Weekly structural research · ASX · Financial Services

HMY Stage Analysis

Harmoney Corp Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.705Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 56/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 87/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +16.8%AUD 0.6037 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.705	0.7642	-11.87	207226	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2026-10-02	0.735	0.7683	-8.17	190053	Downward Expansion	-54	50
2026-09-25	0.73	0.7733	-8.98	345200	Downward Expansion	-52	48
2026-09-18	0.705	0.7773	-13.11	199804	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2026-09-11	0.73	0.7832	-10.60	350173	Downward Expansion	-48	20
2026-09-04	0.765	0.7845	-9.28	38565	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2026-08-28	0.765	0.7843	-10.31	361	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2026-08-21	0.80	0.789	-5.96	249526	Downward Expansion	-20	14
2026-08-14	0.765	0.7917	-10.74	521	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2026-08-07	0.74	0.7953	-14.76	7275	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2026-07-31	0.735	0.8002	-12.48	64911	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2026-07-24	0.765	0.806	-6.64	30168	Downward Expansion	-58	64
2026-07-17	0.725	0.8105	-11.43	554	Downward Expansion	-75	70
2026-07-10	0.76	0.8157	-6.94	19210	Balance	-58	45
2026-07-03	0.76	0.8193	-6.99	830	Balance	-54	23
2026-06-26	0.79	0.8232	-2.04	39105	Balance	-16	13
2026-06-19	0.805	0.8232	-0.30	88176	Balance	-13	14
2026-06-12	0.815	0.8228	1.89	40501	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2026-06-05	0.80	0.8238	2.75	181990	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2026-05-29	0.81	0.8272	3.31	6552	Downward Expansion	-46	29
2026-05-22	0.785	0.8315	1.48	108195	Downward Expansion	-51	42
2026-05-15	0.735	0.8355	-4.42	88273	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2026-05-08	0.75	0.8418	-3.47	76491	Downward Expansion	-47	22
2026-05-01	0.79	0.8475	2.03	60923	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2026-04-24	0.81	0.8522	4.18	62284	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2026-04-17	0.83	0.8555	5.43	88527	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-04-10	0.78	0.8588	-0.33	12134	Downward Expansion	-56	59
2026-04-03	0.76	0.861	2.04	171711	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2026-03-27	0.775	0.8633	5.53	377085	Downward Expansion	-54	47
2026-03-20	0.705	0.8643	-2.30	253171	Balance	-72	46
2026-03-13	0.83	0.869	13.20	191612	Balance	-35	18
2026-03-06	0.885	0.8615	18.51	122724	Balance	-5	6
2026-02-27	0.85	0.853	10.31	183773	Balance	-19	25
2026-02-20	0.88	0.8462	16.09	280776	Balance	-13	23
2026-02-13	0.77	0.8367	3.83	65041	Balance	-37	38
2026-02-06	0.76	0.8303	5.48	1336045	Balance	-8	11
2026-01-30	0.905	0.8245	24.02	341779	Upward Expansion	51	25
2026-01-23	0.88	0.8133	21.80	140094	Upward Expansion	46	25
2026-01-16	0.875	0.8013	21.86	132527	Upward Expansion	40	26
2026-01-09	0.885	0.7892	27.28	153959	Upward Expansion	43	30
2026-01-02	0.91	0.7773	32.39	24233	Upward Expansion	49	35
2025-12-26	0.90	0.7663	32.37	73904	Deceleration	46	32
2025-12-19	0.88	0.756	33.49	178323	Deceleration	27	17
2025-12-12	0.87	0.7482	32.67	132657	Deceleration	19	18
2025-12-05	0.875	0.7393	36.38	436742	Deceleration	30	26
2025-11-28	0.79	0.7315	25.32	120342	Deceleration	21	27
2025-11-21	0.795	0.727	30.74	453715	Deceleration	38	27
2025-11-14	0.845	0.7182	37.34	207850	Upward Expansion	48	39
2025-11-07	0.90	0.7053	46.02	481570	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-10-31	0.94	0.6905	52.94	905678	Upward Expansion	71	64
2025-10-24	0.905	0.6742	47.35	847118	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-10-17	0.925	0.6597	53.42	196089	Upward Expansion	70	68
2025-10-10	0.92	0.6437	55.74	249021	Upward Expansion	71	70
2025-10-03	0.93	0.6283	59.70	296634	Upward Expansion	79	88
2025-09-26	0.91	0.6155	62.68	367161	Upward Expansion	79	91
2025-09-19	0.93	0.6062	69.33	1007244	Upward Expansion	89	96
2025-09-12	0.845	0.5975	55.14	429077	Upward Expansion	81	93
2025-09-05	0.83	0.5877	54.68	535218	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-08-29	0.805	0.578	50.52	345501	Upward Expansion	90	95
2025-08-22	0.845	0.5693	60.19	1443420	Upward Expansion	96	92
2025-08-15	0.605	0.5558	16.70	93169	Upward Expansion	61	66
2025-08-08	0.63	0.5502	23.70	137424	Upward Expansion	68	69
2025-08-01	0.645	0.5428	29.49	104244	Deceleration	72	63
2025-07-25	0.595	0.5333	20.18	128013	Deceleration	53	32
2025-07-18	0.58	0.5257	16.55	51026	Deceleration	45	21
2025-07-11	0.585	0.5188	20.80	321188	Deceleration	34	18
2025-07-04	0.57	0.5113	18.29	369633	Deceleration	24	20
2025-06-27	0.52	0.5043	9.72	115873	Deceleration	16	21
2025-06-20	0.51	0.4992	8.28	190324	Upward Expansion	19	18
2025-06-13	0.53	0.4942	12.26	100007	Upward Expansion	38	25
2025-06-06	0.58	0.4895	23.66	89295	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-05-30	0.59	0.483	27.83	95119	Upward Expansion	62	67
2025-05-23	0.645	0.4765	41.94	419478	Upward Expansion	70	77
2025-05-16	0.605	0.4672	34.62	360700	Upward Expansion	58	66
2025-05-09	0.64	0.4598	45.33	371103	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-05-02	0.655	0.4503	49.88	299888	Deceleration	62	43
2025-04-25	0.53	0.4405	26.41	145718	Deceleration	24	13
2025-04-18	0.46	0.4362	12.27	19890	Deceleration	8	15
2025-04-11	0.455	0.4333	13.55	151249	Deceleration	17	22
2025-04-04	0.45	0.4305	12.06	93251	Deceleration	17	25
2025-03-28	0.47	0.4282	12.42	181658	Deceleration	29	27
2025-03-21	0.445	0.4258	6.99	163688	Upward Expansion	35	20
2025-03-14	0.46	0.4247	12.14	116994	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-03-07	0.545	0.425	29.67	164161	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-02-28	0.63	0.421	46.04	276962	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-02-21	0.67	0.4145	53.74	830493	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-02-14	0.55	0.4062	22.92	16235	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-02-07	0.54	0.4002	20.77	41202	Upward Expansion	86	94
2025-01-31	0.545	0.3943	20.93	367384	Rotation Up	91	91
2025-01-24	0.44	0.3887	-0.70	151633	Rotation Up	36	57
2025-01-17	0.435	0.386	-0.68	12796	Downward Expansion	32	37
2025-01-10	0.41	0.3852	-6.44	69954	Downward Expansion	-11	9
2025-01-03	0.36	0.3853	-17.76	42261	Downward Expansion	-53	27
2024-12-27	0.365	0.3863	-17.30	108609	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2024-12-20	0.375	0.3872	-13.62	88238	Downward Expansion	-50	37
2024-12-13	0.36	0.388	-19.84	59923	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2024-12-06	0.36	0.39	-21.69	106870	Downward Expansion	-53	40
2024-11-29	0.365	0.392	-21.53	8478	Downward Expansion	-51	28
2024-11-22	0.36	0.3943	-22.91	37156	Downward Expansion	-42	18
2024-11-15	0.39	0.3963	-16.25	2838138	Downward Expansion	-30	13
2024-11-08	0.385	0.3982	-18.09	51117	Downward Expansion	-33	14
2024-11-01	0.395	0.4003	-14.76	143553	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-10-25	0.365	0.4025	-22.69	147374	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2024-10-18	0.385	0.4067	-19.89	100493	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2024-10-11	0.355	0.4113	-26.08	40218	Downward Expansion	-63	48
2024-10-04	0.36	0.4175	-25.11	69887	Balance	-64	53
2024-09-27	0.40	0.4222	-18.27	55821	Balance	-52	41
2024-09-20	0.375	0.4253	-24.07	48679	Balance	-46	37
2024-09-13	0.37	0.4303	-24.76	45346	Balance	-48	33
2024-09-06	0.38	0.4375	-22.64	142662	Balance	-39	17
2024-08-30	0.40	0.4448	-19.91	354036	Balance	-14	14
2024-08-23	0.41	0.4462	-17.81	171146	Downward Expansion	-6	19
2024-08-16	0.47	0.4458	-5.43	21869	Downward Expansion	14	29
2024-08-09	0.425	0.4448	-12.33	15558	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2024-08-02	0.435	0.4458	-12.08	14023	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2024-07-26	0.42	0.447	-14.94	130638	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-07-19	0.37	0.4493	-25.49	22280	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2024-07-12	0.365	0.4528	-26.48	56915	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2024-07-05	0.375	0.4573	-23.28	54096	Downward Expansion	-67	53
2024-06-28	0.36	0.4618	-25.91	191216	Downward Expansion	-78	58
2024-06-21	0.41	0.4662	-15.87	149302	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-06-14	0.415	0.4695	-13.86	71165	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-06-07	0.39	0.4723	-20.18	72534	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2024-05-31	0.39	0.4752	-18.58	51383	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-05-24	0.40	0.4785	-16.78	33497	Downward Expansion	-73	72
2024-05-17	0.42	0.4815	-13.66	63087	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-05-10	0.42	0.4835	-12.98	109348	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-05-03	0.435	0.486	-8.76	55564	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2024-04-26	0.42	0.4892	-11.37	20907	Balance	-64	57
2024-04-19	0.445	0.4935	-5.97	32406	Balance	-55	41
2024-04-12	0.45	0.4962	-7.26	142512	Balance	-16	16
2024-04-05	0.46	0.4997	-4.83	76605	Balance	-12	8
2024-03-29	0.49	0.5008	0.07	95186	Balance	2	3
2024-03-22	0.525	0.5022	9.20	34149	Balance	12	9
2024-03-15	0.54	0.499	14.30	160510	Balance	27	16
2024-03-08	0.50	0.4948	3.88	156570	Deceleration	40	37
2024-03-01	0.495	0.491	4.14	98915	Deceleration	44	39
2024-02-23	0.525	0.4885	11.50	31728	Rotation Up	43	40
2024-02-16	0.585	0.4835	23.49	35660	Rotation Up	59	40
2024-02-09	0.60	0.4763	26.70	680372	Rotation Up	42	16
2024-02-02	0.44	0.469	-7.87	79871	Rotation Down	-35	62
2024-01-26	0.40	0.4663	-15.32	130345	Rotation Down	-58	70
2024-01-19	0.44	0.4637	-5.74	2630	Balance	-35	46
2024-01-12	0.455	0.4597	-3.74	38751	Balance	-10	21
2024-01-05	0.47	0.4548	-1.35	85605	Balance	3	9
2023-12-29	0.49	0.4513	0.96	810	Upward Expansion	22	15
2023-12-22	0.475	0.4472	-0.88	73816	Upward Expansion	21	15
2023-12-15	0.50	0.4443	5.34	73885	Upward Expansion	41	29
2023-12-08	0.51	0.4412	10.86	128870	Deceleration	48	34
2023-12-01	0.49	0.4398	8.15	44014	Deceleration	47	27
2023-11-24	0.51	0.438	12.69	75005	Deceleration	44	25
2023-11-17	0.50	0.4343	10.17	92716	Deceleration	36	20
2023-11-10	0.475	0.429	5.44	172621	Deceleration	33	22
2023-11-03	0.49	0.4258	8.37	14982	Deceleration	37	23
2023-10-27	0.49	0.4215	10.12	80272	Upward Expansion	41	27
2023-10-20	0.48	0.4183	6.11	138493	Upward Expansion	47	37

Price vs TrendBelow-7.7%

Trend directionFalling-4.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-14.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-4.9%

Price momentumNegative-9.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led1.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-63 / ±100

-14.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

56 /100

+35.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HMY Directional State ↗ HMY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance22

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration39

Rotation Down64

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 25%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-09	Established	-2.8%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	-5.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-06-12	Developing	+5.2%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-03-20	Developing	-7.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-30	Developing	-0.5%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-12-26	Developing	+13.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-11-14	Established	+34.1%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	+24.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-06-20	Developing	-20.3%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-05-02	Developing	+39.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-21	Developing	-17.6%
Rotation Up	2025-01-24	2025-01-31	New	+23.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-11	2025-01-17	Established	+22.5%
Balance	2024-08-30	2024-10-04	Developing	-10.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 82/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.87
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -9.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 25th percentile64 in cohort

Test HMY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HMY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.7197falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.7558falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.7642-7.7% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.6037+16.8% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.685shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.0%

Annualized volatility +26.0%

From structural high -29.5%

From structural low +11.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-2.7%-29.1% to +51.4%	+40.0%	+56.7%	-1.1%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+0.0%-35.0% to +64.1%	+44.4%	+44.4%	-4.1%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-7.5%-48.6% to +65.8%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-11.6%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+2.6%-64.5% to +61.3%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-5.4%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HMY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map