Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
39
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 4 September 2026
China CN Real Estate Industry
Real Estate - Development
For the week ending 04 September 2026, Real Estate - Development declined 0.33% with 30 advancing, 43 declining, and 2 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
39
technical evidence
Index937.18
1 week-0.33%
Breadth40%
Members75
Country
🇨🇳 China · CN
Sector
Real Estate
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
4 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-2.8%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
40%
30 advancing, 43 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
34
Breadth
43
Persistence
13
Relative
49
Risk quality
78
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 72 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age4 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width2.63%
Fast versus slow change5.71 pts
Above 33%
Below 0%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-2.9%
26-week
-10.3%
39-week
-11.1%
52-week
-5.6%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
17%positive
Coherent positive5%
Coherent negative51%
Average horizon agreement85%
Positive horizon share19%
Weakening positives6
Repairing negatives16
75 constituents measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 14 weeks.
Custom stage map
100% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
79%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing8%6 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing7%5 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution7%5 securities
Stage 4 · Declining79%59 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch17
Relative strength leaders13%
Fair Value repairs5
Measured as of 4 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
69/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Real Estate
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Real Estate. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index95.7
13-week trend96.2
4-week trend change0.04%
Weekly peer rank2 of 3
1 week
0.0 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.8 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.6 pts
relative
26 weeks
-0.1 pts
relative
52 weeks
-1.2 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
40%
advanced
- Advancing
- 30
- Declining
- 43
- Unchanged
- 2
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility21.6%
Drawdown from 52-week high-15.6%
Positive weeks, last 1346%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm284%
Breadth impulse-5.7 pts
Cross-section
75 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -2.4%
Median -0.7%
Q3 1.1%
Average winner3.9%
Average loser-3.2%
Dispersion5.5 pts
Top-five upside share60%
Top-five capital share34%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 75 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 75 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
18
600663
Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.,Ltd.
SHH
45.77B
9.09
0.02 pts
1.22%
22
600639
Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.,Ltd
SHH
10.75B
9.58
0.01 pts
1.05%
26
600266
Beijing Urban Construction Investment & Development Co., Ltd.
SHH
8.93B
4.30
0.01 pts
0.70%
33
900932
Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.,Ltd.
SHH
4.69B
0.386
0.00 pts
-0.26%
47
900911
Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development Co.,Ltd
SHH
773.34M
0.687
-0.02 pts
-1.29%
59
001979
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd.
SHZ
62.84B
6.97
-0.04 pts
-2.65%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.