Weekly structural research · HKG · Healthcare

1513 Stage Analysis

Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close HKD 22.16Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -61−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 52/100directional strength

Maturity 59/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.3%HKD 26.47 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	22.16	24.84	-13.56	4955260	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-10-02	21.94	25.02	-14.19	14514525	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2026-09-25	21.22	25.24	-19.39	5750474	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-09-18	20.40	25.50	-23.84	7833184	Downward Expansion	-77	92
2026-09-11	20.78	25.79	-23.29	6992216	Downward Expansion	-78	92
2026-09-04	20.38	26.07	-27.96	920752	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2026-08-28	20.30	26.37	-28.92	2568448	Downward Expansion	-86	76
2026-08-21	24.92	26.67	-15.08	939500	Balance	-42	19
2026-08-14	25.48	26.84	-10.86	591970	Balance	-19	13
2026-08-07	26.48	26.97	-10.00	884040	Downward Expansion	-7	14
2026-07-31	25.96	27.09	-13.17	896500	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2026-07-24	25.36	27.18	-12.81	423031	Downward Expansion	-34	25
2026-07-17	26.22	27.30	-9.17	724400	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-07-10	25.70	27.41	-10.21	476100	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2026-07-03	25.64	27.59	-7.50	1299700	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-06-26	23.40	27.77	-13.28	752255	Downward Expansion	-79	68
2026-06-19	24.40	28.02	-14.55	2474136	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2026-06-12	25.54	28.22	-13.70	2187707	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2026-06-05	24.70	28.47	-17.75	395100	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2026-05-29	24.66	28.71	-18.86	5583981	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2026-05-22	25.80	28.93	-16.80	4284352	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2026-05-15	25.39	29.12	-19.42	4334948	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2026-05-08	26.01	29.36	-18.96	2874245	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2026-05-01	26.42	29.64	-15.85	2957497	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2026-04-24	26.59	29.94	-16.08	6596398	Downward Expansion	-69	38
2026-04-17	27.16	30.18	-15.09	5160756	Downward Expansion	-66	36
2026-04-10	29.00	30.45	-8.57	4124064	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2026-04-03	29.20	30.72	-5.20	4309103	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2026-03-27	27.18	31.01	-11.20	4253264	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2026-03-20	26.80	31.29	-13.61	3587052	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2026-03-13	27.70	31.64	-11.42	4508419	Downward Expansion	-76	57
2026-03-06	28.40	31.92	-10.18	4948650	Downward Expansion	-70	50
2026-02-27	29.04	32.21	-11.05	2929660	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2026-02-20	29.02	32.49	-10.34	130500	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2026-02-13	29.22	32.83	-10.19	5133405	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2026-02-06	29.32	33.11	-9.89	3984237	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2026-01-30	29.40	33.12	-12.49	4585156	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2026-01-23	29.88	33.14	-9.21	3685739	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2026-01-16	29.60	33.12	-10.57	3296384	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2026-01-09	30.02	33.09	-7.39	3905990	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2026-01-02	28.64	33.15	-12.21	1917418	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2025-12-26	29.06	33.14	-9.42	727950	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2025-12-19	29.40	33.10	-8.17	3339354	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2025-12-12	31.00	33.02	-4.48	3696698	Rotation Down	-35	53
2025-12-05	31.18	32.84	-4.50	2050614	Rotation Down	-33	41
2025-11-28	30.72	32.64	-5.25	1540045	Rotation Down	-39	41
2025-11-21	30.62	32.45	-3.36	2539681	Rotation Down	-33	42
2025-11-14	32.92	32.28	-1.53	4213949	Rotation Down	-20	42
2025-11-07	32.06	32.02	-2.98	4346828	Deceleration	-21	46
2025-10-31	31.26	31.78	-4.23	4776257	Deceleration	-10	35
2025-10-24	31.44	31.63	-4.67	4691684	Deceleration	-7	19
2025-10-17	32.40	31.46	1.72	7000572	Deceleration	4	14
2025-10-10	34.50	31.24	3.96	2692207	Deceleration	32	20
2025-10-03	35.42	30.95	3.41	2456665	Deceleration	36	20
2025-09-26	33.70	30.59	2.17	5315741	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-09-19	35.48	30.28	5.82	4616919	Upward Expansion	46	35
2025-09-12	37.00	29.93	11.00	8197836	Upward Expansion	49	40
2025-09-05	37.94	29.54	18.20	7551878	Upward Expansion	66	48
2025-08-29	35.44	29.11	12.06	11969323	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-08-22	37.28	28.78	16.81	8556321	Upward Expansion	65	59
2025-08-15	36.38	28.37	14.62	11012905	Upward Expansion	64	75
2025-08-08	37.00	27.98	18.63	6401751	Upward Expansion	67	87
2025-08-01	37.50	27.56	22.11	12173870	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-07-25	39.10	27.17	23.21	20588839	Upward Expansion	90	94
2025-07-18	37.70	26.75	21.85	33760956	Upward Expansion	92	86
2025-07-11	29.65	26.35	-1.16	5573926	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-07-04	29.95	26.23	0.65	5711658	Upward Expansion	67	72
2025-06-27	29.35	26.10	-2.97	7074156	Upward Expansion	63	74
2025-06-20	28.65	25.98	-2.42	9542507	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-06-13	31.70	25.86	6.13	14654527	Upward Expansion	90	88
2025-06-06	28.42	25.64	-4.51	4572444	Upward Expansion	72	71
2025-05-30	27.99	25.56	-4.17	6043565	Balance	71	59
2025-05-23	26.93	25.49	-9.19	10006925	Balance	58	32
2025-05-16	25.58	25.45	-13.03	6624848	Balance	-28	13
2025-05-09	25.10	25.51	-13.18	4445590	Balance	-35	20
2025-05-02	24.95	25.59	-12.69	2230193	Balance	-37	22
2025-04-25	25.72	25.76	-8.17	5007508	Balance	-20	8
2025-04-18	24.90	25.81	-8.91	2914921	Balance	-21	12
2025-04-11	24.86	25.80	-7.35	9124478	Balance	0	13
2025-04-04	26.93	25.78	-8.38	6502055	Balance	29	31
2025-03-28	26.35	25.69	-12.75	5438271	Balance	19	19
2025-03-21	25.87	25.61	-15.72	3391251	Balance	-21	10
2025-03-14	25.67	25.51	-17.79	4076451	Balance	-43	28
2025-03-07	24.61	25.45	-22.55	3479040	Balance	-57	45
2025-02-28	24.37	25.43	-19.63	3888226	Balance	-36	29
2025-02-21	24.95	25.39	-20.16	3802494	Balance	-15	10
2025-02-14	25.29	25.32	-16.52	3584040	Rotation Down	-19	12
2025-02-07	25.10	25.25	-11.75	2312677	Rotation Down	-23	27
2025-01-31	25.58	25.21	-6.36	627257	Rotation Down	-13	32
2025-01-24	25.10	25.15	-7.55	1881535	Rotation Down	-14	34
2025-01-17	24.42	25.09	-7.98	3503920	Deceleration	-21	32
2025-01-10	24.66	25.08	-4.79	1824978	Deceleration	3	8
2025-01-03	25.63	25.08	-4.68	1549900	Deceleration	34	17
2024-12-27	26.40	25.05	-3.51	1307014	Deceleration	39	21
2024-12-20	25.77	24.97	-4.00	2400616	Deceleration	30	15
2024-12-13	26.20	24.93	-3.58	4276589	Deceleration	25	11
2024-12-06	25.96	24.91	-3.89	3904800	Deceleration	28	15
2024-11-29	25.63	24.94	-2.91	3639966	Deceleration	25	17
2024-11-22	25.24	24.90	-3.32	3325834	Deceleration	26	20
2024-11-15	25.14	24.86	-4.56	2465060	Deceleration	28	21
2024-11-08	26.01	24.79	-7.37	4073456	Deceleration	37	19
2024-11-01	25.63	24.68	-7.73	3676525	Upward Expansion	52	31
2024-10-25	25.77	24.57	-7.51	2978725	Upward Expansion	61	60
2024-10-18	27.41	24.52	-2.57	3873206	Upward Expansion	65	77
2024-10-11	27.55	24.43	-4.03	6998610	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-10-04	30.11	24.35	-1.94	3495550	Upward Expansion	93	88
2024-09-27	27.31	24.19	-1.92	4321108	Balance	44	53
2024-09-20	24.52	24.13	-0.49	1001642	Balance	15	16
2024-09-13	24.08	24.14	2.81	2464874	Balance	-23	11
2024-09-06	24.47	24.13	4.17	1586400	Balance	-19	11
2024-08-30	23.89	24.07	-1.09	1924384	Balance	-36	16
2024-08-23	22.69	23.99	-3.93	1676121	Balance	-62	29
2024-08-16	23.89	23.96	2.35	1607396	Balance	-11	10
2024-08-09	23.99	23.90	5.02	3344605	Rotation Down	-24	24
2024-08-02	23.27	23.85	3.14	3148813	Rotation Down	-27	34
2024-07-26	22.93	23.82	1.36	2582241	Balance	-33	36
2024-07-19	23.17	23.79	0.23	2513734	Balance	-21	22
2024-07-12	23.89	23.72	-1.43	3866475	Balance	9	14
2024-07-05	23.67	23.63	0.52	2345695	Balance	6	12
2024-06-28	23.35	23.52	-0.26	2507393	Balance	13	11
2024-06-21	24.17	23.45	1.61	2483748	Upward Expansion	31	16
2024-06-14	24.58	23.37	4.08	1323751	Upward Expansion	35	16
2024-06-07	24.76	23.26	2.68	2233480	Upward Expansion	49	28
2024-05-31	24.08	23.14	1.60	2333379	Upward Expansion	55	52
2024-05-24	24.53	23.04	0.68	2630481	Upward Expansion	59	64
2024-05-17	25.71	22.92	0.50	3106786	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-05-10	26.62	22.77	7.38	5001289	Deceleration	75	57
2024-05-03	24.71	22.64	2.53	2985356	Deceleration	44	19
2024-04-26	23.85	22.57	3.73	4908668	Deceleration	24	22
2024-04-19	23.03	22.55	9.20	4199565	Deceleration	21	23
2024-04-12	22.90	22.57	5.70	2834868	Deceleration	26	22
2024-04-05	22.26	22.58	2.94	3519062	Upward Expansion	26	18
2024-03-29	24.21	22.57	13.42	1164912	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-03-22	24.76	22.51	16.81	1905768	Upward Expansion	63	71
2024-03-15	24.99	22.41	16.97	3244680	Upward Expansion	66	79
2024-03-08	25.44	22.32	22.40	3943642	Upward Expansion	73	83
2024-03-01	25.53	22.19	21.87	3339111	Rotation Up	81	82
2024-02-23	24.80	22.15	18.13	3863481	Rotation Up	50	58
2024-02-16	23.62	22.16	15.71	228500	Balance	31	30
2024-02-09	22.81	22.15	16.50	3535481	Balance	3	6
2024-02-02	21.40	22.16	11.37	2650122	Balance	-18	11
2024-01-26	21.99	22.21	11.98	2985610	Balance	-5	16
2024-01-19	21.94	22.24	17.05	2803716	Balance	-5	18
2024-01-12	22.53	22.25	13.99	4566095	Balance	0	13
2024-01-05	22.44	22.30	12.07	2820065	Downward Expansion	-16	13
2023-12-29	21.94	22.35	6.79	1554911	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2023-12-22	21.03	22.42	7.07	2587414	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2023-12-15	21.17	22.51	5.16	2436443	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2023-12-08	20.53	22.62	5.04	2139028	Downward Expansion	-65	41
2023-12-01	21.08	22.76	4.90	1485414	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2023-11-24	21.76	22.88	3.90	944594	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2023-11-17	21.26	22.96	2.12	1985578	Downward Expansion	-59	63
2023-11-10	21.31	23.05	3.83	2440476	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2023-11-03	20.94	23.19	-0.54	2232008	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2023-10-27	20.94	23.30	0.82	4893918	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2023-10-20	21.40	23.39	4.33	5055564	Downward Expansion	-58	35

Price vs TrendBelow-10.8%

Trend directionFalling-8.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.4%

Price momentumNegative-23.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.88×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-61 / ±100

+16.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

52 /100

-39.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1513 Directional State ↗ 1513 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance17

Rotation Up25

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration61

Rotation Down50

Downward Expansion75

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 34%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	+9.2%
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	-2.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-08-07	Extended	-9.9%
Rotation Down	2025-11-14	2025-12-12	Developing	-5.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-07	Developing	-9.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-09-26	Established	+18.6%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-05-30	Established	+12.2%
Rotation Down	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+0.8%
Deceleration	2024-11-08	2025-01-17	Developing	-6.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	-14.9%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-09-27	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Down	2024-08-02	2024-08-09	New	+3.1%
Balance	2024-06-28	2024-07-26	Developing	-1.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-17	2024-06-21	Developing	-6.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 69/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.56
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -23.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -17.1%
Healthcare regime cohort: 27th percentile132 in cohort

Test 1513 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.62×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.88×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1513 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 21.59rising

Slow Activity HKD 23.75falling

Trend Reference HKD 24.84-10.8% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 26.47-16.3% close margin

Structural low HKD 20.14shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +37.0%

From structural high -35.9%

From structural low +10.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	+0.7%-21.8% to +20.3%	+52.2%	+47.8%	+1.1%	+87.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-6.6%-16.4% to +21.1%	+44.4%	+55.6%	-3.6%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+3.8%-17.0% to +17.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+9.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+3.5%-23.2% to +24.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+8.0%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1513 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map