Weekly structural research · SHH · Consumer Cyclical

600785 Stage Analysis

Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 10.65Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -7−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 7/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.8%CNY 9.70 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	10.65	10.91	0.32	47938213	Balance	-7	7
2026-09-25	10.54	11.01	-1.62	121055071	Balance	-8	14
2026-09-18	10.32	11.15	-4.11	118024947	Balance	-4	23
2026-09-11	10.24	11.30	-4.33	287624587	Rotation Up	-5	25
2026-09-04	11.40	11.49	5.53	58528509	Rotation Up	-4	26
2026-08-28	12.42	11.61	14.78	79388283	Rotation Up	-4	18
2026-08-21	9.74	11.73	-8.46	5098904	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-08-14	8.74	11.85	-18.26	7073559	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2026-08-07	8.71	11.89	-18.94	7266280	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-07-31	8.37	11.92	-20.03	15457720	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2026-07-24	7.72	11.97	-25.99	12214845	Downward Expansion	-88	91
2026-07-17	8.60	12.06	-16.67	50928544	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2026-07-10	9.51	12.08	-13.27	7701260	Downward Expansion	-77	77
2026-07-03	10.34	12.08	-6.83	6459040	Rotation Down	-66	71
2026-06-26	10.00	12.06	-9.43	56361465	Rotation Down	-49	66
2026-06-19	10.74	12.03	-4.13	41033628	Rotation Down	-41	60
2026-06-12	10.73	12.00	-2.65	51572222	Rotation Down	-43	57
2026-06-05	10.85	11.96	-1.39	42723800	Deceleration	-35	47
2026-05-29	11.54	11.91	4.03	52709255	Deceleration	-6	19
2026-05-22	11.69	11.84	4.55	89075273	Deceleration	-2	11
2026-05-15	12.26	11.76	9.28	52013514	Deceleration	17	17
2026-05-08	12.78	11.65	13.06	44249082	Deceleration	20	12
2026-05-01	12.28	11.53	10.86	44921507	Deceleration	9	12
2026-04-24	11.82	11.43	7.83	43555038	Deceleration	4	13
2026-04-17	12.60	11.35	15.72	57672621	Deceleration	12	15
2026-04-10	12.25	11.28	14.74	43966175	Deceleration	21	21
2026-04-03	11.72	11.18	13.32	27033442	Deceleration	20	21
2026-03-27	12.40	11.09	19.45	43421358	Deceleration	33	24
2026-03-20	12.56	10.99	20.24	38692465	Deceleration	40	26
2026-03-13	13.67	10.87	27.10	51623240	Upward Expansion	46	37
2026-03-06	13.78	10.71	28.12	68221658	Upward Expansion	61	52
2026-02-27	14.85	10.54	37.68	97035551	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-02-13	14.58	10.33	39.14	195634695	Upward Expansion	68	86
2026-02-06	15.98	10.12	54.37	277549559	Upward Expansion	81	93
2026-01-30	15.00	9.87	44.73	232609463	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-01-23	16.25	9.65	57.69	290259532	Upward Expansion	97	98
2026-01-16	13.32	9.38	31.99	168771904	Upward Expansion	90	82
2026-01-09	9.92	9.20	-1.42	64288993	Upward Expansion	53	45
2026-01-02	9.59	9.14	-0.97	32229261	Upward Expansion	48	34
2025-12-26	9.89	9.10	2.10	80443027	Upward Expansion	51	40
2025-12-19	10.36	9.05	8.76	114756005	Deceleration	66	42
2025-12-12	9.16	8.97	-3.63	92450684	Deceleration	29	13
2025-12-05	9.48	8.94	-0.98	51576727	Deceleration	47	25
2025-11-28	9.84	8.91	3.09	58667726	Deceleration	56	33
2025-11-21	9.11	8.86	-3.16	44008862	Deceleration	46	25
2025-11-14	9.88	8.85	1.04	85357512	Deceleration	59	37
2025-11-07	9.50	8.83	-2.88	45433501	Deceleration	50	26
2025-10-31	9.40	8.80	-2.92	40622631	Deceleration	36	18
2025-10-24	9.43	8.75	-2.49	52987207	Deceleration	36	16
2025-10-17	9.18	8.70	-2.22	64101246	Deceleration	32	18
2025-10-10	9.03	8.68	-5.10	24122011	Upward Expansion	36	18
2025-10-03	9.18	8.66	-2.99	20987003	Upward Expansion	53	36
2025-09-26	9.09	8.62	-2.53	95940786	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-09-19	9.56	8.59	2.79	184892312	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-09-12	10.54	8.54	12.07	183828067	Upward Expansion	87	78
2025-09-05	9.19	8.46	-0.45	87471267	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-08-29	9.04	8.42	-3.19	101005184	Upward Expansion	61	64
2025-08-22	9.36	8.37	1.19	110276393	Upward Expansion	79	72
2025-08-15	8.84	8.30	-0.92	61995095	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-08-08	8.97	8.26	2.23	121549983	Upward Expansion	72	61
2025-08-01	8.58	8.20	-0.08	37232153	Balance	57	45
2025-07-25	8.55	8.20	-1.37	35131515	Balance	45	30
2025-07-18	8.41	8.22	-1.30	35244309	Balance	35	19
2025-07-11	8.42	8.22	-0.94	35433140	Balance	30	13
2025-07-04	8.37	8.26	-0.87	42111618	Balance	-4	7
2025-06-27	8.23	8.26	-1.73	26735111	Balance	-11	15
2025-06-20	7.87	8.25	-4.81	23144240	Balance	-20	20
2025-06-13	8.18	8.24	-2.20	32099480	Balance	-10	10
2025-06-06	8.35	8.23	-0.99	27203552	Balance	23	14
2025-05-30	8.24	8.22	-1.70	28988342	Balance	22	14
2025-05-23	8.05	8.21	-4.54	52808981	Balance	20	12
2025-05-16	8.44	8.19	-1.15	43886643	Upward Expansion	45	22
2025-05-09	8.52	8.14	-0.03	56050407	Upward Expansion	48	39
2025-05-02	8.42	8.08	0.13	54898200	Upward Expansion	48	47
2025-04-25	8.63	8.06	0.94	157611712	Upward Expansion	50	48
2025-04-18	9.30	8.01	8.14	196626232	Balance	69	49
2025-04-11	8.63	7.91	0.48	189235355	Balance	54	28
2025-04-04	8.02	7.83	-10.54	37401831	Balance	41	21
2025-03-28	7.85	7.77	-13.93	80931473	Balance	39	22
2025-03-21	8.53	7.72	-8.03	90423172	Balance	56	37
2025-03-14	8.45	7.65	-11.53	70703815	Balance	45	25
2025-03-07	7.95	7.60	-16.60	68104934	Balance	33	17
2025-02-28	8.11	7.56	-14.54	120990450	Balance	34	19
2025-02-21	8.09	7.53	-16.98	94010347	Balance	30	14
2025-02-14	8.17	7.48	-16.22	208726998	Balance	18	10
2025-02-07	8.02	7.50	-17.38	44629489	Balance	10	14
2025-01-31	7.44	7.52	-22.73	9189180	Balance	4	18
2025-01-24	7.48	7.58	-22.99	60604532	Balance	15	18
2025-01-17	7.59	7.64	-22.25	89571530	Rotation Up	26	16
2025-01-10	7.19	7.70	-25.27	116878217	Rotation Up	25	17
2025-01-03	8.57	7.79	-12.73	175622850	Rotation Up	32	38
2024-12-27	9.17	7.83	-12.21	174222632	Rotation Up	41	49
2024-12-20	8.37	7.85	-19.38	198457432	Rotation Up	31	41
2024-12-13	9.53	7.90	-9.38	185152543	Rotation Up	57	55
2024-12-06	8.28	7.93	-21.75	103283579	Balance	29	28
2024-11-29	8.17	8.01	-21.37	60278103	Balance	11	24
2024-11-22	7.55	8.16	-26.34	49123044	Balance	-1	22
2024-11-15	7.69	8.34	-26.79	68844511	Balance	-2	22
2024-11-08	8.20	8.52	-25.02	146276176	Balance	13	24
2024-11-01	7.99	8.68	-23.19	122036308	Downward Expansion	-3	13
2024-10-25	7.23	8.85	-31.30	56182763	Downward Expansion	-36	28
2024-10-18	6.99	9.04	-33.11	42587514	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2024-10-11	6.90	9.26	-33.51	85128581	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2024-10-04	7.68	9.45	-29.03	33427601	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2024-09-27	7.11	9.60	-29.32	52498043	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2024-09-20	6.27	9.76	-30.00	30990972	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2024-09-13	6.22	9.94	-30.07	55579200	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2024-09-06	6.38	10.09	-30.27	52428188	Downward Expansion	-74	72
2024-08-30	6.40	10.21	-32.18	45678013	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2024-08-23	6.34	10.34	-33.37	29556142	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2024-08-16	6.77	10.47	-29.80	32861400	Downward Expansion	-79	93
2024-08-09	6.97	10.58	-27.62	54699666	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2024-08-02	7.12	10.68	-27.50	80021045	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2024-07-26	6.64	10.78	-32.29	73835364	Downward Expansion	-97	97
2024-07-19	8.64	10.88	-15.02	20004322	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2024-07-12	8.73	10.93	-13.79	23104107	Downward Expansion	-79	82
2024-07-05	9.25	10.95	-7.94	23931692	Rotation Down	-71	74
2024-06-28	9.22	10.97	-8.65	13497726	Rotation Down	-48	67
2024-06-21	9.49	10.99	-6.91	17279382	Rotation Down	-46	69
2024-06-14	9.70	10.99	-5.97	14920710	Rotation Down	-34	66
2024-06-07	9.89	10.97	-4.88	35519609	Rotation Down	-31	65
2024-05-31	9.79	10.95	-6.94	22692180	Rotation Down	-35	59
2024-05-24	9.93	10.93	-5.88	28949755	Deceleration	-35	40
2024-05-17	10.40	10.89	-3.68	40898235	Deceleration	3	17
2024-05-10	10.59	10.87	-2.07	74217149	Upward Expansion	18	14
2024-05-03	12.66	10.84	18.77	12092652	Upward Expansion	46	34
2024-04-26	13.06	10.74	23.58	92728701	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-04-19	12.97	10.63	24.43	68762877	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-04-12	13.08	10.53	28.04	35689862	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-04-05	13.10	10.41	26.75	20946702	Upward Expansion	68	71
2024-03-29	13.02	10.27	27.87	43429367	Upward Expansion	69	76
2024-03-22	13.46	10.16	32.62	84536124	Upward Expansion	81	82
2024-03-15	12.75	10.04	26.01	42245593	Upward Expansion	77	79
2024-03-08	12.02	9.96	19.59	35684083	Upward Expansion	72	73
2024-03-01	11.85	9.90	18.95	45978379	Upward Expansion	74	64
2024-02-23	11.64	9.85	18.01	102690543	Upward Expansion	75	54
2024-02-09	10.94	9.78	16.53	57306574	Upward Expansion	69	40
2024-02-02	9.78	9.72	9.46	37819629	Upward Expansion	52	30
2024-01-26	10.40	9.70	9.20	68746959	Upward Expansion	63	50
2024-01-19	10.25	9.67	10.45	47039083	Upward Expansion	62	50
2024-01-12	10.16	9.65	7.39	28133001	Rotation Up	59	41
2024-01-05	9.98	9.68	3.45	30205447	Rotation Up	19	29
2023-12-29	10.02	9.71	2.38	15596843	Downward Expansion	21	25
2023-12-22	9.62	9.74	0.20	17207694	Downward Expansion	11	14
2023-12-15	10.12	9.80	4.40	23684231	Downward Expansion	24	23
2023-12-08	9.52	9.86	-2.79	19464772	Downward Expansion	-25	17
2023-12-01	9.77	9.94	-2.17	14489757	Downward Expansion	-23	14
2023-11-24	9.75	10.00	-2.69	25896938	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2023-11-17	9.48	10.06	-5.88	34422678	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2023-11-10	9.16	10.10	-8.81	12705520	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2023-11-03	9.21	10.16	-8.14	14181790	Downward Expansion	-59	56
2023-10-27	9.30	10.23	-7.03	20186128	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2023-10-20	8.78	10.28	-11.11	20142077	Downward Expansion	-70	42
2023-10-13	9.58	10.35	-6.32	14969924	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2023-09-29	9.82	10.40	-4.70	11008148	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2023-09-22	9.62	10.47	-7.31	17622772	Downward Expansion	-50	27

Price vs TrendBelow-2.3%

Trend directionFalling-8.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.8%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.2%

Price momentumNegative-9.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-7 / ±100

-2.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

7 /100

-18.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

600785 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance57

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion30

Deceleration43

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+3.2%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-11	New	-17.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-08-21	Developing	+2.4%
Rotation Down	2026-06-12	2026-07-03	New	-3.7%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-06-05	Developing	-13.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-03-13	Developing	+38.2%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-12-19	Developing	+12.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-10-10	Developing	+0.6%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-08-01	Developing	+6.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	-2.2%
Balance	2025-01-24	2025-04-18	Established	+24.3%
Rotation Up	2024-12-13	2025-01-17	Developing	-20.3%
Balance	2024-11-08	2024-12-06	Developing	+1.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-12	2024-11-01	Established	-8.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing18

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining82

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.32
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -9.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 60th percentile81 in cohort

Test 600785 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 600785 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 10.55falling

Slow Activity CNY 10.37falling

Trend Reference CNY 10.91-2.3% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 9.70+9.8% close margin

Structural low CNY 7.70shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +11.6%

Annualized volatility +54.9%

From structural high -45.8%

From structural low +38.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+1.6%-15.6% to +9.0%	+61.1%	+61.1%	+1.1%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+6.2%-12.5% to +23.1%	+57.1%	+57.1%	+2.2%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+13.0%-12.8% to +25.5%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+7.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+15.9%-11.1% to +23.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

600785 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map