Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
40
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Consumer Cyclical
For the week ending 25 September 2026, Consumer Cyclical declined 0.07% with 116 advancing, 174 declining, and 17 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 1,423.09 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- -0.07%
- Measured companies
- 307 307 in the index universe
- Weekly breadth
- 116 up / 174 down 17 unchanged
- Weekly peer rank
- 6 of 11
Universe country-listed · Equity onlyPrice basis Adjusted weekly closeConstruction Capped equal-weight returns · Weekly rebuild
156 completed weeks
Consumer Cyclical price and trend
Current architecture
Balance
5 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-0.9%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
38%
116 advancing, 174 declining
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
43
Breadth
29
Persistence
31
Relative
31
Risk quality
94
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 52 percentage points.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
Directional pressure is compressed and neither side has durable control.
State age5 weeks
Trend gateMixed
Fan width0.74%
Fast versus slow change-0.64 pts
Above 33%
Below 50%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-0.5%
26-week
-0.3%
39-week
-3.4%
52-week
-6.2%
Constituent trend persistence
42% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
34%positive
Coherent positive12%
Coherent negative40%
Average horizon agreement83%
Positive horizon share36%
Weakening positives14
Repairing negatives18
129 constituents measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 25 weeks.
Custom stage map
100% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
56%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing24%74 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing4%11 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution17%51 securities
Stage 4 · Declining56%170 securities
Re-acceleration watch2
Transition watch58
Relative strength leaders2%
Fair Value repairs58
Measured as of 25 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
74/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to TW Market Structure
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
The relative index starts at 100. Above 100 means this group has outperformed TW Market Structure since the first plotted date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line can show relative improvement even when both markets are falling.
Relative index68.9
13-week trend70.7
4-week trend change0.23%
Weekly peer rank6 of 11
1 week
-0.5 pts
relative
4 weeks
-2.3 pts
relative
13 weeks
-0.5 pts
relative
26 weeks
-9.3 pts
relative
52 weeks
-19.2 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
38%
advanced
- Advancing
- 116
- Declining
- 174
- Unchanged
- 17
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility8.6%
Drawdown from 52-week high-5.6%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm65%
Breadth impulse-5.2 pts
Cross-section
307 measured
Return distribution
8Below −5%3%
94−5% to −1%31%
145−1% to +1%47%
50+1% to +5%16%
10Above +5%3%
Weekly returns across measured companies. Bars are scaled to the largest group; percentages show each group’s share.
Q1 -1.4%
Median -0.3%
Q3 0.7%
Average winner2.4%
Average loser-1.7%
Dispersion3.5 pts
Top-five upside share34%
Top-five capital share45%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week price change
Index price change over 30 weeks, or the available history if shorter. Green above zero; red below.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Industry map
Where sector leadership is forming
Performance, breadth and trend acceptance across every qualified industry.
4/16
positive
Above Trend Line4/1625% of industries
Constructive breadth1/16At least half advancing
Median industry-0.52%1.34 pts dispersion
#1
Transition
Auto Parts
1.30%
Participation46%
vs Trend0.7%
vs Fair Value-5.8%
Members61
#2
Narrowing
Specialty Retail
1.05%
Participation40%
vs Trend3.2%
vs Fair Value-6.5%
Members15
#3
Transition
Lodging
0.57%
Participation31%
vs Trend-0.5%
vs Fair Value-19.7%
Members13
#4
Transition
Apparel Manufacturing
0.41%
Participation40%
vs Trend-0.5%
vs Fair Value-11.5%
Members15
#5
Weakening
Travel Services
-0.01%
Participation56%
vs Trend-7.9%
vs Fair Value-23.7%
Members9
#6
Weakening
Textile Manufacturing
-0.22%
Participation45%
vs Trend-0.6%
vs Fair Value0.1%
Members56
#7
Contracting
Restaurants
-0.33%
Participation46%
vs Trend-4.1%
vs Fair Value-24.5%
Members26
#8
Narrowing
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
-0.47%
Participation30%
vs Trend3.0%
vs Fair Value4.6%
Members27
#9
Contracting
Leisure
-0.57%
Participation38%
vs Trend-1.2%
vs Fair Value-14.9%
Members26
#10
Narrowing
Department Stores
-0.72%
Participation33%
vs Trend1.2%
vs Fair Value-4.0%
Members9
#11
Weakening
Packaging & Containers
-0.74%
Participation25%
vs Trend-3.3%
vs Fair Value10.0%
Members12
#12
Contracting
Resorts & Casinos
-0.86%
Participation0%
vs Trend-10.6%
vs Fair Value-34.8%
Members4
#13
Contracting
Footwear & Accessories
-1.01%
Participation27%
vs Trend-8.6%
vs Fair Value-23.3%
Members11
#14
Contracting
Internet Retail
-1.42%
Participation40%
vs Trend-0.4%
vs Fair Value-0.7%
Members5
#15
Contracting
Auto Manufacturers
-1.56%
Participation0%
vs Trend-0.1%
vs Fair Value-24.3%
Members6
#16
Contracting
Recreational Vehicles
-4.80%
Participation0%
vs Trend-8.9%
vs Fair Value-17.3%
Members3
Industry participation
Where are returns broadly supported?
Compare the weekly result with the share of companies advancing.
↑ Companies advancing · 50% marks half of measured companies
−4.8%Weekly index return · zero at centre+4.8%
Compare return with participationHover or focus a marker for the full reading. Select it to open the report.
Markers show weekly return rank. Hover or focus for the name. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions. Up, down and unchanged companies all count in participation.
Taiwan · Weekly return relationships
Which markets move together?
Compare sectors and industries within Taiwan over the same 52-week window. Strong positive relationships can mean that apparently different holdings share the same risk.
Closest: Technology and Industrials (0.94; 51 weeks).
11 indexes · 55 qualifying pairsClosest: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment & Materials (0.94; 51 weeks).
87 indexes · 3741 qualifying pairs−1 · Opposite0 · No linear link+1 · Together
Read the market at the top against the market at the left. The diagonal compares each index with itself. Up to 10 indexes are shown, ordered by constituent coverage. Select a cell to inspect a pair, or use the selectors for other markets.
Closest to the reference
Pearson correlation of weekly percentage returns through 25 Sep 2026: +1 means moving together, 0 little linear relationship, −1 moving in opposite directions. Requires 39 matching observations for the 52-week comparison and 10 for the recent 13 weeks. Missing weeks are excluded, not filled with zero. Constant series have no defined correlation. These are local-currency, capped equal-weight indexes; sectors and their component industries overlap. A lower correlation does not establish a hedge.
Sector correlations compare broad business groups. Industry correlations reveal closer links within and across sectors. The selectors retain all qualified groups; the matrix shows the ten largest by company coverage.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 307 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Sector constituents
Top 100 of 307 shown, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.