Weekly structural research · NSI · Consumer Cyclical

COSMOFIRST Stage Analysis

Cosmo First Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close INR 826.85Tenure NewBenchmark ^NSEI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 21−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 25/100directional strength

Maturity 63/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.1%INR 758.17 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	826.85	788.42	18.55	170431	Deceleration	21	25
2026-09-25	849.40	784.20	18.14	163224	Deceleration	39	26
2026-09-18	871.25	779.59	20.28	181894	Upward Expansion	48	41
2026-09-11	874.90	772.99	20.60	252178	Upward Expansion	63	55
2026-09-04	919.85	768.46	24.19	781577	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-08-28	938.35	758.38	25.20	48392	Upward Expansion	77	91
2026-08-21	922.95	746.95	22.63	34117	Upward Expansion	74	89
2026-08-14	938.35	735.43	23.87	153451	Upward Expansion	85	92
2026-08-07	892.50	725.60	16.63	687554	Upward Expansion	75	84
2026-07-31	892.30	717.67	17.08	133319	Upward Expansion	78	82
2026-07-24	881.00	711.10	18.19	98772	Upward Expansion	80	83
2026-07-17	831.02	704.03	8.48	90908	Upward Expansion	66	74
2026-07-10	827.14	699.24	7.80	43353	Upward Expansion	67	73
2026-07-03	848.99	695.61	9.61	384712	Upward Expansion	75	66
2026-06-26	799.67	691.26	3.57	0	Upward Expansion	66	41
2026-06-19	776.98	688.87	0.16	91183	Upward Expansion	52	30
2026-06-12	726.95	687.41	-5.70	56944	Upward Expansion	43	28
2026-06-05	742.20	689.52	-3.67	55884	Rotation Up	56	40
2026-05-29	727.65	693.96	-6.95	429050	Rotation Up	33	53
2026-05-22	771.10	697.44	-3.06	1561053	Rotation Up	37	59
2026-05-15	760.10	700.35	-4.42	370154	Rotation Up	36	55
2026-05-08	815.45	704.20	0.62	931503	Balance	39	39
2026-05-01	713.75	706.97	-10.76	297457	Balance	-3	12
2026-04-24	698.30	712.22	-12.03	553536	Downward Expansion	-22	11
2026-04-17	668.75	717.26	-17.11	260077	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2026-04-10	656.05	725.47	-17.52	327941	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2026-04-03	615.60	734.41	-17.91	305999	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2026-03-27	595.05	745.99	-20.96	485252	Downward Expansion	-67	44
2026-03-20	624.55	759.12	-18.10	424544	Downward Expansion	-59	31
2026-03-13	645.65	772.32	-15.51	364355	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2026-03-06	700.05	784.70	-13.22	727636	Downward Expansion	-28	25
2026-02-27	711.35	795.52	-14.36	1220281	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2026-02-20	673.05	806.42	-20.16	484008	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2026-02-13	739.20	819.77	-12.13	1377175	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-02-06	617.25	832.88	-27.22	502784	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-01-30	595.50	850.30	-29.03	187968	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2026-01-23	577.40	868.25	-30.77	563202	Downward Expansion	-86	72
2026-01-16	643.40	886.73	-25.25	154160	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2026-01-09	654.65	906.63	-24.38	262385	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2026-01-02	695.20	924.75	-22.29	155905	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-12-26	668.95	938.26	-25.00	151634	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2025-12-19	687.40	955.43	-23.31	204929	Downward Expansion	-76	80
2025-12-12	718.05	963.76	-20.75	782500	Downward Expansion	-70	86
2025-12-05	718.65	961.77	-21.37	206881	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2025-11-28	728.00	956.71	-20.77	294237	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2025-11-21	732.90	951.89	-20.03	242228	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2025-11-14	790.35	947.23	-13.37	355515	Downward Expansion	-77	75
2025-11-07	875.60	940.42	-2.58	326950	Rotation Down	-33	45
2025-10-31	831.90	929.77	-8.17	164154	Rotation Down	-44	44
2025-10-24	858.30	921.68	-5.47	151888	Rotation Down	-39	38
2025-10-17	875.75	913.51	-3.07	238087	Rotation Down	-36	45
2025-10-10	898.50	906.02	1.32	302992	Rotation Down	-26	51
2025-10-03	871.20	896.24	0.05	180109	Deceleration	-31	57
2025-09-26	849.65	888.70	-1.21	278970	Deceleration	-21	51
2025-09-19	915.05	880.27	3.87	247536	Deceleration	-7	26
2025-09-12	924.05	872.17	6.18	491556	Deceleration	-4	17
2025-09-05	963.15	862.83	12.69	300955	Deceleration	13	17
2025-08-29	989.00	854.80	17.69	206904	Deceleration	20	18
2025-08-22	1,020.30	846.79	19.90	354447	Deceleration	32	22
2025-08-15	1,017.20	838.61	20.88	571593	Deceleration	34	23
2025-08-08	1,024.60	832.46	23.38	443967	Deceleration	38	26
2025-08-01	1,038.30	829.17	24.17	516865	Deceleration	43	35
2025-07-25	1,073.50	827.08	27.53	236395	Upward Expansion	47	45
2025-07-18	1,132.78	822.85	34.51	300766	Upward Expansion	60	55
2025-07-11	1,139.75	816.77	35.28	310449	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-07-04	1,133.97	806.58	33.81	287894	Upward Expansion	66	69
2025-06-27	1,131.88	798.37	33.22	978569	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-06-20	1,240.38	786.60	50.05	889218	Rotation Up	82	94
2025-06-13	1,198.14	769.95	48.65	709368	Rotation Up	57	85
2025-06-06	1,100.40	755.83	36.54	1041291	Rotation Up	47	81
2025-05-30	1,184.19	745.22	50.10	3608009	Rotation Up	54	73
2025-05-23	937.21	731.13	20.01	5106957	Rotation Up	20	29
2025-05-16	658.50	724.26	-15.58	446654	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2025-05-09	566.94	727.59	-24.28	176114	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2025-05-02	583.18	734.14	-23.28	192886	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2025-04-25	593.14	739.89	-21.14	448935	Downward Expansion	-63	63
2025-04-18	586.17	745.62	-21.53	136527	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2025-04-11	556.08	751.20	-22.25	314576	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2025-04-04	589.10	759.06	-17.90	338119	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2025-03-28	613.12	765.55	-16.75	798599	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2025-03-21	651.07	771.03	-10.75	458306	Downward Expansion	-63	67
2025-03-14	605.20	781.01	-13.29	341425	Downward Expansion	-69	70
2025-03-07	645.15	791.37	-7.88	639275	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2025-02-28	596.68	802.05	-12.82	563133	Downward Expansion	-78	78
2025-02-21	671.95	810.56	-4.48	659349	Balance	-69	71
2025-02-14	643.75	817.02	-8.74	674132	Balance	-68	60
2025-02-07	722.36	822.94	-0.08	389116	Balance	-28	33
2025-01-31	748.86	826.70	4.11	531222	Balance	-12	19
2025-01-24	774.86	831.78	9.97	499674	Upward Expansion	21	13
2025-01-17	832.65	832.00	17.92	591842	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-01-10	925.85	830.30	30.41	1201152	Upward Expansion	64	71
2025-01-03	975.71	822.12	34.99	749088	Upward Expansion	74	77
2024-12-27	946.37	809.27	33.05	1088438	Upward Expansion	63	70
2024-12-20	950.51	796.04	35.95	7883837	Balance	67	64
2024-12-13	833.94	783.33	14.49	786271	Balance	43	35
2024-12-06	887.84	775.72	22.76	1053861	Balance	47	28
2024-11-29	778.70	764.85	10.60	287322	Balance	-8	7
2024-11-22	740.99	759.46	6.36	249148	Balance	-17	10
2024-11-15	774.51	754.29	12.94	365277	Deceleration	18	11
2024-11-08	782.09	747.09	11.22	387413	Deceleration	15	13
2024-11-01	761.51	739.20	7.59	199117	Deceleration	3	12
2024-10-25	730.98	732.54	3.69	246862	Deceleration	-4	19
2024-10-18	758.57	724.74	4.50	173262	Deceleration	4	12
2024-10-11	763.31	716.97	4.48	166188	Deceleration	6	15
2024-10-04	755.63	707.26	3.01	180782	Deceleration	5	16
2024-09-27	765.05	698.83	-0.61	524001	Deceleration	11	18
2024-09-20	753.69	690.51	-0.96	332076	Deceleration	24	26
2024-09-13	791.65	683.55	5.45	490765	Deceleration	37	23
2024-09-06	783.98	674.77	6.40	444551	Upward Expansion	45	30
2024-08-30	777.45	667.64	3.60	1806208	Upward Expansion	61	47
2024-08-23	950.61	661.73	28.28	1556144	Upward Expansion	71	61
2024-08-16	915.99	650.95	25.44	823234	Upward Expansion	69	61
2024-08-09	965.60	641.28	33.63	1227873	Upward Expansion	83	67
2024-08-02	851.88	630.76	16.74	1286286	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-07-26	865.72	622.74	18.24	636206	Upward Expansion	73	84
2024-07-19	821.18	614.07	13.82	487223	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-07-12	835.23	606.74	16.00	297730	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-07-05	901.41	599.18	26.20	962198	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-06-28	781.32	589.56	11.01	413223	Upward Expansion	83	88
2024-06-21	781.57	584.04	13.18	1956917	Upward Expansion	87	79
2024-06-14	680.50	578.45	-1.53	729361	Balance	36	26
2024-06-07	590.45	576.72	-14.15	304326	Balance	4	6
2024-05-31	549.29	578.07	-17.80	146195	Balance	-24	12
2024-05-24	569.25	580.88	-16.80	200807	Balance	14	18
2024-05-17	605.69	582.84	-10.02	385936	Balance	23	27
2024-05-10	561.70	584.53	-15.46	287271	Balance	-6	18
2024-05-03	616.86	588.05	-9.43	277954	Balance	8	21
2024-04-26	585.93	589.86	-14.28	608739	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2024-04-19	558.63	593.03	-17.68	224343	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2024-04-12	545.22	596.97	-21.45	225727	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2024-04-05	561.80	601.31	-19.55	307420	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-03-29	497.17	606.39	-28.64	401585	Downward Expansion	-68	61
2024-03-22	525.42	613.70	-24.31	655733	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2024-03-15	471.85	617.54	-32.20	544774	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-03-08	502.93	622.47	-29.79	223233	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2024-03-01	515.24	626.87	-28.20	297624	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2024-02-23	544.97	630.79	-24.24	405028	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2024-02-16	528.25	633.08	-26.58	566314	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2024-02-09	569.99	636.66	-20.58	310103	Downward Expansion	-73	53
2024-02-02	600.23	639.14	-17.32	251248	Downward Expansion	-46	23
2024-01-26	627.08	641.23	-12.21	164131	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2024-01-19	625.94	643.49	-14.00	160977	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2024-01-12	650.02	645.54	-12.44	575587	Downward Expansion	-29	19
2024-01-05	611.45	644.59	-17.42	304857	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2023-12-29	605.54	644.13	-18.90	225871	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2023-12-22	601.27	643.63	-18.65	307972	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2023-12-15	608.32	643.96	-18.57	251026	Rotation Down	-66	62
2023-12-08	612.98	645.15	-16.55	233952	Rotation Down	-36	48
2023-12-01	615.71	645.90	-13.89	192074	Rotation Down	-35	45
2023-11-24	613.68	647.78	-12.79	118048	Balance	-25	38
2023-11-17	628.82	647.75	-10.64	95090	Balance	-19	29
2023-11-10	630.96	647.25	-9.26	177474	Balance	-17	21
2023-11-03	633.59	646.54	-8.32	81166	Balance	-14	16
2023-10-27	627.83	645.76	-8.71	218759	Balance	12	12
2023-10-20	656.67	644.12	-7.34	248344	Balance	31	14
2023-10-13	667.24	641.10	-7.23	136966	Balance	35	19

Price vs TrendAbove+4.9%

Trend directionRising+10.9%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+18.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.9%

Price momentumPositive+34.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.75×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

21 / ±100

-46.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

25 /100

-56.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

COSMOFIRST Directional State ↗ COSMOFIRST Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion56

Deceleration91

Rotation Down39

Downward Expansion22

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-2.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-09-18	Established	+19.9%
Rotation Up	2026-05-15	2026-06-05	New	-2.4%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-08	New	+14.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-04-24	Established	-11.6%
Rotation Down	2025-10-10	2025-11-07	Developing	-2.5%
Deceleration	2025-08-01	2025-10-03	Developing	-16.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-07-25	Developing	-5.2%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	+32.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-05-16	Developing	+10.4%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-02-21	New	-10.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-01-24	Developing	-18.1%
Balance	2024-11-22	2024-12-20	Developing	+28.3%
Deceleration	2024-09-13	2024-11-15	Developing	-2.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing31

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution47

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NSEI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 78/100
Current Relative Strength: 18.55
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +34.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +35.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 45th percentile73 in cohort

Test COSMOFIRST trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.63×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.75×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore COSMOFIRST Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity INR 854.35falling

Slow Activity INR 838.99rising

Trend Reference INR 788.42+4.9% close margin

Current Fair Value INR 758.17+9.1% close margin

Structural low INR 602.25shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +31.9%

From structural high -17.0%

From structural low +47.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^NSEI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+1.7%-14.1% to +28.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+1.3%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+7.5%-19.9% to +15.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+10.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	-23.6%-42.6% to +26.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-11.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-5.3%-11.6% to +16.7%	+33.3%	+33.3%	+1.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

COSMOFIRST Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map