Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
44
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 14 August 2026
Taiwan TW Consumer Cyclical Industry
Specialty Retail
For the week ending 14 August 2026, Specialty Retail advanced 0.08% with 4 advancing, 1 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
44
technical evidence
Index1177.17
1 week0.08%
Breadth67%
Members6
Country
🇹🇼 Taiwan · TW
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
9 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-3.0%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
75%
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
Participation
67%
4 advancing, 1 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
38
Breadth
53
Persistence
33
Relative
23
Risk quality
89
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age9 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width1.18%
Fast versus slow change0.48 pts
Above 0%
Below 50%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreement
Negative regime, shorter trend repairing
The long trend remains negative, but shorter-horizon repair is now visible.
13-week
1.4%
26-week
-5.4%
39-week
-10.7%
52-week
-14.1%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
17%positive
Coherent positive0%
Coherent negative17%
Average horizon agreement58%
Positive horizon share50%
Weakening positives1
Repairing negatives4
6 constituents measured as of 14 Aug 2026. Median trend age is 64 weeks.
Custom stage map
Where constituents sit in the cycle
Stage Analysis coverage is still building.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Consumer Cyclical. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index75.7
13-week trend76.4
4-week trend change-1.36%
Weekly peer rank9 of 12
1 week
-0.5 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.8 pts
relative
13 weeks
-5.6 pts
relative
26 weeks
-5.8 pts
relative
52 weeks
-12.0 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Broad
Participation quality
67%
advanced
- Advancing
- 4
- Declining
- 1
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility9.2%
Drawdown from 52-week high-14.0%
Positive weeks, last 1354%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm77%
Breadth impulse29.2 pts
Cross-section
6 measured
Return distribution
Q1 0.1%
Median 0.5%
Q3 0.7%
Average winner0.9%
Average loser-3.1%
Dispersion1.6 pts
Top-five upside share100%
Top-five capital share99%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 6 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 6 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.