Weekly structural research ยท JNB ยท Real Estate

DLT Stage Analysis

Delta Property Fund Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close ZAC 35.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^J203.JO
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Down ยท Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -29โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 49/100directional strength
Maturity 7/100lifecycle context
Confidence 64/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +29.4%ZAC 27.04 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-2535.0037.301.8759180Rotation Down-2949
2026-09-1835.0037.400.41391327Deceleration-2739
2026-09-1136.0037.501.81334261Deceleration-112
2026-09-0438.0037.576.33638467Deceleration810
2026-08-2840.0037.5711.111586339Deceleration1311
2026-08-2138.0037.536.4948461Deceleration2013
2026-08-1438.0037.5710.420Deceleration2316
2026-08-0739.0037.5310.48247196Deceleration2819
2026-07-3142.0037.4726.08250020Deceleration3319
2026-07-2439.0037.3720.25183840Upward Expansion3719
2026-07-1740.0037.2724.0645800Upward Expansion5436
2026-07-1044.0037.0736.58181367Upward Expansion6166
2026-07-0345.0036.7739.74804362Upward Expansion6173
2026-06-2650.0036.3358.611464594Upward Expansion7476
2026-06-1950.0035.7757.85951218Balance7971
2026-06-1246.0035.2347.543940552Balance3941
2026-06-0535.0034.7015.144049335Balance-2212
2026-05-2933.0034.506.183452779Balance-3115
2026-05-2235.0034.2714.55741242Balance37
2026-05-1534.0033.9010.6520562Balance-75
2026-05-0834.0033.508.06881452Balance-87
2026-05-0133.0033.237.5678121Deceleration-2015
2026-04-2432.0032.973.42181328Deceleration-1515
2026-04-1733.0032.732.85390273Deceleration-1214
2026-04-1031.0032.47-1.4736200Deceleration-2228
2026-04-0333.0032.377.192027326Deceleration417
2026-03-2734.0032.1014.86248433Deceleration518
2026-03-2032.0031.839.891950076Deceleration014
2026-03-1331.0031.632.219935267Deceleration812
2026-03-0634.0031.5010.48397645Deceleration3320
2026-02-2738.0031.2012.422840797Upward Expansion4330
2026-02-2038.0030.7717.733125008Upward Expansion5438
2026-02-1338.0030.3021.052261310Upward Expansion5844
2026-02-0638.0029.8322.5010790362Upward Expansion6047
2026-01-3039.0029.3326.34689708Upward Expansion6652
2026-01-2339.0028.8725.221536130Upward Expansion7058
2026-01-1637.0028.2321.42939776Upward Expansion6455
2026-01-0937.0027.6324.331406965Upward Expansion6555
2026-01-0239.0027.1334.08615969Upward Expansion8068
2025-12-2636.0026.5023.661758100Upward Expansion7357
2025-12-1934.0026.0019.84775685Upward Expansion6668
2025-12-1235.0025.5725.751689999Upward Expansion7682
2025-12-0532.0025.1016.321271859Upward Expansion6576
2025-11-2833.0024.8322.461005405Upward Expansion7381
2025-11-2134.0024.4728.421614211Upward Expansion8179
2025-11-1430.0024.0311.431455512Deceleration6961
2025-11-0729.0023.8010.751188796Deceleration6228
2025-10-3126.0023.70-1.10825361Deceleration2514
2025-10-2424.0023.57-10.1580000Deceleration1312
2025-10-1722.0023.63-18.312123868Deceleration1011
2025-10-1026.0023.67-3.51264426Deceleration3818
2025-10-0325.0023.60-7.661233150Deceleration3722
2025-09-2625.0023.50-5.62922713Upward Expansion3923
2025-09-1925.0023.40-5.551104583Upward Expansion5231
2025-09-1228.0023.176.7474643Upward Expansion6641
2025-09-0525.0022.87-2.68660550Upward Expansion5641
2025-08-2926.0022.770.36848025Upward Expansion5951
2025-08-2226.0022.47-0.921950000Upward Expansion6358
2025-08-1527.0022.333.15717541Upward Expansion7263
2025-08-0825.0022.07-3.905104642Upward Expansion6255
2025-08-0125.0021.90-1.473156850Upward Expansion6156
2025-07-2524.0021.73-7.5137360Balance5643
2025-07-1824.0021.57-8.39127437Balance4631
2025-07-1123.0021.40-12.05412990Balance3418
2025-07-0425.0021.37-5.0818694907Balance4319
2025-06-2720.0021.10-23.241148999Balance-2033
2025-06-2019.0021.07-26.601291485Balance-2833
2025-06-1322.0021.17-16.15300706Balance-1115
2025-06-0620.0021.20-25.16286380Balance-1920
2025-05-3021.0021.30-20.651336424Balance79
2025-05-2321.0021.47-20.54606945Balance1712
2025-05-1621.0021.60-20.59580779Balance2115
2025-05-0924.0021.73-9.03296537Balance3719
2025-05-0222.0021.87-16.72753661Balance66
2025-04-2521.0022.03-18.94115288Balance46
2025-04-1823.0022.20-9.87315010Balance2524
2025-04-1126.0022.335.9998733Balance3840
2025-04-0422.0022.47-4.24350431Balance1831
2025-03-2826.0022.603.822655010Balance3042
2025-03-2123.0022.60-7.452177312Balance1520
2025-03-1424.0022.73-1.22825653Balance110
2025-03-0722.0022.83-9.87327783Balance-168
2025-02-2822.0023.00-7.09501798Downward Expansion-2914
2025-02-2118.0023.33-26.19454464Downward Expansion-5934
2025-02-1419.0023.83-22.14842967Downward Expansion-4925
2025-02-0722.0024.33-8.76916716Downward Expansion-3924
2025-01-3117.0024.53-28.15324436Downward Expansion-7041
2025-01-2422.0024.77-5.56535186Downward Expansion-4228
2025-01-1719.0024.80-18.79279249Downward Expansion-6143
2025-01-1020.0024.97-13.39739291Downward Expansion-5843
2025-01-0320.0025.17-14.921075Downward Expansion-6046
2024-12-2719.0025.47-19.4519777Downward Expansion-6769
2024-12-2019.0025.67-19.74605124Downward Expansion-7078
2024-12-1322.0026.03-10.281051750Downward Expansion-6575
2024-12-0617.0026.13-30.52578023Downward Expansion-8384
2024-11-2919.0026.10-20.60754063Rotation Down-7874
2024-11-2222.0026.00-9.731002804Rotation Down-3950
2024-11-1523.0025.80-3.80905616Balance-3241
2024-11-0823.0025.50-5.882653181Balance-2331
2024-11-0126.0025.203.64239141Deceleration1011
2024-10-2525.0024.73-1.552103679Deceleration58
2024-10-1825.0024.37-2.411360100Deceleration77
2024-10-1128.0024.0010.13553879Deceleration3013
2024-10-0427.0023.635.661118600Deceleration1911
2024-09-2726.0023.33-0.4817081Deceleration1911
2024-09-2027.0022.936.971062795Deceleration3215
2024-09-1330.0022.6321.291535757Deceleration4119
2024-09-0626.0022.235.671279740Deceleration3021
2024-08-3026.0021.933.33141078Deceleration3423
2024-08-2327.0021.707.57826197Upward Expansion4125
2024-08-1627.0021.4310.68464667Upward Expansion5740
2024-08-0927.0021.1314.76808837Upward Expansion6057
2024-08-0232.0020.9337.85507630Upward Expansion6572
2024-07-2633.0020.5743.20529082Upward Expansion7169
2024-07-1934.0020.2351.572249927Deceleration7851
2024-07-1228.0019.8723.865541101Deceleration5432
2024-07-0524.0019.578.36178334Upward Expansion4329
2024-06-2823.0019.475.7959006Upward Expansion5741
2024-06-2124.0019.4710.91165745Upward Expansion6254
2024-06-1426.0019.3725.031608286Rotation Up6477
2024-06-0729.0019.4340.653281946Rotation Up4973
2024-05-3125.0019.6022.291275378Rotation Up2858
2024-05-2430.0019.6042.76490698Rotation Up4855
2024-05-1725.0019.5019.316651788Downward Expansion1824
2024-05-1016.0019.50-22.42183199Downward Expansion-3418
2024-05-0316.0019.87-20.80167522Downward Expansion-4026
2024-04-2616.0020.37-20.11510761Downward Expansion-5640
2024-04-1914.0020.90-28.932205783Downward Expansion-5952
2024-04-1214.0021.30-31.35230725Downward Expansion-6167
2024-04-0512.0021.83-41.231105723Downward Expansion-7468
2024-03-2914.0021.97-31.994466346Downward Expansion-6549
2024-03-2214.0021.90-31.411046518Downward Expansion-7060
2024-03-1517.0021.83-17.08818078Downward Expansion-5649
2024-03-0818.0021.67-13.57108253Downward Expansion-5853
2024-03-0114.0021.50-32.23691868Downward Expansion-7670
2024-02-2318.0021.50-15.21578148Downward Expansion-3144
2024-02-1618.0021.50-14.99625502Rotation Down-3344
2024-02-0917.0021.47-19.82262571Rotation Down-3846
2024-02-0219.0021.43-12.401919802Deceleration-2930
2024-01-2619.0021.37-13.892817950Deceleration-2024
2024-01-1918.0021.27-16.22243140Deceleration-2519
2024-01-1221.0021.23-5.062759566Deceleration47
2024-01-0521.0021.20-5.882987801Deceleration417
2023-12-2923.0021.23-0.83150704Deceleration615
2023-12-2223.0021.171.71279316Deceleration517
2023-12-1519.0021.10-17.58972935Deceleration-117
2023-12-0821.0021.20-7.90175731Deceleration1816
2023-12-0123.0021.23-2.394096790Deceleration3217
2023-11-2421.0021.20-11.291467946Deceleration3019
2023-11-1728.0021.4320.17351234Deceleration5235
2023-11-1034.0021.3051.02589379Deceleration7243
2023-11-0325.0020.979.43375383Rotation Up4329
2023-10-2727.0020.9722.76212979Rotation Up5844
2023-10-2025.0020.8711.73266370Rotation Up3658
2023-10-1327.0020.8014.72121307Rotation Up3870
2023-10-0631.0020.6732.65194356Rotation Up4671
Price vs TrendBelow-6.2%
Trend directionRising+0.1%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+29.4%
Fair Value directionMoving away-68.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+1.9%
Relative strength directionWeakening-56.7%
Price momentumPositive+2.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.65ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-29 / ยฑ100

-41.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

49 /100

+38.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up16
Upward Expansion25
Deceleration50
Rotation Down66
Downward Expansion55

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 31%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 17%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Down2026-09-252026-09-25New+0.0%
Deceleration2026-07-312026-09-18Developing-16.7%
Upward Expansion2026-06-262026-07-24Developing-22.0%
Balance2026-05-082026-06-19Developing+47.1%
Deceleration2026-03-062026-05-01Developing-2.9%
Upward Expansion2025-11-212026-02-27Established+11.8%
Deceleration2025-10-032025-11-14Developing+20.0%
Upward Expansion2025-08-012025-09-26Developing+0.0%
Balance2025-03-072025-07-25Established+9.1%
Downward Expansion2024-12-062025-02-28Established+29.4%
Rotation Down2024-11-222024-11-29New-13.6%
Balance2024-11-082024-11-15New+0.0%
Deceleration2024-08-302024-11-01Developing+0.0%
Upward Expansion2024-07-262024-08-23Developing-18.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing42
Stage 2 ยท Advancing38
Stage 3 ยท Distribution74
Stage 4 ยท Declining62

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3B ยท Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^J203.JO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
50/100
Current Relative Strength
1.87
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+2.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+3.8%
Real Estate regime cohort
50th percentile2 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.06ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.65ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity ZAC 35.93falling
Slow Activity ZAC 38.59falling
Trend Reference ZAC 37.30-6.2% close margin
Current Fair Value ZAC 27.04+29.4% close margin
Structural low ZAC 30.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +11.0%
Annualized volatility +53.4%
From structural high -46.2%
From structural low +59.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^J203.JO Regime survived Read
Near term2-3.9%-13.6% to +5.9%+50.0%+50.0%-3.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate2-12.0%-18.2% to -5.9%+0.0%+100.0%-17.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+27.1%-4.5% to +58.8%+50.0%+50.0%+17.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+29.4%+29.4% to +29.4%+100.0%+0.0%+10.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context