Weekly structural research · HKG · Real Estate

9983 Stage Analysis

Central China New Life Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close HKD 0.244Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -81−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 74/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -72.1%HKD 0.8754 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.244	0.3555	-46.95	710000	Downward Expansion	-81	74
2026-09-25	0.275	0.3637	-42.96	4890000	Downward Expansion	-71	64
2026-09-18	0.285	0.3712	-42.93	2023000	Downward Expansion	-68	72
2026-09-11	0.28	0.3787	-45.39	1090000	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2026-09-04	0.30	0.3863	-44.80	1961000	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2026-08-28	0.29	0.3937	-47.80	1044000	Downward Expansion	-75	53
2026-08-21	0.315	0.4017	-45.60	143000	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2026-08-14	0.36	0.4075	-37.26	239000	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2026-08-07	0.315	0.4118	-47.52	19000	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-07-31	0.30	0.4187	-51.76	988000	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2026-07-24	0.32	0.4287	-48.08	263000	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2026-07-17	0.325	0.4377	-47.70	726000	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2026-07-10	0.33	0.4472	-47.31	461000	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2026-07-03	0.365	0.4572	-41.05	940000	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2026-06-26	0.35	0.4683	-43.01	158000	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2026-06-19	0.34	0.4853	-48.59	2757000	Downward Expansion	-63	35
2026-06-12	0.40	0.504	-42.69	998000	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2026-06-05	0.45	0.521	-37.51	1168000	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2026-05-29	0.40	0.5363	-45.97	1000000	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2026-05-22	0.42	0.5537	-45.42	1003000	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2026-05-15	0.475	0.5703	-40.33	12193948	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2026-05-08	0.36	0.5848	-56.38	2269000	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2026-05-01	0.34	0.6045	-58.72	1181000	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2026-04-24	0.345	0.6252	-59.46	4291000	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2026-04-17	0.365	0.6463	-58.34	1265000	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2026-04-10	0.36	0.6671	-59.28	1839000	Downward Expansion	-82	91
2026-04-03	0.375	0.6886	-57.09	1719000	Downward Expansion	-84	82
2026-03-27	0.36	0.7093	-59.20	7695000	Downward Expansion	-91	72
2026-03-20	0.51	0.7306	-43.93	2937000	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2026-03-13	0.51	0.7494	-45.18	2946000	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2026-03-06	0.49	0.7682	-48.67	3352000	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2026-02-27	0.50	0.7896	-49.92	1605000	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2026-02-20	0.51	0.8106	-49.02	133000	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2026-02-13	0.51	0.8314	-49.93	2156000	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-02-06	0.52	0.8515	-49.67	2156000	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-01-30	0.53	0.8706	-51.03	2494000	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-01-23	0.49	0.889	-54.38	3747000	Downward Expansion	-79	75
2026-01-16	0.49	0.9085	-55.27	4127000	Downward Expansion	-85	84
2026-01-09	0.52	0.9277	-52.18	2022000	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2026-01-02	0.60	0.9484	-45.94	3303000	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2025-12-26	0.59	0.9655	-46.57	1497000	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2025-12-19	0.61	0.9844	-45.29	10539939	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2025-12-12	0.63	1.00	-44.90	4521000	Downward Expansion	-97	98
2025-12-05	0.70	1.02	-39.87	7298000	Downward Expansion	-97	95
2025-11-28	0.86	1.03	-26.37	2897000	Downward Expansion	-81	70
2025-11-21	0.90	1.05	-21.76	2889000	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2025-11-14	0.91	1.05	-25.58	1898848	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2025-11-07	0.91	1.06	-25.38	1039000	Downward Expansion	-69	58
2025-10-31	0.92	1.06	-24.22	333000	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2025-10-24	0.92	1.06	-25.63	895264	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2025-10-17	0.91	1.07	-24.44	2275000	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2025-10-10	0.95	1.08	-24.89	1571000	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2025-10-03	0.96	1.08	-27.12	2146000	Downward Expansion	-74	77
2025-09-26	0.98	1.09	-23.34	2194000	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2025-09-19	0.987	1.08	-24.57	2001888	Rotation Down	-73	80
2025-09-12	1.01	1.08	-23.34	2809000	Rotation Down	-38	63
2025-09-05	0.9967	1.09	-21.93	2307000	Rotation Down	-43	59
2025-08-29	0.9967	1.09	-21.65	5231000	Balance	-32	41
2025-08-22	1.07	1.09	-17.21	3189000	Balance	9	9
2025-08-15	1.07	1.09	-17.45	2602000	Balance	21	13
2025-08-08	1.13	1.09	-12.07	1103000	Balance	40	30
2025-08-01	1.13	1.09	-11.27	1123000	Balance	37	20
2025-07-25	1.13	1.09	-14.78	2601000	Balance	33	14
2025-07-18	1.11	1.09	-14.87	1542000	Balance	15	11
2025-07-11	1.09	1.08	-14.38	1509000	Balance	10	14
2025-07-04	1.08	1.09	-14.65	1787000	Balance	21	16
2025-06-27	1.07	1.09	-17.16	3098000	Balance	20	15
2025-06-20	1.06	1.09	-15.72	2129000	Balance	25	13
2025-06-13	1.14	1.09	-11.36	1149000	Balance	39	20
2025-06-06	1.11	1.09	-13.60	2907000	Balance	48	25
2025-05-30	1.16	1.09	-8.64	1122000	Balance	52	37
2025-05-23	1.14	1.09	-11.14	359000	Balance	24	41
2025-05-16	1.17	1.09	-7.84	994000	Balance	25	37
2025-05-09	1.12	1.09	-9.41	1681000	Balance	9	26
2025-05-02	1.24	1.09	2.07	1988000	Balance	25	25
2025-04-25	1.13	1.10	-4.39	2035000	Balance	-19	12
2025-04-18	1.03	1.10	-10.18	877000	Balance	-44	24
2025-04-11	0.9931	1.10	-11.11	4411000	Balance	-39	16
2025-04-04	1.02	1.10	-16.14	3822000	Balance	-31	21
2025-03-28	1.09	1.11	-12.18	10942000	Balance	-13	16
2025-03-21	1.16	1.11	-7.84	2539000	Balance	-13	8
2025-03-14	1.14	1.10	-10.62	3221000	Downward Expansion	-35	31
2025-03-07	1.00	1.10	-22.54	3483000	Downward Expansion	-55	56
2025-02-28	0.8838	1.10	-28.36	9308000	Balance	-79	59
2025-02-21	1.02	1.10	-20.01	10843000	Balance	-57	27
2025-02-14	1.09	1.11	-11.48	660000	Rotation Down	-36	18
2025-02-07	1.09	1.10	-5.51	1473000	Rotation Down	-24	28
2025-01-31	1.06	1.10	-4.84	668000	Rotation Down	-28	44
2025-01-24	1.06	1.10	-4.43	569000	Rotation Down	-29	43
2025-01-17	1.01	1.10	-6.57	3560000	Balance	-41	42
2025-01-10	1.06	1.10	-0.09	617000	Balance	-23	20
2025-01-03	1.10	1.10	0.29	143000	Balance	7	6
2024-12-27	1.11	1.10	-0.77	97000	Balance	9	8
2024-12-20	1.10	1.09	-0.02	562570	Balance	8	9
2024-12-13	1.12	1.08	0.06	758000	Balance	9	12
2024-12-06	1.09	1.07	-2.06	555000	Balance	8	12
2024-11-29	1.09	1.06	-0.07	692000	Balance	18	15
2024-11-22	1.09	1.05	0.69	1003000	Balance	23	15
2024-11-15	1.12	1.04	1.56	587000	Upward Expansion	33	17
2024-11-08	1.14	1.03	-4.06	1399000	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-11-01	1.18	1.01	-0.19	517000	Upward Expansion	55	37
2024-10-25	1.17	0.9928	-3.09	2234000	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-10-18	1.19	0.9756	-2.83	990000	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-10-11	1.23	0.9678	-3.03	2044092	Upward Expansion	70	65
2024-10-04	1.28	0.9595	-6.89	7096000	Upward Expansion	83	65
2024-09-27	1.17	0.9503	-7.29	2446000	Upward Expansion	69	67
2024-09-20	1.11	0.9489	-1.21	352000	Upward Expansion	60	67
2024-09-13	1.09	0.9438	1.26	2092000	Upward Expansion	57	64
2024-09-06	1.13	0.9379	3.93	961000	Upward Expansion	70	71
2024-08-30	1.16	0.9317	2.73	2724403	Deceleration	69	41
2024-08-23	1.02	0.9255	-8.34	519000	Deceleration	37	22
2024-08-16	1.02	0.9241	-8.18	279000	Deceleration	39	25
2024-08-09	1.02	0.9222	-7.06	580000	Deceleration	41	26
2024-08-02	1.02	0.9225	-7.07	1168000	Rotation Up	43	27
2024-07-26	1.05	0.9229	-5.35	1195000	Rotation Up	59	36
2024-07-19	1.01	0.9239	-11.99	148000	Rotation Up	29	27
2024-07-12	1.01	0.9256	-17.04	340000	Rotation Up	34	41
2024-07-05	1.08	0.9266	-9.28	1171000	Rotation Up	41	62
2024-06-28	1.04	0.9244	-12.97	820000	Rotation Up	29	61
2024-06-21	1.04	0.9251	-15.88	517000	Rotation Up	27	41
2024-06-14	1.07	0.934	-14.02	490000	Downward Expansion	32	34
2024-06-07	1.09	0.9463	-14.66	3731000	Downward Expansion	15	21
2024-05-31	0.8256	0.9592	-35.25	774000	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2024-05-24	0.8044	0.9834	-39.56	2004000	Downward Expansion	-34	23
2024-05-17	0.8679	1.01	-38.79	2342000	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2024-05-10	0.7762	1.03	-44.37	755869	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-05-03	0.8397	1.06	-39.03	733000	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-04-26	0.7409	1.08	-44.31	954000	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-04-19	0.6492	1.11	-47.50	0	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-04-12	0.6492	1.14	-49.61	0	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2024-04-05	0.6492	1.17	-50.22	0	Downward Expansion	-83	82
2024-03-29	0.6492	1.19	-50.21	7681000	Downward Expansion	-84	56
2024-03-22	0.9597	1.22	-27.01	828000	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2024-03-15	0.9808	1.24	-26.94	457000	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2024-03-08	1.00	1.26	-24.28	811000	Downward Expansion	-44	32
2024-03-01	1.12	1.28	-17.00	1307000	Downward Expansion	-48	39
2024-02-23	0.9597	1.30	-29.95	1123000	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-02-16	0.9173	1.33	-32.02	149000	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2024-02-09	0.9456	1.36	-28.01	298000	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2024-02-02	0.9738	1.39	-25.50	759000	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2024-01-26	0.9738	1.41	-28.00	725951	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2024-01-19	0.9597	1.44	-26.72	915000	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2024-01-12	1.02	1.47	-27.00	2077000	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2024-01-05	1.03	1.50	-28.36	1032000	Downward Expansion	-71	81
2023-12-29	1.08	1.53	-27.74	1005000	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2023-12-22	1.06	1.55	-26.64	1441000	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2023-12-15	1.04	1.58	-30.75	1050000	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2023-12-08	1.02	1.60	-31.23	1403000	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2023-12-01	1.07	1.63	-30.99	4596000	Downward Expansion	-90	86
2023-11-24	1.31	1.65	-19.90	1574000	Downward Expansion	-73	63
2023-11-17	1.43	1.67	-12.52	646000	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2023-11-10	1.48	1.68	-8.90	391101	Downward Expansion	-53	30
2023-11-03	1.55	1.69	-7.42	589100	Downward Expansion	-44	24
2023-10-27	1.52	1.69	-7.93	555000	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2023-10-20	1.56	1.70	-4.75	1015000	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2023-10-13	1.55	1.70	-8.71	892000	Downward Expansion	-33	20

Price vs TrendBelow-31.4%

Trend directionFalling-17.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-72.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-46.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.9%

Price momentumNegative-34.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.41×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-81 / ±100

-15.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

74 /100

+27.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

9983 Directional State ↗ 9983 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration41

Rotation Down76

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 7%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 59%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-09-26	2026-10-02	Extended	-75.1%
Rotation Down	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-1.0%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-08-29	Established	-13.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-03-14	New	+13.6%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	-13.4%
Rotation Down	2025-01-24	2025-02-14	New	+3.4%
Balance	2024-11-22	2025-01-17	Developing	-7.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-06	2024-11-15	Developing	-1.1%
Deceleration	2024-08-09	2024-08-30	New	+14.0%
Rotation Up	2024-06-21	2024-08-02	Developing	-2.1%
Downward Expansion	2023-08-25	2024-06-14	Extended	-31.6%
Balance	2023-06-09	2023-08-18	Developing	-21.6%
Downward Expansion	2023-05-05	2023-06-02	Developing	+3.8%
Rotation Down	2023-03-10	2023-04-28	Developing	-2.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing56

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution14

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 98/100
Current Relative Strength: -46.95
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -34.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -30.4%
Real Estate regime cohort: 49th percentile146 in cohort

Test 9983 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.63×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.41×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 9983 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 0.269falling

Slow Activity HKD 0.3279falling

Trend Reference HKD 0.3555-31.4% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 0.8754-72.1% close margin

Structural low HKD 0.23shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +15.3%

Annualized volatility +68.4%

From structural high -75.1%

From structural low +6.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	-3.1%-35.2% to +38.2%	+36.6%	+58.5%	-0.6%	+90.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	15	-8.8%-39.8% to +26.3%	+26.7%	+73.3%	-6.7%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	-23.6%-63.3% to +29.1%	+22.2%	+77.8%	-15.6%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-29.2%-51.1% to -21.8%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-32.1%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

9983 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

RMI Reversal Map