Weekly structural research ยท NASDAQ ยท Technology

SAIL Stage Analysis

SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 20.77Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction 66โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 61/100directional strength
Maturity 36/100lifecycle context
Confidence 88/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +13.2%USD 18.35 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
View chart values ยท 87 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0920.7715.787.1824120485Upward Expansion6661
2026-10-0220.4315.614.9327734274Upward Expansion6546
2026-09-2520.6415.445.8132429722Upward Expansion6945
2026-09-1819.8315.224.3130558310Upward Expansion6846
2026-09-1117.2415.03-9.1823633641Upward Expansion5944
2026-09-0418.8214.99-2.3314176420Upward Expansion6369
2026-08-2819.8314.852.3918963441Upward Expansion7378
2026-08-2118.6414.71-3.9411379316Upward Expansion6774
2026-08-1419.53โ€”โ€”18980147Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-08-0718.66โ€”โ€”14069311Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-3116.77โ€”โ€”16484486Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-2414.95โ€”โ€”15511431Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-1715.68โ€”โ€”22270078Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-1013.71โ€”โ€”26449426Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-07-0315.27โ€”โ€”17229330Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-2613.18โ€”โ€”24128974Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-1913.33โ€”โ€”25367438Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-1214.62โ€”โ€”34985785Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-06-0518.24โ€”โ€”31729254Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-2918.83โ€”โ€”14491657Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-2215.75โ€”โ€”18919476Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-1513.50โ€”โ€”18391031Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0812.23โ€”โ€”15882290Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-05-0112.07โ€”โ€”11033189Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-2411.95โ€”โ€”10926594Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1711.57โ€”โ€”16213717Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-1010.49โ€”โ€”19344320Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-04-0312.99โ€”โ€”13890278Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2711.77โ€”โ€”15019643Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-2012.25โ€”โ€”28592418Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-1315.45โ€”โ€”11065306Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-03-0615.39โ€”โ€”12168596Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2714.10โ€”โ€”17372318Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-2014.19โ€”โ€”12967664Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-1315.92โ€”โ€”11297900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-02-0614.71โ€”โ€”20108055Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3015.69โ€”โ€”15093910Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2317.80โ€”โ€”10340666Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1618.27โ€”โ€”9831485Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0919.67โ€”โ€”9985914Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0218.95โ€”โ€”7214116Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2621.15โ€”โ€”3849185Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1921.02โ€”โ€”10588022Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1221.03โ€”โ€”19096679Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0520.24โ€”โ€”9738453Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2818.42โ€”โ€”3358654Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2118.62โ€”โ€”9684433Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1419.92โ€”โ€”6912988Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0719.79โ€”โ€”7978959Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3121.68โ€”โ€”8179227Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2422.35โ€”โ€”5012796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1721.90โ€”โ€”8787106Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1021.73โ€”โ€”15314429Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0323.52โ€”โ€”12442146Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2621.92โ€”โ€”9165068Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1922.74โ€”โ€”13983751Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1221.61โ€”โ€”25828467Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0521.98โ€”โ€”10915227Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2920.64โ€”โ€”7641759Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2220.50โ€”โ€”8655571Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1520.47โ€”โ€”16721999Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0819.19โ€”โ€”10568653Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0120.62โ€”โ€”21370736Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2520.24โ€”โ€”6353009Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1821.32โ€”โ€”8004288Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1120.18โ€”โ€”6702202Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0422.16โ€”โ€”7995377Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2722.77โ€”โ€”13282191Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2022.60โ€”โ€”9713046Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1322.61โ€”โ€”18505334Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0619.07โ€”โ€”5177687Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3017.62โ€”โ€”4774072Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2317.09โ€”โ€”9737108Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1618.63โ€”โ€”6262321Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0918.62โ€”โ€”11735006Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0218.70โ€”โ€”4383454Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2517.12โ€”โ€”4442488Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1817.08โ€”โ€”3525832Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1117.56โ€”โ€”9928065Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0415.96โ€”โ€”13637762Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2819.54โ€”โ€”10556481Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2120.25โ€”โ€”8942501Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1418.70โ€”โ€”10828700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0722.05โ€”โ€”9805722Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2824.00โ€”โ€”6635916Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2123.56โ€”โ€”15917699Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1424.55โ€”โ€”54686832Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+31.6%
Trend directionRising+7.5%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.2%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+38.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+7.2%
Relative strength directionImproving+41.0%
Price momentumPositive+98.0%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.92ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

66 / ยฑ100

+7.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

61 /100

+17.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance12
Rotation Up64
Upward Expansion85
Deceleration50
Rotation Down16
Downward Expansion11

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2025-02-14 to 2026-10-09 ยท 8 classified observations out of 87 shown.

Upward Expansion 100%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-08-212026-10-09Developing+11.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing31
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution40
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
86/100
Current Relative Strength
7.18
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+98.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+75.1%
Technology regime cohort
59th percentile97 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.08ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.92ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 20.29rising
Slow Activity USD 17.34rising
Trend Reference USD 15.78+31.6% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 18.35+13.2% close margin
Structural low USD 10.49shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +11.2%
Annualized volatility +68.6%
From structural high -13.1%
From structural low +101.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs QQQ Regime survived Read
Near term1+6.4%+6.4% to +6.4%+100.0%+100.0%+5.3%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context