Weekly structural research · ASX · Consumer Cyclical

GAP Stage Analysis

Gale Pacific Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.10Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 37−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 69/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -14.3%AUD 0.1166 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.10	0.0886	13.74	500170	Deceleration	37	24
2026-10-02	0.098	0.0879	12.07	199661	Deceleration	41	27
2026-09-25	0.10	0.0873	14.69	127802	Upward Expansion	47	40
2026-09-18	0.10	0.0866	13.88	191609	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-09-11	0.105	0.0862	19.68	323415	Upward Expansion	66	64
2026-09-04	0.11	0.0855	22.05	25000	Upward Expansion	72	89
2026-08-28	0.115	0.0848	26.78	0	Upward Expansion	91	96
2026-08-21	0.10	0.084	11.28	22727	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-08-14	0.11	0.0836	21.68	0	Rotation Up	97	98
2026-08-07	0.10	0.0828	9.11	247667	Rotation Up	64	80
2026-07-31	0.093	0.0825	4.71	12746	Rotation Up	49	46
2026-07-24	0.082	0.0824	-5.67	0	Downward Expansion	-18	17
2026-07-17	0.085	0.0828	-2.78	22004	Downward Expansion	-5	10
2026-07-10	0.081	0.0831	-7.56	0	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2026-07-03	0.075	0.0834	-14.97	0	Downward Expansion	-70	49
2026-06-26	0.08	0.0839	-8.80	744965	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2026-06-19	0.075	0.0841	-15.40	0	Downward Expansion	-78	73
2026-06-12	0.079	0.0848	-10.99	12670	Downward Expansion	-56	57
2026-06-05	0.079	0.0852	-9.46	229232	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2026-05-29	0.078	0.0857	-11.93	85055	Downward Expansion	-63	39
2026-05-22	0.08	0.0863	-9.29	331496	Downward Expansion	-44	24
2026-05-15	0.08	0.0867	-9.38	1088752	Downward Expansion	-43	20
2026-05-08	0.085	0.087	-5.45	145254	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2026-05-01	0.081	0.0874	-10.14	270009	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2026-04-24	0.083	0.0879	-9.00	663952	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2026-04-17	0.08	0.0884	-14.29	291380	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2026-04-10	0.079	0.0888	-16.09	45193	Downward Expansion	-63	41
2026-04-03	0.084	0.0893	-7.75	288371	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2026-03-27	0.078	0.0896	-14.31	110161	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2026-03-20	0.082	0.0899	-10.13	285617	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2026-03-13	0.08	0.0904	-15.34	63331	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-03-06	0.081	0.091	-17.34	197549	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2026-02-27	0.078	0.0915	-24.19	786071	Downward Expansion	-83	71
2026-02-20	0.087	0.0921	-15.26	70009	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2026-02-13	0.086	0.0924	-15.14	524609	Downward Expansion	-63	39
2026-02-06	0.088	0.0925	-11.56	625615	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2026-01-30	0.09	0.0925	-11.61	1362643	Downward Expansion	-53	47
2026-01-23	0.089	0.0925	-12.99	528976	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2026-01-16	0.087	0.0926	-15.87	518474	Balance	-67	49
2026-01-09	0.09	0.0927	-11.88	621003	Balance	-42	18
2026-01-02	0.091	0.0928	-11.69	131387	Balance	-38	16
2025-12-26	0.092	0.0927	-11.93	154002	Balance	-15	10
2025-12-19	0.095	0.0928	-8.25	285532	Balance	-10	24
2025-12-12	0.09	0.0928	-14.45	137272	Balance	-52	48
2025-12-05	0.09	0.0932	-14.63	922398	Balance	-50	44
2025-11-28	0.087	0.0934	-17.93	350323	Balance	-54	39
2025-11-21	0.095	0.0939	-9.04	377456	Balance	-3	3
2025-11-14	0.092	0.094	-14.69	138345	Balance	-36	20
2025-11-07	0.094	0.0942	-14.84	558115	Balance	-20	15
2025-10-31	0.095	0.0948	-15.58	923745	Balance	-15	12
2025-10-24	0.091	0.0951	-21.15	62809	Balance	-49	22
2025-10-17	0.0905	0.0964	-22.12	363517	Balance	-28	15
2025-10-10	0.096	0.0979	-17.66	101271	Balance	-10	12
2025-10-03	0.097	0.0985	-17.62	55435	Balance	-8	9
2025-09-26	0.099	0.0993	-14.58	901416	Downward Expansion	-11	6
2025-09-19	0.091	0.10	-21.74	263981	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2025-09-12	0.093	0.1004	-21.26	19510	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2025-09-05	0.094	0.101	-21.17	5001275	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2025-08-29	0.087	0.1015	-28.25	970176	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2025-08-22	0.098	0.1025	-19.79	224507	Downward Expansion	-10	20
2025-08-15	0.097	0.103	-20.80	215391	Downward Expansion	-30	26
2025-08-08	0.095	0.104	-21.46	1672546	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-08-01	0.097	0.105	-18.77	29606	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2025-07-25	0.094	0.1062	-21.48	425545	Downward Expansion	-50	51
2025-07-18	0.09	0.1073	-25.85	597108	Downward Expansion	-62	68
2025-07-11	0.089	0.1084	-25.55	343674	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2025-07-04	0.089	0.11	-26.23	1732686	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-06-27	0.092	0.1113	-23.41	1461866	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2025-06-20	0.09	0.1126	-25.53	1681722	Downward Expansion	-67	66
2025-06-13	0.092	0.1139	-24.74	497039	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2025-06-06	0.09	0.1152	-26.70	655603	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2025-05-30	0.095	0.1164	-22.57	368077	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2025-05-23	0.095	0.1179	-22.53	161585	Downward Expansion	-65	46
2025-05-16	0.10	0.1192	-19.00	1253190	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2025-05-09	0.099	0.12	-19.20	688614	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2025-05-02	0.10	0.1209	-19.02	769127	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2025-04-25	0.097	0.1217	-19.63	306545	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2025-04-18	0.10	0.1225	-16.65	254521	Balance	-68	55
2025-04-11	0.11	0.123	-7.37	415607	Balance	-51	22
2025-04-04	0.105	0.1238	-12.70	1166106	Balance	-47	23
2025-03-28	0.13	0.1242	2.72	216862	Balance	9	20
2025-03-21	0.135	0.124	6.84	10706820	Downward Expansion	-3	15
2025-03-14	0.115	0.1235	-7.87	176153	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2025-03-07	0.12	0.123	-6.61	269997	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2025-02-28	0.12	0.1225	-9.85	2393299	Rotation Down	-61	57
2025-02-21	0.105	0.1218	-23.01	518814	Rotation Down	-51	72
2025-02-14	0.11	0.1218	-22.72	729350	Rotation Down	-46	67
2025-02-07	0.11	0.1219	-23.26	3547	Rotation Down	-39	61
2025-01-31	0.115	0.1222	-20.63	241620	Balance	-31	42
2025-01-24	0.115	0.1222	-20.36	362395	Balance	-11	16
2025-01-17	0.125	0.1226	-13.40	306048	Balance	13	9
2025-01-10	0.125	0.1224	-14.17	450186	Balance	26	14
2025-01-03	0.135	0.1226	-7.91	179729	Balance	50	24
2024-12-27	0.125	0.1226	-15.67	286425	Balance	31	16
2024-12-20	0.125	0.1229	-14.42	419667	Rotation Up	35	20
2024-12-13	0.135	0.1234	-10.93	296923	Rotation Up	54	34
2024-12-06	0.13	0.1232	-16.20	533782	Rotation Up	36	21
2024-11-29	0.13	0.1234	-17.18	221499	Rotation Up	46	22
2024-11-22	0.13	0.1242	-17.68	589498	Rotation Up	22	19
2024-11-15	0.13	0.1256	-17.39	75702	Rotation Up	25	30
2024-11-08	0.125	0.1269	-21.50	416694	Rotation Up	27	29
2024-11-01	0.14	0.1286	-11.13	1665832	Balance	30	37
2024-10-25	0.135	0.1298	-16.07	956285	Balance	5	15
2024-10-18	0.125	0.1306	-23.70	1036874	Balance	-7	8
2024-10-11	0.125	0.1321	-23.98	227504	Balance	-10	7
2024-10-04	0.125	0.1336	-24.44	143473	Balance	-10	12
2024-09-27	0.12	0.135	-28.82	80638	Downward Expansion	-17	13
2024-09-20	0.115	0.1368	-32.72	528940	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2024-09-13	0.135	0.1388	-20.99	803693	Downward Expansion	-13	21
2024-09-06	0.115	0.1403	-32.63	818769	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-08-30	0.125	0.1417	-28.28	514211	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2024-08-23	0.12	0.1435	-31.13	439421	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2024-08-16	0.10	0.1455	-43.11	656591	Downward Expansion	-75	83
2024-08-09	0.105	0.1483	-39.84	54361	Downward Expansion	-70	77
2024-08-02	0.10	0.1513	-44.62	1279441	Downward Expansion	-82	80
2024-07-26	0.105	0.1543	-42.47	636656	Downward Expansion	-82	77
2024-07-19	0.1125	0.1568	-39.51	339647	Downward Expansion	-77	76
2024-07-12	0.12	0.1591	-36.04	550303	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2024-07-05	0.115	0.1611	-38.22	632239	Downward Expansion	-81	74
2024-06-28	0.125	0.1632	-33.11	1590234	Downward Expansion	-71	64
2024-06-21	0.12	0.1652	-36.48	773789	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2024-06-14	0.13	0.1671	-31.05	241409	Downward Expansion	-74	73
2024-06-07	0.135	0.1689	-30.07	239544	Downward Expansion	-69	85
2024-05-31	0.135	0.1704	-29.09	128634	Downward Expansion	-72	88
2024-05-24	0.14	0.1722	-27.22	130960	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2024-05-17	0.13	0.1735	-33.53	1208169	Downward Expansion	-87	89
2024-05-10	0.135	0.1755	-31.00	1548605	Downward Expansion	-86	77
2024-05-03	0.155	0.178	-20.48	576983	Downward Expansion	-69	36
2024-04-26	0.17	0.1792	-13.16	221900	Downward Expansion	-37	17
2024-04-19	0.17	0.1805	-13.81	185073	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2024-04-12	0.175	0.1815	-14.61	258225	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2024-04-05	0.175	0.1823	-15.16	121299	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2024-03-29	0.16	0.1828	-24.46	89046	Downward Expansion	-69	52
2024-03-22	0.17	0.1835	-19.56	268983	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2024-03-15	0.17	0.1855	-19.47	160048	Downward Expansion	-56	35
2024-03-08	0.1675	0.1877	-23.36	347413	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2024-03-01	0.175	0.1891	-19.87	420511	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2024-02-23	0.175	0.1902	-19.71	911706	Downward Expansion	-57	57
2024-02-16	0.18	0.1914	-18.44	287755	Downward Expansion	-56	58
2024-02-09	0.155	0.1919	-30.50	985950	Downward Expansion	-84	74
2024-02-02	0.18	0.1932	-20.87	137975	Downward Expansion	-53	24
2024-01-26	0.18	0.1939	-20.21	124480	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2024-01-19	0.185	0.1939	-17.30	37169	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-01-12	0.195	0.1936	-14.38	221230	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2024-01-05	0.19	0.1931	-17.08	33519	Downward Expansion	-41	23
2023-12-29	0.18	0.1928	-23.17	151899	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2023-12-22	0.18	0.1931	-23.00	469480	Downward Expansion	-54	32
2023-12-15	0.18	0.1931	-23.09	580987	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2023-12-08	0.18	0.1939	-21.10	62581	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2023-12-01	0.185	0.1959	-18.19	92120	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2023-11-24	0.175	0.1982	-22.83	142920	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2023-11-17	0.185	0.2008	-19.18	119014	Downward Expansion	-54	53
2023-11-10	0.18	0.2032	-21.11	212333	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2023-11-03	0.1875	0.2056	-18.48	25027	Balance	-50	37
2023-10-27	0.18	0.2083	-20.71	121448	Balance	-59	37
2023-10-20	0.19	0.2118	-17.97	185185	Balance	-48	21

Price vs TrendAbove+12.9%

Trend directionRising+7.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-14.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+21.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+13.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+21.3%

Price momentumPositive+26.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.03×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

37 / ±100

-28.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

-40.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GAP Directional State ↗ GAP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion57

Deceleration91

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 4%Deceleration 1%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 64%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+2.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-25	Developing	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	+18.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-07-24	Extended	-7.9%
Balance	2025-10-03	2026-01-16	Established	-10.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-09-26	Established	+2.1%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	-23.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	+12.5%
Rotation Down	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	+9.1%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-31	Developing	-8.0%
Rotation Up	2024-11-08	2024-12-20	Developing	+0.0%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	+12.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-10	2024-09-27	Extended	-33.3%
Balance	2023-08-25	2023-11-03	Developing	-18.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing47

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution25

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 13.74
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +26.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +29.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 88th percentile16 in cohort

Test GAP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.64×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.03×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GAP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.0998falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.0935rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.0886+12.9% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.1166-14.3% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.068shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +9.3%

Annualized volatility +43.2%

From structural high -13.0%

From structural low +47.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	4	+0.4%-29.5% to +15.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+0.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	2	-8.3%-9.1% to -7.4%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-8.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-23.8%-29.1% to -18.5%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-21.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-25.2%-29.1% to -21.2%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-22.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GAP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map