Weekly structural research · HKG · Communication Services

1698 Stage Analysis

Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close HKD 32.38Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 69/100directional strength

Maturity 87/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -37.5%HKD 51.79 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	32.38	36.57	-34.07	5500320	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2026-09-18	31.10	37.38	-38.55	18057450	Downward Expansion	-74	75
2026-09-11	30.96	38.29	-40.28	4973564	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-09-04	32.58	39.22	-40.59	5340817	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2026-08-28	34.12	40.22	-39.01	6577221	Downward Expansion	-50	36
2026-08-21	34.52	41.26	-40.64	1095484	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2026-08-14	33.60	42.22	-41.45	2098693	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2026-08-07	37.38	43.24	-37.63	597900	Downward Expansion	-20	19
2026-07-31	38.50	44.27	-37.32	2756200	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2026-07-24	34.30	45.30	-42.92	588400	Downward Expansion	-53	45
2026-07-17	36.58	46.46	-39.07	4708600	Downward Expansion	-50	52
2026-07-10	35.04	47.58	-41.63	1635250	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2026-07-03	34.74	48.81	-40.91	2408388	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2026-06-26	31.46	50.08	-45.61	1676043	Downward Expansion	-83	84
2026-06-19	33.94	51.40	-45.06	5962569	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2026-06-12	36.38	52.57	-43.70	1634120	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2026-06-05	35.90	53.82	-45.61	2322503	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2026-05-29	35.34	55.50	-47.47	9914669	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2026-05-22	35.84	57.20	-48.17	12898714	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-05-15	33.80	58.99	-52.28	13341091	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2026-05-08	37.40	60.69	-48.58	7525108	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-05-01	35.08	62.44	-50.97	5726608	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2026-04-24	36.84	64.23	-49.27	7866402	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-04-17	39.68	66.00	-46.09	10443972	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-04-10	36.88	67.87	-49.65	8102727	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2026-04-03	35.50	69.94	-50.37	9196943	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2026-03-27	38.26	71.96	-46.51	9298264	Downward Expansion	-92	88
2026-03-20	40.37	73.95	-44.61	25512660	Downward Expansion	-96	77
2026-03-13	53.93	75.87	-26.93	5645063	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-03-06	54.77	77.39	-26.58	4846867	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-02-27	56.67	78.41	-26.55	7075737	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2026-02-20	58.26	79.21	-23.86	1658580	Downward Expansion	-80	83
2026-02-13	58.81	80.05	-23.58	7904379	Downward Expansion	-83	84
2026-02-06	62.75	81.00	-18.45	6315273	Downward Expansion	-73	75
2026-01-30	65.29	81.53	-17.65	9348625	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2026-01-23	63.34	81.92	-18.10	7429657	Downward Expansion	-79	75
2026-01-16	64.09	82.22	-17.28	7375136	Downward Expansion	-81	75
2026-01-09	68.48	82.52	-9.35	8638007	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2026-01-02	69.43	82.66	-8.19	3172016	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2025-12-26	68.93	82.60	-6.75	1479248	Rotation Down	-73	82
2025-12-19	70.32	82.56	-4.12	5085502	Rotation Down	-42	73
2025-12-12	71.72	82.45	-3.10	8338518	Rotation Down	-39	75
2025-12-05	72.96	82.20	-1.53	5347187	Rotation Down	-39	74
2025-11-28	71.07	81.63	-2.99	8447300	Rotation Down	-41	73
2025-11-21	68.98	81.06	-3.13	7653440	Deceleration	-50	69
2025-11-14	73.91	80.48	-1.16	16160384	Deceleration	-24	30
2025-11-07	86.22	79.67	17.25	4140749	Deceleration	11	15
2025-10-31	86.57	78.47	20.18	3375391	Deceleration	17	17
2025-10-24	89.41	77.39	23.97	3521875	Deceleration	29	23
2025-10-17	84.83	76.30	22.96	5717428	Deceleration	32	28
2025-10-10	89.86	75.33	26.03	3316998	Deceleration	39	26
2025-10-03	88.71	73.96	21.52	5347565	Upward Expansion	46	38
2025-09-26	89.91	72.76	28.72	6403068	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-09-19	95.94	71.38	36.22	4542113	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-09-12	98.83	69.91	42.67	3180112	Upward Expansion	71	74
2025-09-05	96.29	68.28	46.02	4615039	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-08-29	97.88	66.66	52.12	6052675	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-08-22	97.98	64.89	52.55	5548174	Upward Expansion	85	77
2025-08-15	99.58	63.03	57.38	8351296	Upward Expansion	93	75
2025-08-08	85.42	61.04	38.88	3414651	Upward Expansion	75	69
2025-08-01	80.39	59.57	32.89	4830013	Upward Expansion	67	69
2025-07-25	83.53	58.35	33.57	6060485	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-07-18	87.42	57.07	42.96	6381586	Upward Expansion	92	88
2025-07-11	78.50	55.76	32.41	4801647	Upward Expansion	81	88
2025-07-04	77.05	54.69	31.28	4220187	Upward Expansion	82	87
2025-06-27	72.47	53.71	21.57	2773253	Upward Expansion	72	86
2025-06-20	73.16	52.75	26.60	5667309	Upward Expansion	79	90
2025-06-13	72.42	51.75	23.48	10659084	Upward Expansion	81	90
2025-06-06	67.88	50.74	16.08	4642869	Upward Expansion	74	87
2025-05-30	67.63	49.97	17.92	3313966	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-05-23	67.03	49.16	15.10	3423227	Upward Expansion	80	78
2025-05-16	64.04	48.40	11.06	7689440	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-05-09	56.02	47.85	-1.16	4112144	Deceleration	58	30
2025-05-02	53.83	47.59	-3.73	1604799	Deceleration	41	19
2025-04-25	51.73	47.62	-5.52	3391000	Upward Expansion	36	18
2025-04-18	49.59	47.55	-7.35	2646299	Upward Expansion	40	26
2025-04-11	50.19	47.20	-4.37	2881180	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-04-04	54.12	46.77	-5.86	525475	Upward Expansion	58	50
2025-03-28	56.92	46.31	-3.62	783241	Upward Expansion	72	61
2025-03-21	55.68	45.78	-6.90	3968061	Upward Expansion	72	46
2025-03-14	48.71	45.25	-19.66	3382889	Upward Expansion	57	52
2025-03-07	52.54	45.03	-14.56	3780770	Upward Expansion	70	69
2025-02-28	48.56	45.06	-16.79	4084190	Upward Expansion	58	55
2025-02-21	51.80	45.14	-13.54	949420	Balance	74	58
2025-02-14	50.06	45.27	-13.43	534645	Balance	40	30
2025-02-07	47.67	45.43	-12.00	418300	Downward Expansion	-13	8
2025-01-31	44.78	45.77	-13.69	308700	Downward Expansion	-51	52
2025-01-24	42.10	46.21	-18.30	558800	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2025-01-17	40.11	46.61	-20.27	362200	Balance	-68	61
2025-01-10	41.20	47.09	-15.96	132900	Balance	-59	35
2025-01-03	43.69	47.63	-14.07	85500	Balance	-25	11
2024-12-27	45.28	48.08	-12.33	127900	Balance	-12	13
2024-12-20	47.92	48.48	-5.29	259170	Balance	-7	10
2024-12-13	46.42	48.72	-9.10	424900	Downward Expansion	-29	13
2024-12-06	47.67	49.25	-5.97	402902	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2024-11-29	43.64	49.40	-11.63	131119	Downward Expansion	-53	44
2024-11-22	43.24	49.64	-11.31	302124	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2024-11-15	42.24	49.90	-13.96	517300	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-11-08	44.58	49.96	-14.68	437382	Downward Expansion	-49	30
2024-11-01	43.39	50.01	-15.75	193000	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2024-10-25	44.19	50.03	-14.21	595800	Downward Expansion	-32	24
2024-10-18	47.77	49.99	-7.82	1029572	Downward Expansion	-22	27
2024-10-11	48.07	49.87	-8.64	1964408	Downward Expansion	-28	26
2024-10-04	54.73	49.61	-2.13	2725214	Downward Expansion	-17	14
2024-09-27	49.56	49.14	-1.55	2548300	Rotation Down	-57	44
2024-09-20	39.21	48.88	-11.29	777100	Rotation Down	-41	72
2024-09-13	37.32	48.93	-10.70	659200	Rotation Down	-51	79
2024-09-06	40.25	49.09	-3.49	413900	Rotation Down	-46	76
2024-08-30	41.15	49.00	-3.66	891200	Rotation Down	-38	68
2024-08-23	39.81	48.83	-4.16	693700	Upward Expansion	-46	61
2024-08-16	41.95	48.64	2.78	2335203	Upward Expansion	-19	26
2024-08-09	53.39	48.37	34.45	738200	Upward Expansion	29	17
2024-08-02	51.00	47.80	31.60	691100	Upward Expansion	30	18
2024-07-26	55.88	47.25	45.64	373200	Upward Expansion	44	33
2024-07-19	54.73	46.52	41.80	209700	Upward Expansion	45	33
2024-07-12	57.82	45.79	44.75	167900	Upward Expansion	54	39
2024-07-05	57.87	45.00	51.01	235060	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-06-28	54.14	44.11	44.12	143500	Upward Expansion	49	42
2024-06-21	54.68	43.36	45.08	258700	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-06-14	57.42	42.62	55.21	389446	Upward Expansion	66	59
2024-06-07	57.12	41.76	53.07	810512	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-05-31	57.17	40.82	57.98	718900	Upward Expansion	70	81
2024-05-24	55.27	39.85	50.73	417315	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-05-17	62.12	38.93	63.54	797500	Upward Expansion	94	96
2024-05-10	52.38	37.72	44.43	159723	Upward Expansion	79	81
2024-05-03	50.59	36.82	45.11	570200	Upward Expansion	78	75
2024-04-26	51.19	35.94	55.77	417763	Upward Expansion	85	69
2024-04-19	44.13	35.07	48.38	260700	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-04-12	46.12	34.43	52.42	721722	Upward Expansion	75	60
2024-04-05	43.88	33.73	47.06	139500	Upward Expansion	68	55
2024-03-29	42.99	33.14	47.52	528644	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-03-22	44.13	—	—	860150	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-15	40.36	—	—	394700	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-08	40.55	—	—	600800	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-03-01	41.75	—	—	474700	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-23	40.80	—	—	587700	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-16	42.10	—	—	148500	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-09	37.37	—	—	145685	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-02-02	36.28	—	—	219475	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-26	33.99	—	—	174700	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-19	33.90	—	—	82900	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-12	36.28	—	—	247000	Not yet classified	—	—
2024-01-05	34.54	—	—	136135	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-29	33.80	—	—	41640	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-22	32.85	—	—	75220	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-15	34.29	—	—	143800	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-08	30.96	—	—	145300	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-12-01	31.71	—	—	191200	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-24	32.40	—	—	386243	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-17	31.86	—	—	185900	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-10	28.68	—	—	127200	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-11-03	28.13	—	—	127680	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-27	27.68	—	—	172400	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-20	25.94	—	—	147400	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-13	25.45	—	—	115600	Not yet classified	—	—
2023-10-06	24.20	—	—	37900	Not yet classified	—	—

Price vs TrendBelow-11.5%

Trend directionFalling-21.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-37.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-34.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.5%

Price momentumNegative-15.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.79×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-63 / ±100

-12.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

69 /100

+32.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1698 Directional State ↗ 1698 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance22

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration38

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 131 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 41%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-09-25	Extended	-53.4%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-26	Developing	-3.0%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	-23.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-10-03	Established	+38.5%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+4.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-04-25	Developing	+6.5%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-02-21	New	+3.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-02-07	New	+13.2%
Balance	2024-12-20	2025-01-17	Developing	-16.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-04	2024-12-13	Developing	-15.2%
Rotation Down	2024-08-30	2024-09-27	Developing	+20.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-29	2024-08-23	Established	-7.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing69

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution2

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: -34.07
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -15.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -13.6%
Communication Services regime cohort: 52th percentile81 in cohort

Test 1698 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.06×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.79×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1698 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 31.90falling

Slow Activity HKD 34.65falling

Trend Reference HKD 36.57-11.5% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 51.79-37.5% close margin

Structural low HKD 30.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.2%

Annualized volatility +44.0%

From structural high -65.1%

From structural low +6.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-5.3%-32.5% to +23.0%	+30.8%	+69.2%	-6.6%	+84.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-11.2%-48.9% to +22.9%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-1.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-25.5%-50.0% to -1.1%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-20.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+62.1%+62.1% to +62.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+42.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1698 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map