Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

DBX Stage Analysis

Dropbox Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 34.36Tenure EstablishedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 43−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 30/100directional strength

Maturity 88/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +25.0%USD 27.49 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	34.36	29.34	5.43	16012618	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-10-02	33.90	29.05	4.16	22905024	Upward Expansion	46	36
2026-09-25	32.32	28.81	-0.18	29811803	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-09-18	36.48	28.57	15.91	25211956	Upward Expansion	73	63
2026-09-11	35.56	28.20	13.99	16845017	Upward Expansion	70	63
2026-09-04	34.83	27.83	10.86	19163536	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-08-28	35.70	27.51	13.85	15413091	Upward Expansion	77	89
2026-08-21	34.47	27.16	10.33	13664434	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-08-14	34.42	26.89	7.30	25232876	Upward Expansion	79	88
2026-08-07	34.81	26.62	9.66	26207499	Upward Expansion	88	89
2026-07-31	32.56	26.36	7.85	23574090	Upward Expansion	80	78
2026-07-24	29.19	26.18	-2.81	15914136	Upward Expansion	59	67
2026-07-17	30.62	26.14	0.04	18436259	Upward Expansion	75	71
2026-07-10	29.19	26.07	-8.77	15118457	Balance	67	47
2026-07-03	28.56	26.04	-9.44	13253428	Balance	36	23
2026-06-26	26.64	26.07	-15.18	20448093	Balance	11	11
2026-06-19	25.97	26.18	-21.51	22129320	Rotation Up	23	17
2026-06-12	27.09	26.30	-16.64	18950518	Rotation Up	19	23
2026-06-05	27.52	26.41	-13.94	18571659	Rotation Up	22	39
2026-05-29	26.88	26.52	-20.30	18390704	Rotation Up	20	31
2026-05-22	27.43	26.59	-16.99	17864950	Balance	24	32
2026-05-15	26.82	26.66	-18.47	23256777	Balance	-2	20
2026-05-08	28.90	26.73	-13.07	25498266	Downward Expansion	2	16
2026-05-01	24.93	26.71	-21.53	15714308	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2026-04-24	24.02	26.86	-23.90	14440819	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-04-17	24.27	27.10	-22.19	17047448	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2026-04-10	22.06	27.32	-25.61	18589679	Downward Expansion	-78	82
2026-04-03	23.40	27.61	-18.34	11915800	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2026-03-27	22.15	27.83	-20.27	17585275	Downward Expansion	-83	54
2026-03-20	25.02	28.06	-13.44	18097174	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-03-13	25.75	28.18	-13.08	13975960	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2026-03-06	26.79	28.25	-10.83	22400364	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2026-02-27	24.99	28.26	-18.15	29526746	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-02-20	25.48	28.30	-17.07	22615789	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2026-02-13	24.53	28.38	-19.54	19590689	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-02-06	25.00	28.47	-19.66	29514212	Downward Expansion	-78	82
2026-01-30	25.48	28.52	-20.34	19733714	Rotation Down	-75	75
2026-01-23	26.30	28.60	-18.53	13080807	Rotation Down	-43	62
2026-01-16	26.13	28.66	-19.39	16059280	Rotation Down	-49	63
2026-01-09	27.28	28.75	-17.08	15470720	Rotation Down	-36	53
2026-01-02	26.93	28.78	-16.78	15317870	Balance	-33	46
2025-12-26	28.00	28.86	-15.41	12200952	Balance	-21	22
2025-12-19	28.69	28.89	-12.69	23503794	Balance	8	12
2025-12-12	28.32	28.89	-13.71	24539963	Balance	5	7
2025-12-05	29.34	28.91	-12.62	13452807	Upward Expansion	43	21
2025-11-28	29.88	28.91	-10.39	9736964	Upward Expansion	48	32
2025-11-21	29.66	28.87	-6.86	19911656	Upward Expansion	47	28
2025-11-14	30.36	28.83	-7.79	18037108	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-11-07	30.87	28.72	-6.53	25074418	Upward Expansion	49	24
2025-10-31	29.00	28.60	-14.96	14697385	Upward Expansion	27	20
2025-10-24	29.36	28.48	-12.47	13074738	Upward Expansion	30	21
2025-10-17	29.10	28.39	-11.50	13548556	Upward Expansion	36	18
2025-10-10	28.14	28.30	-12.51	12799239	Upward Expansion	35	26
2025-10-03	29.41	28.21	-10.80	16128832	Upward Expansion	62	64
2025-09-26	31.42	28.12	-3.65	12974560	Upward Expansion	77	80
2025-09-19	30.61	27.93	-6.56	27969992	Upward Expansion	71	74
2025-09-12	30.91	27.80	-3.62	16167462	Upward Expansion	78	74
2025-09-05	29.87	27.87	-5.12	10280347	Balance	66	44
2025-08-29	29.06	27.94	-6.78	15407574	Balance	19	18
2025-08-22	28.82	28.04	-7.87	18080637	Balance	-7	6
2025-08-15	27.82	28.13	-11.91	16366358	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-08-08	26.91	28.22	-14.39	21387454	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2025-08-01	26.46	28.31	-12.78	15197225	Balance	-68	59
2025-07-25	27.77	28.42	-10.56	12672504	Balance	-54	44
2025-07-18	27.06	28.52	-12.18	19074255	Balance	-61	46
2025-07-11	26.61	28.62	-12.54	16675031	Balance	-55	33
2025-07-04	28.00	28.73	-8.25	15228542	Balance	-33	19
2025-06-27	28.12	28.76	-6.32	17793122	Balance	-25	12
2025-06-20	28.70	28.75	-0.27	18908747	Balance	-1	7
2025-06-13	28.09	28.72	-2.14	16820372	Balance	9	10
2025-06-06	29.47	28.69	2.41	15313697	Balance	22	27
2025-05-30	28.86	28.61	2.71	13050224	Balance	15	21
2025-05-23	28.59	28.51	3.92	14894924	Balance	15	22
2025-05-16	28.91	28.43	2.82	20575451	Balance	14	21
2025-05-09	29.46	28.34	12.09	20957173	Balance	8	17
2025-05-02	28.61	28.23	8.96	16508759	Balance	4	12
2025-04-25	28.58	28.12	12.78	17642309	Deceleration	-4	8
2025-04-18	27.11	28.01	14.00	12653598	Deceleration	-16	20
2025-04-11	27.08	27.93	11.50	25154832	Rotation Down	-29	29
2025-04-04	25.45	27.85	12.94	21273185	Rotation Down	-42	49
2025-03-28	26.56	27.77	6.50	20554354	Rotation Down	-26	58
2025-03-21	26.50	27.72	3.84	30056797	Rotation Down	-26	60
2025-03-14	25.62	27.65	0.65	20536017	Upward Expansion	-36	48
2025-03-07	26.42	27.56	1.17	20345973	Upward Expansion	-12	32
2025-02-28	25.98	27.42	-3.77	32084422	Upward Expansion	1	14
2025-02-21	26.73	27.31	-4.48	31499681	Upward Expansion	24	27
2025-02-14	32.78	27.22	14.33	13691490	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-02-07	32.04	26.90	15.10	12206979	Upward Expansion	73	75
2025-01-31	32.15	26.59	15.01	18637631	Upward Expansion	78	63
2025-01-24	31.48	26.26	10.48	9955080	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-01-17	30.59	25.96	8.33	9757450	Upward Expansion	70	58
2025-01-10	29.41	25.68	6.45	12443872	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-01-03	30.00	25.41	5.47	10426061	Upward Expansion	67	77
2024-12-27	30.52	25.12	5.88	7465632	Upward Expansion	79	89
2024-12-20	30.25	24.85	5.39	24035897	Upward Expansion	82	89
2024-12-13	29.77	24.61	0.84	17156896	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-12-06	29.06	24.41	-1.40	11369188	Upward Expansion	82	82
2024-11-29	27.66	24.21	-3.59	8471167	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-11-22	27.99	24.07	-2.34	13575168	Upward Expansion	77	65
2024-11-15	27.06	23.94	-4.43	14264963	Upward Expansion	69	55
2024-11-08	27.04	23.80	-8.27	19950177	Upward Expansion	74	63
2024-11-01	25.98	23.67	-7.60	15004369	Upward Expansion	63	65
2024-10-25	26.00	23.58	-9.54	11229549	Upward Expansion	65	69
2024-10-18	26.47	23.52	-8.45	10720707	Upward Expansion	76	75
2024-10-11	25.90	23.45	-10.87	10745545	Upward Expansion	71	69
2024-10-04	25.37	23.38	-12.29	13590581	Upward Expansion	67	63
2024-09-27	25.31	23.33	-13.08	11486556	Rotation Up	69	55
2024-09-20	24.70	23.30	-14.97	17975107	Rotation Up	35	47
2024-09-13	24.59	23.27	-14.74	14275411	Rotation Up	33	45
2024-09-06	23.10	23.29	-15.73	13137878	Rotation Up	12	27
2024-08-30	25.14	23.62	-14.24	15212211	Balance	32	35
2024-08-23	24.33	23.87	-18.20	15853391	Balance	2	4
2024-08-16	22.87	24.13	-22.90	17876666	Balance	-20	10
2024-08-09	22.44	24.44	-20.87	22094380	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2024-08-02	22.50	24.74	-21.01	12681841	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-07-26	24.15	24.96	-18.42	10906213	Downward Expansion	-12	16
2024-07-19	23.12	25.14	-24.32	13208897	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-07-12	22.68	25.38	-29.20	13943490	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-07-05	22.33	25.61	-31.03	11012593	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2024-06-28	22.47	25.78	-28.73	23462000	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2024-06-21	22.13	25.99	-30.38	26926070	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-06-14	21.23	26.21	-33.59	22916795	Downward Expansion	-81	83
2024-06-07	21.42	26.40	-31.18	25057436	Downward Expansion	-85	89
2024-05-31	22.53	26.58	-26.11	37676732	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2024-05-24	22.89	26.69	-26.48	18979568	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2024-05-17	23.73	26.79	-23.08	19397441	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2024-05-10	23.13	26.89	-23.71	27369763	Downward Expansion	-65	50
2024-05-03	23.37	27.04	-22.10	17963438	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-04-26	24.15	27.18	-18.95	12401770	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2024-04-19	22.98	27.29	-20.00	15899313	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2024-04-12	22.99	27.42	-24.57	14144111	Downward Expansion	-73	63
2024-04-05	23.27	27.55	-24.39	15582823	Downward Expansion	-73	62
2024-03-29	24.30	27.70	-21.98	12971567	Downward Expansion	-65	77
2024-03-22	24.35	27.82	-22.52	20887467	Rotation Down	-67	85
2024-03-15	23.82	27.92	-22.22	28155620	Rotation Down	-43	79
2024-03-08	24.02	28.02	-22.71	22300744	Rotation Down	-37	54
2024-03-01	24.14	28.14	-23.72	27480004	Rotation Down	-42	50
2024-02-23	24.00	28.26	-22.95	29472024	Rotation Down	-28	33
2024-02-16	25.08	28.34	-18.67	35571149	Rotation Down	14	16
2024-02-09	33.16	28.41	5.57	13756136	Upward Expansion	78	90
2024-02-02	32.47	28.21	5.22	13064262	Upward Expansion	76	89
2024-01-26	32.10	28.03	5.20	14442686	Upward Expansion	77	83
2024-01-19	32.17	27.85	5.98	11521888	Upward Expansion	83	79
2024-01-12	31.57	27.65	6.82	14716606	Upward Expansion	81	74
2024-01-05	29.16	27.47	1.70	11059247	Upward Expansion	61	66
2023-12-29	29.48	27.29	-0.65	6841190	Upward Expansion	64	68
2023-12-22	30.15	27.10	1.61	11113554	Upward Expansion	78	76
2023-12-15	29.62	26.86	0.48	19146978	Upward Expansion	75	70
2023-12-08	27.59	26.62	-3.57	13158075	Upward Expansion	52	45
2023-12-01	28.78	26.44	0.91	19074443	Deceleration	65	51
2023-11-24	28.53	26.19	-0.03	10016987	Deceleration	51	25
2023-11-17	27.14	25.92	-4.17	18286914	Deceleration	15	15
2023-11-10	26.61	25.74	-4.35	17407807	Deceleration	10	17
2023-11-03	26.00	25.58	-4.09	18387379	Deceleration	4	12
2023-10-27	25.94	25.43	1.62	10803136	Deceleration	9	7
2023-10-20	26.69	25.28	1.72	12685791	Deceleration	38	24

Price vs TrendAbove+17.1%

Trend directionRising+11.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+25.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+16.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+14.2%

Price momentumPositive+55.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.98×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

43 / ±100

-27.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

30 /100

-33.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DBX Directional State ↗ DBX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion64

Deceleration88

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion16

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 23%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-09	Established	+12.2%
Balance	2026-06-26	2026-07-10	New	+9.6%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-19	New	-3.4%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-05-22	New	+2.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-08	Established	+15.6%
Rotation Down	2026-01-09	2026-01-30	New	-6.6%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-01-02	New	-4.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-12-05	Established	-5.1%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+3.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-08-15	New	+3.4%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-08-01	Established	-7.5%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-04-25	New	+5.4%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	+2.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-03-14	Established	+1.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution45

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 82/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.43
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +55.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +32.8%
Technology regime cohort: 18th percentile97 in cohort

Test DBX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.98×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DBX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 34.19falling

Slow Activity USD 31.62rising

Trend Reference USD 29.34+17.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 27.49+25.0% close margin

Structural low USD 22.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.2%

Annualized volatility +40.3%

From structural high -10.0%

From structural low +58.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	25	+2.4%-25.7% to +12.4%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.8%	+76.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-7.4%-19.2% to +18.2%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-5.3%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-8.2%-32.3% to +19.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-11.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-12.7%-26.8% to +40.6%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-16.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DBX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map