Weekly structural research · JPX · Consumer Defensive

2009 Stage Analysis

The Torigoe Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 1,113.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 79−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 86/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 63/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +34.4%JPY 828.31 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	1,113.00	1,088.73	-10.78	43800	Rotation Up	79	86
2026-09-18	1,112.00	1,088.87	-9.48	50600	Rotation Up	56	73
2026-09-11	1,098.00	1,087.97	-9.67	53400	Rotation Up	38	61
2026-09-04	1,105.00	1,087.00	-10.89	68000	Rotation Up	45	62
2026-08-28	1,097.00	1,085.83	-13.90	64900	Balance	37	47
2026-08-21	1,085.00	1,084.10	-14.82	15000	Balance	10	18
2026-08-14	1,089.00	1,083.43	-18.27	21700	Balance	28	23
2026-08-07	1,084.00	1,082.37	-15.21	13800	Balance	6	8
2026-07-31	1,082.00	1,081.07	-14.13	9600	Balance	2	7
2026-07-24	1,086.00	1,080.33	-14.54	7100	Balance	5	6
2026-07-17	1,081.00	1,081.37	-14.67	8600	Balance	-6	5
2026-07-10	1,081.00	1,081.13	-20.54	5100	Balance	-19	17
2026-07-03	1,077.00	1,080.73	-22.61	6000	Balance	-12	27
2026-06-26	1,082.00	1,080.18	-22.29	23700	Balance	-12	23
2026-06-19	1,068.00	1,080.61	-25.76	13300	Balance	-22	26
2026-06-12	1,074.00	1,080.81	-20.05	12300	Balance	-15	15
2026-06-05	1,084.00	1,080.71	-20.54	17400	Balance	12	7
2026-05-29	1,086.00	1,080.15	-20.65	103600	Balance	11	7
2026-05-22	1,080.00	1,079.27	-17.86	80800	Balance	9	9
2026-05-15	1,082.00	1,078.33	-15.61	102400	Balance	21	15
2026-05-08	1,086.00	1,076.94	-17.43	26300	Upward Expansion	26	16
2026-05-01	1,079.00	1,074.24	-13.96	54900	Upward Expansion	27	14
2026-04-24	1,078.00	1,071.61	-14.64	105700	Upward Expansion	34	19
2026-04-17	1,090.00	1,068.54	-12.25	115800	Upward Expansion	52	31
2026-04-10	1,103.00	1,065.35	-9.26	87000	Upward Expansion	57	36
2026-04-03	1,108.00	1,060.67	-2.71	113200	Upward Expansion	61	36
2026-03-27	1,100.00	1,056.57	-4.05	155100	Upward Expansion	58	35
2026-03-20	1,095.00	1,051.45	-4.51	90700	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-03-13	1,082.00	1,045.51	-6.42	137300	Upward Expansion	57	50
2026-03-06	1,095.00	1,039.46	-8.41	176400	Upward Expansion	60	59
2026-02-27	1,117.00	1,032.62	-11.74	217900	Upward Expansion	78	62
2026-02-20	1,085.00	1,024.67	-11.30	205800	Deceleration	51	31
2026-02-13	1,069.00	1,017.73	-12.79	183000	Deceleration	29	19
2026-02-06	1,070.00	1,010.86	-8.39	129900	Deceleration	28	16
2026-01-30	1,045.00	1,003.46	-8.86	217400	Deceleration	30	21
2026-01-23	1,065.00	997.36	-7.86	235300	Deceleration	36	23
2026-01-16	1,057.00	990.92	-8.53	247400	Deceleration	43	33
2026-01-09	1,045.00	985.26	-5.92	373500	Upward Expansion	45	38
2026-01-02	1,060.00	980.25	-1.34	375300	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-12-26	1,117.00	974.90	3.40	305700	Upward Expansion	83	66
2025-12-19	1,073.89	966.57	2.30	210600	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-12-12	1,069.10	959.64	-0.56	187700	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-12-05	1,060.48	952.39	-0.25	380000	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-11-28	1,094.97	945.04	3.93	209600	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-11-21	1,073.89	935.66	5.87	247300	Upward Expansion	73	68
2025-11-14	1,071.02	927.29	2.47	295300	Upward Expansion	75	70
2025-11-07	1,067.19	919.82	2.81	152800	Upward Expansion	79	75
2025-10-31	1,059.52	910.88	-1.56	216400	Upward Expansion	82	76
2025-10-24	1,051.86	901.46	4.30	156300	Upward Expansion	86	74
2025-10-17	1,040.36	892.29	7.43	175600	Upward Expansion	88	74
2025-10-10	1,004.92	883.22	3.27	157600	Upward Expansion	77	71
2025-10-03	1,000.13	875.24	8.53	206000	Upward Expansion	79	76
2025-09-26	985.76	866.78	8.55	123100	Upward Expansion	74	89
2025-09-19	994.38	858.76	10.89	228800	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-09-12	962.77	850.36	8.60	142100	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-09-05	984.80	842.92	16.12	236300	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-08-29	946.48	833.82	13.06	196000	Upward Expansion	91	93
2025-08-22	916.78	825.68	10.36	161100	Upward Expansion	83	82
2025-08-15	900.50	818.49	7.03	275000	Upward Expansion	76	65
2025-08-08	889.96	811.09	10.17	154800	Deceleration	71	52
2025-08-01	878.46	804.76	11.90	93600	Deceleration	51	36
2025-07-25	876.55	799.62	10.33	105200	Deceleration	47	32
2025-07-18	863.14	794.19	13.60	122900	Deceleration	41	30
2025-07-11	847.81	789.66	12.95	214900	Upward Expansion	46	39
2025-07-04	862.18	782.70	14.89	184600	Upward Expansion	61	53
2025-06-27	871.76	775.23	15.91	262400	Upward Expansion	65	61
2025-06-20	887.09	766.92	24.02	204100	Upward Expansion	67	69
2025-06-13	894.75	758.04	27.89	347900	Upward Expansion	76	76
2025-06-06	899.54	748.85	29.92	242500	Upward Expansion	84	83
2025-05-30	866.97	739.31	25.48	137000	Upward Expansion	75	75
2025-05-23	866.01	730.83	28.97	241700	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-05-16	851.64	721.99	25.82	299300	Upward Expansion	78	69
2025-05-09	840.14	714.21	25.86	217600	Upward Expansion	76	76
2025-05-02	813.32	706.74	24.91	171400	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-04-25	822.90	700.38	31.12	315300	Upward Expansion	74	68
2025-04-18	846.85	693.80	39.72	329300	Upward Expansion	92	75
2025-04-11	798.95	686.47	37.49	502900	Upward Expansion	80	79
2025-04-04	776.92	680.44	34.12	414400	Upward Expansion	73	84
2025-03-28	776.92	675.00	22.99	274200	Upward Expansion	79	88
2025-03-21	768.30	670.09	20.48	306100	Upward Expansion	78	87
2025-03-14	765.42	666.02	22.64	220700	Upward Expansion	76	71
2025-03-07	746.26	661.57	20.66	214900	Upward Expansion	70	72
2025-02-28	745.31	657.05	20.22	206000	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-02-21	742.43	653.20	15.31	280300	Upward Expansion	75	60
2025-02-14	739.56	649.57	14.13	665100	Upward Expansion	79	57
2025-02-07	711.78	646.06	11.17	264400	Upward Expansion	68	48
2025-01-31	702.20	643.21	7.65	676700	Upward Expansion	64	48
2025-01-24	701.24	641.01	6.45	242100	Upward Expansion	66	57
2025-01-17	678.25	639.00	6.92	290000	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-01-10	700.28	637.11	8.51	481700	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-01-03	724.23	634.52	10.43	114800	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-12-27	713.69	631.28	7.83	828500	Upward Expansion	90	94
2024-12-20	727.10	628.19	14.34	1346700	Upward Expansion	93	87
2024-12-13	638.94	624.52	-1.39	237600	Balance	29	37
2024-12-06	638.03	623.73	-0.77	238500	Balance	18	20
2024-11-29	622.58	623.01	-1.25	139100	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2024-11-22	620.76	623.64	-2.04	117900	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2024-11-15	618.95	623.86	-3.51	107200	Downward Expansion	-51	42
2024-11-08	613.49	623.76	-6.70	128100	Downward Expansion	-54	50
2024-11-01	612.58	624.07	-3.72	306000	Downward Expansion	-53	46
2024-10-25	600.77	624.76	-5.63	244200	Balance	-64	46
2024-10-18	618.04	626.40	-6.06	128100	Balance	-49	26
2024-10-11	616.22	627.85	-8.18	202000	Balance	-51	25
2024-10-04	622.58	628.76	-5.22	113200	Balance	-44	24
2024-09-27	625.31	629.19	-8.01	128100	Balance	-43	26
2024-09-20	627.13	629.43	-2.94	95600	Balance	-41	23
2024-09-13	618.04	629.94	-1.52	148500	Balance	-47	22
2024-09-06	613.49	630.55	-1.84	146000	Balance	-49	19
2024-08-30	629.85	631.19	-5.24	106000	Balance	5	3
2024-08-23	646.21	632.43	-2.23	112800	Balance	3	2
2024-08-16	631.67	631.88	-3.80	89500	Balance	-25	13
2024-08-09	610.77	630.04	0.94	452500	Balance	-43	20
2024-08-02	629.85	629.16	1.53	713300	Balance	16	9
2024-07-26	633.49	627.85	-2.61	535900	Balance	36	24
2024-07-19	634.40	626.52	-8.31	117700	Balance	37	24
2024-07-12	626.22	625.26	-12.09	174200	Balance	20	15
2024-07-05	636.22	624.09	-10.24	158700	Balance	30	20
2024-06-28	640.76	623.33	-6.69	294600	Balance	42	21
2024-06-21	621.67	623.12	-7.18	563600	Balance	-0	4
2024-06-14	622.58	623.35	-7.62	277800	Balance	-10	10
2024-06-07	627.13	623.30	-6.65	134800	Balance	-11	19
2024-05-31	620.76	623.32	-7.20	170500	Balance	-13	28
2024-05-24	617.13	623.72	-8.23	140300	Balance	-16	23
2024-05-17	615.31	624.18	-9.00	220700	Balance	-18	18
2024-05-10	616.22	623.82	-7.73	492400	Balance	1	9
2024-05-03	641.67	623.25	-4.26	125600	Upward Expansion	33	21
2024-04-26	627.13	621.98	-5.90	387900	Upward Expansion	23	20
2024-04-19	616.22	621.17	-5.65	322900	Upward Expansion	19	14
2024-04-12	622.58	620.10	-10.83	228900	Upward Expansion	34	20
2024-04-05	633.49	619.35	-8.34	297600	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-03-29	649.85	617.91	-9.47	318400	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-03-22	661.66	615.74	-9.28	270900	Upward Expansion	67	41
2024-03-15	643.49	612.72	-7.10	197700	Upward Expansion	58	35
2024-03-08	635.31	609.97	-10.83	472000	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-03-01	632.58	607.67	-11.99	418300	Upward Expansion	56	47
2024-02-23	642.58	605.02	-9.05	319100	Upward Expansion	60	67
2024-02-16	636.22	602.04	-8.81	447000	Upward Expansion	55	51
2024-02-09	632.58	599.15	-5.65	426900	Upward Expansion	52	42
2024-02-02	667.12	596.23	1.37	802000	Deceleration	61	38
2024-01-26	629.85	592.16	-3.23	998600	Deceleration	27	16
2024-01-19	576.23	589.28	-12.11	301900	Deceleration	-33	43
2024-01-12	584.41	588.24	-10.20	353300	Deceleration	-8	23
2024-01-05	590.77	587.08	-3.54	201300	Deceleration	-1	21
2023-12-29	593.50	585.58	-3.56	582700	Deceleration	14	21
2023-12-22	596.50	583.79	-2.46	426100	Deceleration	25	19
2023-12-15	591.18	582.14	-2.97	505400	Upward Expansion	31	20
2023-12-08	613.34	580.66	2.51	349600	Upward Expansion	57	40
2023-12-01	634.61	579.04	2.47	181700	Upward Expansion	68	52
2023-11-24	628.40	576.23	0.85	167700	Upward Expansion	65	53
2023-11-17	621.31	573.66	-0.23	306000	Upward Expansion	65	60
2023-11-10	627.52	571.09	3.85	306300	Upward Expansion	71	72
2023-11-03	632.84	568.04	6.79	455300	Upward Expansion	80	68
2023-10-27	631.06	564.56	9.81	296200	Upward Expansion	84	64
2023-10-20	604.47	561.28	4.39	167600	Upward Expansion	68	56
2023-10-13	599.15	558.68	0.04	162000	Upward Expansion	64	55
2023-10-06	603.59	556.52	4.90	230100	Upward Expansion	73	62

Price vs TrendAbove+2.2%

Trend directionRising+0.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+34.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.5%

Price momentumPositive+1.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.27×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

79 / ±100

+42.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

86 /100

+39.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2009 Directional State ↗ 2009 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up82

Upward Expansion95

Deceleration42

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 11%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	+0.7%
Balance	2026-05-15	2026-08-28	Established	+1.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-05-08	Developing	-2.8%
Deceleration	2026-01-16	2026-02-20	Developing	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-01-09	Established	+16.0%
Deceleration	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	+3.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-07-11	Extended	+16.6%
Balance	2024-12-06	2024-12-13	New	+0.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-11-29	Developing	+1.6%
Balance	2024-05-10	2024-10-25	Established	-2.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-09	2024-05-03	Established	+1.4%
Deceleration	2023-12-22	2024-02-02	Developing	+11.8%
Upward Expansion	2023-08-04	2023-12-15	Established	+6.9%
Deceleration	2023-06-16	2023-07-28	Developing	+0.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing38

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution81

Stage 4 · Declining41

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 33/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.78
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +1.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -23.2%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 95th percentile41 in cohort

Test 2009 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.21×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.27×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2009 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 1,107.60rising

Slow Activity JPY 1,089.81rising

Trend Reference JPY 1,088.73+2.2% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 828.31+34.4% close margin

Structural low JPY 1,067.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +0.9%

Annualized volatility +4.9%

From structural high -0.8%

From structural low +13.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	1	-0.8%-0.8% to -0.8%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-7.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	+0.3%+0.3% to +0.3%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-13.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	+14.5%+14.5% to +14.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+7.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+13.8%+13.8% to +13.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-17.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2009 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map