Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
47
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 28 August 2026
Australia AU Basic Materials Industry
Gold
For the week ending 28 August 2026, Gold advanced 1.25% with 80 advancing, 66 declining, and 30 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
47
technical evidence
Index1322.49
1 week1.25%
Breadth45%
Members176
Country
🇦🇺 Australia · AU
Sector
Basic Materials
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
0.1%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
75%
Positive regime, horizons divided
Participation
45%
80 advancing, 66 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
35
Breadth
43
Persistence
45
Relative
69
Risk quality
63
What supports the view
- Relative performance is improving within its parent hierarchy.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 48 percentage points.
- The index is extended well above current Fair Value, increasing chase risk.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width3.63%
Fast versus slow change9.28 pts
Above 33%
Below 33%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreement
Positive regime, horizons divided
The 52-week trend is positive, although not every measured horizon confirms it.
13-week
2.1%
26-week
-18.6%
39-week
0.2%
52-week
21.5%
Constituent trend persistence
94% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
58%positive
Coherent positive13%
Coherent negative25%
Average horizon agreement75%
Positive horizon share40%
Weakening positives29
Repairing negatives13
166 constituents measured as of 28 Aug 2026. Median trend age is 16 weeks.
Custom stage map
93% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
60%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing15%24 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing12%19 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution14%22 securities
Stage 4 · Declining60%98 securities
Re-acceleration watch2
Transition watch11
Relative strength leaders23%
Fair Value repairs8
Measured as of 28 Aug 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
75/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Basic Materials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Basic Materials. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index156.4
13-week trend149.5
4-week trend change1.29%
Weekly peer rank4 of 11
1 week
0.0 pts
relative
4 weeks
6.2 pts
relative
13 weeks
6.2 pts
relative
26 weeks
-1.1 pts
relative
52 weeks
8.5 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Balanced
Participation quality
45%
advanced
- Advancing
- 80
- Declining
- 66
- Unchanged
- 30
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility31.9%
Drawdown from 52-week high-18.8%
Positive weeks, last 1354%
Current directional run4 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm241%
Breadth impulse6.4 pts
Cross-section
176 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -3.3%
Median 0.0%
Q3 5.9%
Average winner10.0%
Average loser-7.0%
Dispersion12.1 pts
Top-five upside share31%
Top-five capital share73%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 176 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 176 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.