Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

RAW Stage Analysis

Raiffeisen Bank International AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 58.10Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 50−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 42/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 70/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +110.5%EUR 27.60 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	58.10	52.05	27.16	18346	Upward Expansion	50	42
2026-09-25	64.65	51.31	42.12	16963	Upward Expansion	70	65
2026-09-18	61.15	50.49	36.97	40082	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-09-11	66.50	49.84	49.45	15956	Upward Expansion	86	74
2026-09-04	64.25	48.95	43.97	23134	Upward Expansion	81	81
2026-08-28	62.45	48.15	39.23	1730	Upward Expansion	74	89
2026-08-21	61.05	47.45	40.30	1867	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-08-14	62.35	46.67	43.51	1967	Upward Expansion	83	90
2026-08-07	62.70	45.79	46.89	6167	Upward Expansion	91	76
2026-07-31	59.35	44.91	44.82	8287	Upward Expansion	87	75
2026-07-24	56.65	44.15	43.38	6026	Upward Expansion	80	79
2026-07-17	52.85	43.47	37.35	4364	Upward Expansion	67	86
2026-07-10	54.70	42.91	42.82	1395	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-07-03	55.95	42.28	44.19	1226	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-06-26	55.25	41.54	50.95	2625	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-06-19	54.10	40.82	48.27	1352	Upward Expansion	88	91
2026-06-12	49.92	40.08	40.91	6154	Upward Expansion	75	78
2026-06-05	49.52	39.45	40.95	3340	Upward Expansion	76	68
2026-05-29	49.16	38.81	39.75	16343	Upward Expansion	78	62
2026-05-22	46.72	38.20	35.61	14309	Upward Expansion	70	70
2026-05-15	45.92	37.60	40.05	19471	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-05-08	46.08	37.04	39.97	36061	Upward Expansion	69	82
2026-05-01	46.46	36.44	43.16	24528	Upward Expansion	75	83
2026-04-24	43.82	35.89	37.74	40562	Upward Expansion	64	72
2026-04-17	46.52	35.38	44.55	74455	Deceleration	76	61
2026-04-10	42.57	34.75	39.10	79838	Deceleration	53	24
2026-04-03	36.33	34.28	23.47	49325	Deceleration	8	18
2026-03-27	35.33	33.97	25.85	67708	Deceleration	15	24
2026-03-20	35.31	33.71	26.38	102398	Deceleration	22	23
2026-03-13	35.87	33.51	23.60	98671	Upward Expansion	40	24
2026-03-06	35.73	33.33	23.30	115659	Upward Expansion	49	39
2026-02-27	40.17	33.10	30.25	24322	Upward Expansion	66	61
2026-02-20	41.48	32.56	35.78	33525	Upward Expansion	75	80
2026-02-13	39.79	31.97	33.37	52038	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-02-06	40.50	31.45	38.11	33325	Upward Expansion	77	67
2026-01-30	41.25	30.91	43.22	86761	Upward Expansion	88	69
2026-01-23	37.78	30.37	30.86	86415	Upward Expansion	75	60
2026-01-16	35.89	29.93	23.59	56083	Upward Expansion	65	60
2026-01-09	36.37	29.52	26.47	33971	Upward Expansion	69	77
2026-01-02	36.39	29.12	31.45	36141	Upward Expansion	72	84
2025-12-26	36.37	28.77	33.82	26529	Upward Expansion	76	85
2025-12-19	36.18	28.43	34.79	105482	Upward Expansion	80	87
2025-12-12	35.77	28.07	35.21	110519	Upward Expansion	85	86
2025-12-05	33.69	27.72	29.46	103056	Upward Expansion	78	82
2025-11-28	33.75	27.41	31.92	153088	Upward Expansion	83	81
2025-11-21	31.82	27.05	29.67	106277	Upward Expansion	73	71
2025-11-14	31.07	26.74	23.60	123046	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-11-07	30.06	26.39	22.15	57141	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-10-31	30.95	26.06	24.61	136354	Upward Expansion	72	46
2025-10-24	28.85	25.71	15.84	60008	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-10-17	29.02	25.52	19.26	83585	Upward Expansion	61	43
2025-10-10	28.19	25.34	14.65	72957	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-10-03	29.98	25.20	21.94	93214	Upward Expansion	74	50
2025-09-26	28.36	25.02	19.34	54222	Upward Expansion	51	37
2025-09-19	27.57	24.87	17.27	58758	Upward Expansion	55	38
2025-09-12	28.46	24.70	21.40	56723	Upward Expansion	66	52
2025-09-05	27.24	24.51	17.54	60166	Upward Expansion	62	75
2025-08-29	27.34	24.33	17.15	76151	Upward Expansion	63	81
2025-08-22	29.39	24.09	24.19	132076	Upward Expansion	76	88
2025-08-15	30.35	23.76	29.17	186501	Upward Expansion	86	84
2025-08-08	28.96	23.40	25.21	257882	Deceleration	79	49
2025-08-01	24.00	23.04	7.79	176230	Deceleration	28	15
2025-07-25	23.69	22.83	3.25	133318	Deceleration	30	15
2025-07-18	24.25	22.63	5.60	78883	Deceleration	37	22
2025-07-11	24.33	22.43	6.32	103311	Deceleration	38	21
2025-07-04	24.87	22.24	11.15	113993	Deceleration	41	23
2025-06-27	24.72	22.01	9.75	92917	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-06-20	23.54	21.76	8.04	68981	Upward Expansion	57	39
2025-06-13	24.35	21.53	11.35	142903	Upward Expansion	63	61
2025-06-06	26.09	21.27	15.97	93165	Upward Expansion	72	80
2025-05-30	25.91	20.96	17.24	63969	Upward Expansion	73	79
2025-05-23	25.53	20.62	17.89	111298	Upward Expansion	72	74
2025-05-16	25.35	20.33	16.97	218974	Upward Expansion	72	65
2025-05-09	24.18	20.05	13.28	101638	Deceleration	63	37
2025-05-02	23.17	19.80	10.89	58275	Deceleration	41	20
2025-04-25	22.27	19.57	10.93	137911	Deceleration	26	24
2025-04-18	20.80	19.38	8.87	62063	Deceleration	24	24
2025-04-11	20.20	19.24	10.26	454056	Deceleration	28	21
2025-04-04	20.16	19.09	8.78	293584	Upward Expansion	40	32
2025-03-28	23.41	18.94	16.26	82677	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-03-21	23.42	18.71	14.62	38080	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-03-14	24.20	18.46	18.40	96987	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-03-07	24.42	18.18	19.73	184579	Upward Expansion	82	88
2025-02-28	23.77	17.87	19.18	84783	Upward Expansion	85	92
2025-02-21	22.48	17.59	14.25	62335	Upward Expansion	78	91
2025-02-14	22.96	17.38	15.63	76288	Upward Expansion	91	95
2025-02-07	21.65	17.15	12.70	104217	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-01-31	20.21	16.96	5.45	34763	Upward Expansion	79	82
2025-01-24	19.66	16.82	4.10	26243	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-01-17	19.38	16.66	4.82	23488	Upward Expansion	77	51
2025-01-10	18.26	16.53	1.97	20873	Upward Expansion	64	43
2025-01-03	17.62	16.40	-0.31	9100	Upward Expansion	59	53
2024-12-27	17.83	16.34	0.33	4639	Upward Expansion	63	71
2024-12-20	18.04	16.26	1.88	24057	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-12-13	18.68	16.19	2.66	81006	Upward Expansion	80	74
2024-12-06	18.16	16.11	0.09	37026	Upward Expansion	73	59
2024-11-29	17.01	16.05	-2.44	42203	Upward Expansion	56	34
2024-11-22	16.63	16.00	-2.99	27972	Upward Expansion	37	17
2024-11-15	16.50	16.00	-3.08	15819	Upward Expansion	37	18
2024-11-08	17.05	15.98	0.19	59861	Upward Expansion	60	31
2024-11-01	15.48	15.96	-9.09	28650	Upward Expansion	25	19
2024-10-25	16.83	15.99	-2.18	7787	Upward Expansion	59	51
2024-10-18	16.96	15.95	-2.17	14747	Upward Expansion	61	56
2024-10-11	16.90	15.90	-0.81	17754	Balance	61	54
2024-10-04	16.10	15.88	-3.96	10094	Balance	46	37
2024-09-27	16.64	15.91	-2.24	6097	Balance	30	28
2024-09-20	16.60	15.93	1.75	31325	Balance	22	24
2024-09-13	15.68	15.94	-3.37	22162	Balance	-16	11
2024-09-06	15.50	15.99	-2.01	39369	Balance	-19	14
2024-08-30	16.53	16.04	1.52	25005	Balance	3	7
2024-08-23	16.06	16.03	0.50	6616	Balance	-20	12
2024-08-16	15.86	16.07	1.42	17240	Balance	-36	19
2024-08-09	15.03	16.10	-0.21	60006	Balance	-52	22
2024-08-02	15.37	16.15	2.69	66385	Balance	-32	19
2024-07-26	16.09	16.17	3.48	22296	Balance	-17	19
2024-07-19	16.23	16.17	6.19	47555	Balance	-19	15
2024-07-12	16.04	16.17	2.04	14011	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2024-07-05	15.88	16.10	2.77	22992	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2024-06-28	14.97	16.01	-1.61	30182	Rotation Down	-62	63
2024-06-21	15.27	15.96	1.00	31185	Rotation Down	-29	51
2024-06-14	14.55	15.88	-2.66	24388	Balance	-43	50
2024-06-07	15.61	15.83	1.58	16630	Balance	-24	20
2024-05-31	15.47	15.73	1.33	14499	Deceleration	3	6
2024-05-24	15.88	15.62	3.27	23375	Deceleration	10	7
2024-05-17	16.35	15.46	6.57	16509	Deceleration	30	15
2024-05-10	16.33	15.27	6.38	65171	Deceleration	28	13
2024-05-03	15.51	15.09	5.79	26158	Deceleration	9	8
2024-04-26	16.75	14.94	13.62	28060	Deceleration	40	23
2024-04-19	15.87	14.75	10.79	43028	Deceleration	19	11
2024-04-12	16.56	14.58	14.78	64874	Deceleration	24	19
2024-04-05	16.16	14.38	11.02	17285	Deceleration	28	24
2024-03-29	15.84	14.20	7.32	15240	Deceleration	33	23
2024-03-22	15.25	14.03	5.20	77686	Upward Expansion	39	29
2024-03-15	16.31	13.87	14.66	37554	Upward Expansion	52	47
2024-03-08	17.18	13.67	21.94	24862	Upward Expansion	66	63
2024-03-01	17.22	13.47	23.23	35526	Upward Expansion	71	65
2024-02-23	16.81	13.27	22.93	34147	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-02-16	17.22	13.11	28.54	15654	Upward Expansion	76	70
2024-02-09	16.99	12.94	28.69	27488	Upward Expansion	74	70
2024-02-02	16.28	12.78	23.83	19121	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-01-26	17.29	12.63	31.67	29260	Upward Expansion	86	87
2024-01-19	16.65	12.44	30.25	46307	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-01-12	16.62	12.26	29.05	35036	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-01-05	15.94	12.09	24.88	35471	Upward Expansion	82	93
2023-12-29	16.09	11.93	24.95	24414	Upward Expansion	94	98
2023-12-22	16.08	11.77	25.40	184462	Upward Expansion	98	98
2023-12-15	14.04	11.62	9.37	89026	Upward Expansion	87	93
2023-12-08	13.34	11.55	3.77	17911	Upward Expansion	77	91
2023-12-01	13.28	11.49	5.50	60688	Upward Expansion	79	92
2023-11-24	13.01	11.42	5.67	35168	Rotation Up	77	88
2023-11-17	12.94	11.37	5.75	40735	Rotation Up	56	76
2023-11-10	12.52	11.32	6.89	73949	Balance	41	54
2023-11-03	12.25	11.29	4.77	45742	Balance	35	26
2023-10-27	11.11	11.27	-1.97	39666	Downward Expansion	-33	16
2023-10-20	10.62	11.29	-7.24	16778	Downward Expansion	-42	21
2023-10-13	11.02	11.28	-6.48	33258	Downward Expansion	-34	18

Price vs TrendAbove+11.6%

Trend directionRising+17.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+110.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-27.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+27.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-17.0%

Price momentumPositive+59.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.15×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

50 / ±100

-31.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

42 /100

-39.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RAW Directional State ↗ RAW Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance21

Rotation Up45

Upward Expansion70

Deceleration63

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 67%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 3%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-10-02	Established	+32.6%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+31.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2026-03-13	Extended	+18.2%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	+16.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	-2.5%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-05-09	Developing	+19.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-18	2025-04-04	Established	+18.9%
Balance	2024-07-19	2024-10-11	Established	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-07-12	New	+1.0%
Rotation Down	2024-06-21	2024-06-28	New	-2.0%
Balance	2024-06-07	2024-06-14	New	-6.8%
Deceleration	2024-03-29	2024-05-31	Developing	-2.4%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-03-22	Established	+14.9%
Rotation Up	2023-11-17	2023-11-24	New	+0.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing0

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution73

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: 27.16
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +59.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +51.0%
Financial Services regime cohort: 19th percentile27 in cohort

Test RAW trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.91×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.15×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RAW Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 61.99falling

Slow Activity EUR 56.99rising

Trend Reference EUR 52.05+11.6% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 27.60+110.5% close margin

Structural low EUR 35.89shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.7%

Annualized volatility +39.5%

From structural high -13.1%

From structural low +109.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	38	+5.9%-17.4% to +21.2%	+60.5%	+60.5%	+3.6%	+81.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	+15.4%-18.6% to +35.8%	+76.9%	+76.9%	+7.9%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+22.6%-0.5% to +47.8%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+18.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+12.6%-28.5% to +98.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RAW Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map