	13350077	Downward Expansion	-76	52
2024-12-06	39.22	43.32	-26.87	5105699	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-11-29	40.47	43.75	-24.51	4111571	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2024-11-22	40.74	44.08	-23.65	4658266	Downward Expansion	-54	53
2024-11-15	39.33	44.39	-25.54	6953894	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-11-08	41.89	44.75	-22.87	12972778	Downward Expansion	-40	38
2024-11-01	38.64	45.06	-25.84	7644475	Balance	-56	42
2024-10-25	39.18	45.60	-26.30	9884508	Balance	-37	18
2024-10-18	44.45	46.14	-17.68	5142082	Balance	-2	22
2024-10-11	44.84	46.42	-16.72	4900226	Downward Expansion	-5	20
2024-10-04	45.38	46.75	-15.23	5375833	Downward Expansion	-15	19
2024-09-27	46.32	47.01	-13.68	8323171	Downward Expansion	-20	17
2024-09-20	41.71	47.17	-22.29	10772976	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2024-09-13	40.63	47.42	-23.67	5728753	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2024-09-06	39.34	47.70	-23.66	3484090	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2024-08-30	41.30	47.99	-23.68	4250638	Downward Expansion	-63	57
2024-08-23	42.04	48.21	-22.66	4676789	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2024-08-16	40.26	48.53	-25.62	6022269	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2024-08-09	38.45	48.77	-26.84	6908422	Downward Expansion	-84	85
2024-08-02	40.44	49.11	-23.78	10865370	Downward Expansion	-80	68
2024-07-26	41.97	49.40	-23.28	9425185	Downward Expansion	-78	72
2024-07-19	45.28	49.68	-18.57	4839336	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2024-07-12	45.33	49.85	-20.60	5791474	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-07-05	43.03	49.98	-24.35	5579343	Downward Expansion	-82	86
2024-06-28	44.38	50.10	-21.02	7933475	Rotation Down	-80	82
2024-06-21	46.18	50.13	-18.28	6627943	Rotation Down	-44	62
2024-06-14	47.03	50.07	-16.54	4575915	Balance	-30	45
2024-06-07	47.13	49.96	-15.39	5009599	Balance	-29	21
2024-05-31	50.60	49.75	-8.43	3607293	Balance	24	13
2024-05-24	51.20	49.45	-7.98	3867533	Balance	21	12
2024-05-17	52.85	49.05	-5.31	3318380	Upward Expansion	38	18
2024-05-10	52.06	48.72	-5.56	3976073	Upward Expansion	28	21
2024-05-03	50.29	48.48	-7.39	5894173	Upward Expansion	24	24
2024-04-26	50.15	48.26	-7.55	5204062	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-04-19	50.26	48.13	-5.35	3934015	Upward Expansion	44	29
2024-04-12	51.05	47.90	-7.23	3697223	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-04-05	55.01	47.75	-2.00	4221556	Upward Expansion	70	77
2024-03-29	55.14	47.48	-3.03	4165238	Upward Expansion	75	80
2024-03-22	53.04	47.25	-6.75	6758687	Upward Expansion	66	75
2024-03-15	54.63	47.29	-2.18	5756946	Upward Expansion	80	78
2024-03-08	53.28	47.22	-4.92	4669617	Upward Expansion	74	60
2024-03-01	51.09	47.23	-9.43	4610435	Balance	64	35
2024-02-23	49.14	47.35	-12.63	3438108	Balance	13	11
2024-02-16	49.10	47.50	-11.91	4605114	Balance	15	17
2024-02-09	47.92	47.59	-14.95	4103216	Balance	12	14
2024-02-02	47.98	47.66	-14.33	8097333	Rotation Up	15	17
2024-01-26	51.53	47.70	-7.41	8437660	Rotation Up	45	34
2024-01-19	47.70	47.57	-13.96	3544296	Rotation Up	20	26
2024-01-12	48.37	47.47	-12.22	4205611	Rotation Up	25	53
2024-01-05	49.17	47.47	-9.56	3746512	Rotation Up	26	57
2023-12-29	50.41	47.43	-9.17	3006349	Rotation Up	35	56
2023-12-22	50.37	47.33	-9.28	5185692	Downward Expansion	35	39
2023-12-15	49.25	47.22	-10.84	10372074	Downward Expansion	-1	19
2023-12-08	46.70	47.25	-13.70	9301485	Downward Expansion	-24	24
2023-12-01	45.17	47.31	-16.69	5350905	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2023-11-24	44.33	47.50	-17.98	4051787	Downward Expansion	-47	34
2023-11-17	43.87	47.73	-18.51	5534946	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2023-11-10	40.90	47.98	-22.74	4377579	Downward Expansion	-68	73
2023-11-03	41.54	48.36	-21.05	7138311	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-10-27	39.18	48.72	-21.77	8867786	Downward Expansion	-83	78
2023-10-20	42.95	49.12	-16.82	5312702	Downward Expansion	-69	61

Price vs TrendBelow-32.8%

Trend directionFalling-9.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-53.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-39.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-19.5%

Price momentumNegative-48.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.50×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-81 / ±100

-11.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

84 /100

+14.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

OLN Directional State ↗ OLN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance2

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration39

Rotation Down71

Downward Expansion98

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-09	Developing	-18.6%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-07-24	New	+14.4%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-06-26	Developing	-16.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-05-15	Established	+11.7%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-02-13	Developing	+26.9%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+5.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-21	Developing	-17.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	-9.1%
Rotation Up	2025-09-12	2025-09-26	New	-9.2%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+10.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-08-15	Extended	-50.8%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-01	New	-13.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-10-11	Established	+4.2%
Rotation Down	2024-06-21	2024-06-28	New	-3.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing54

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution16

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -39.01
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -48.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -63.1%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 93th percentile46 in cohort

Test OLN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.54×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.50×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore OLN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 15.88falling

Slow Activity USD 19.84falling

Trend Reference USD 22.14-32.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 31.70-53.0% close margin

Structural low USD 14.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +11.9%

Annualized volatility +45.1%

From structural high -50.8%

From structural low +0.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	-2.5%-21.6% to +26.4%	+44.0%	+56.0%	-3.7%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+6.9%-37.4% to +23.9%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-3.7%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-2.5%-31.1% to +30.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-11.5%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-0.4%-49.5% to +18.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-35.9%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

OLN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map