Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
36
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 18 September 2026
China CN Basic Materials Industry
Agricultural Inputs
For the week ending 18 September 2026, Agricultural Inputs declined 2.13% with 9 advancing, 46 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
36
technical evidence
Index1627.57
1 week-2.13%
Breadth16%
Members56
Country
🇨🇳 China · CN
Sector
Basic Materials
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
7 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-4.9%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
75%
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
Participation
16%
9 advancing, 46 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
34
Breadth
32
Persistence
36
Relative
23
Risk quality
70
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 66 percentage points.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age7 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width4.15%
Fast versus slow change5.46 pts
Above 33%
Below 0%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreement
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
The long trend remains negative, but shorter-horizon repair is now visible.
13-week
6.8%
26-week
-12.4%
39-week
-2.7%
52-week
-4.9%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
30%positive
Coherent positive5%
Coherent negative14%
Average horizon agreement73%
Positive horizon share36%
Weakening positives6
Repairing negatives26
56 constituents measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 17 weeks.
Custom stage map
98% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
75%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing11%6 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing9%5 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution6%3 securities
Stage 4 · Declining75%41 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch14
Relative strength leaders25%
Fair Value repairs2
Measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
68/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Basic Materials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Basic Materials. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index81.3
13-week trend80.1
4-week trend change3.21%
Weekly peer rank12 of 13
1 week
-4.0 pts
relative
4 weeks
0.4 pts
relative
13 weeks
12.3 pts
relative
26 weeks
-9.4 pts
relative
52 weeks
-12.3 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
16%
advanced
- Advancing
- 9
- Declining
- 46
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility27.4%
Drawdown from 52-week high-22.3%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run3 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm173%
Breadth impulse-34.8 pts
Cross-section
56 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -4.1%
Median -2.8%
Q3 -1.1%
Average winner4.8%
Average loser-3.5%
Dispersion4.2 pts
Top-five upside share94%
Top-five capital share47%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 56 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 56 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
47
000893
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd.
SHZ
44.73B
39.77
-0.09 pts
-4.86%
49
002999
Guangdong Tianhe Agricultural Means of Production Co., Ltd.
SHZ
2.28B
6.28
-0.09 pts
-4.99%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.