The weight of trend, participation and relative evidence favours capital protection over new exposure.
32
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 18 September 2026
Hong Kong HK Consumer Cyclical Industry
Leisure
For the week ending 18 September 2026, Leisure declined 0.22% with 11 advancing, 17 declining, and 2 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
32
technical evidence
Index702.43
1 week-0.22%
Breadth37%
Members30
Country
🇭🇰 Hong Kong · HK
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
6 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-8.1%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
37%
11 advancing, 17 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Defensive
Five-pillar map
Trend
22
Breadth
37
Persistence
28
Relative
17
Risk quality
76
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 40 percentage points.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
State age6 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width5.01%
Fast versus slow change-0.16 pts
Above 0%
Below 100%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-5.0%
26-week
-11.7%
39-week
-15.0%
52-week
-27.7%
Constituent trend persistence
93% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
21%positive
Coherent positive11%
Coherent negative32%
Average horizon agreement78%
Positive horizon share34%
Weakening positives2
Repairing negatives10
28 constituents measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 26 weeks.
Custom stage map
90% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
59%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing19%5 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing19%5 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution4%1 securities
Stage 4 · Declining59%16 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch2
Relative strength leaders22%
Fair Value repairs4
Measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
78/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Consumer Cyclical. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index89.5
13-week trend93.3
4-week trend change-1.34%
Weekly peer rank18 of 21
1 week
-1.4 pts
relative
4 weeks
-2.5 pts
relative
13 weeks
-3.9 pts
relative
26 weeks
-4.2 pts
relative
52 weeks
-15.6 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
37%
advanced
- Advancing
- 11
- Declining
- 17
- Unchanged
- 2
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility11.1%
Drawdown from 52-week high-25.4%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm95%
Breadth impulse0.3 pts
Cross-section
30 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -2.8%
Median -1.2%
Q3 1.6%
Average winner6.2%
Average loser-4.2%
Dispersion7.5 pts
Top-five upside share85%
Top-five capital share96%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 30 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 30 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
14
0664
Hangzhou Tongshifu Cultural and Creative (Group) Co., Ltd.
HKG
798.64M
12.48
-0.01 pts
-0.16%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.