Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
46
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 18 September 2026
Indonesia ID Consumer Cyclical Industry
Department Stores
For the week ending 18 September 2026, Department Stores declined 0.11% with 3 advancing, 5 declining, and 0 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Balance
Directional pressure is compressed and neither side has durable control.
46
technical evidence
Index639.52
1 week-0.11%
Breadth38%
Members8
Country
🇮🇩 Indonesia · ID
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Balance
2 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-1.3%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
50%
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
Participation
38%
3 advancing, 5 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
39
Breadth
43
Persistence
51
Relative
43
Risk quality
71
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 26 percentage points.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
Directional pressure is compressed and neither side has durable control.
State age2 weeks
Trend gateMixed
Fan width0.89%
Fast versus slow change-1.10 pts
Above 33%
Below 33%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
50% agreement
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
The long trend remains negative, but shorter-horizon repair is now visible.
13-week
1.4%
26-week
0.6%
39-week
-9.5%
52-week
-10.2%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
38%positive
Coherent positive12%
Coherent negative0%
Average horizon agreement69%
Positive horizon share53%
Weakening positives1
Repairing negatives5
8 constituents measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 17 weeks.
Custom stage map
100% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
38%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing25%2 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing13%1 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution25%2 securities
Stage 4 · Declining38%3 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch2
Relative strength leaders25%
Fair Value repairs2
Measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
73/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Consumer Cyclical. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index61.3
13-week trend66.1
4-week trend change-2.50%
Weekly peer rank4 of 15
1 week
0.8 pts
relative
4 weeks
-7.4 pts
relative
13 weeks
-9.1 pts
relative
26 weeks
-5.2 pts
relative
52 weeks
-18.3 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
38%
advanced
- Advancing
- 3
- Declining
- 5
- Unchanged
- 0
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility25.4%
Drawdown from 52-week high-22.0%
Positive weeks, last 1354%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm184%
Breadth impulse-12.5 pts
Cross-section
8 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -2.6%
Median -1.2%
Q3 0.7%
Average winner4.6%
Average loser-2.9%
Dispersion5.1 pts
Top-five upside share100%
Top-five capital share94%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 8 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 8 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.