Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
35
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 14 August 2026
Taiwan TW Sector
Consumer Defensive
For the week ending 14 August 2026, Consumer Defensive declined 1.25% with 12 advancing, 28 declining, and 2 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and built from country-listed equities.
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
35
technical evidence
Index1207.84
1 week-1.25%
Breadth29%
Members42
Country
🇹🇼 Taiwan · TW
Universe
country-listed
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
1 completed week in this state
Trend acceptance
-4.0%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
100%
Negative across every horizon
Participation
29%
12 advancing, 28 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
30
Breadth
41
Persistence
32
Relative
5
Risk quality
89
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
State age1 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width1.64%
Fast versus slow change0.23 pts
Above 0%
Below 50%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
100% agreement
Negative across every horizon
The 13, 26, 39 and 52-week trends all point downward, confirming persistent contraction.
13-week
-1.3%
26-week
-7.7%
39-week
-9.4%
52-week
-12.3%
Constituent trend persistence
98% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
32%positive
Coherent positive17%
Coherent negative39%
Average horizon agreement86%
Positive horizon share35%
Weakening positives2
Repairing negatives11
41 constituents measured as of 14 Aug 2026. Median trend age is 36 weeks.
Custom stage map
Where constituents sit in the cycle
Stage Analysis coverage is still building.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to TW Market Structure
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than TW Market Structure. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index61.8
13-week trend62.6
4-week trend change-1.66%
Weekly peer rank10 of 11
1 week
-2.9 pts
relative
4 weeks
-3.8 pts
relative
13 weeks
-7.1 pts
relative
26 weeks
-21.9 pts
relative
52 weeks
-34.0 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
29%
advanced
- Advancing
- 12
- Declining
- 28
- Unchanged
- 2
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility7.8%
Drawdown from 52-week high-12.6%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm62%
Breadth impulse-15.9 pts
Cross-section
42 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -2.8%
Median -1.0%
Q3 0.4%
Average winner1.4%
Average loser-2.5%
Dispersion2.3 pts
Top-five upside share69%
Top-five capital share78%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Industry map
Where sector leadership is forming
Performance, breadth and trend acceptance across every qualified industry.
0/4
positive
Above Trend Line0/40% of industries
Constructive breadth2/4At least half advancing
Median industry-0.97%0.46 pts dispersion
#1
Weakening
Farm Products
-0.30%
Participation50%
vs Trend-4.5%
vs Fair Value-24.0%
Members4
#2
Weakening
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
-0.67%
Participation67%
vs Trend-2.3%
vs Fair Value-4.2%
Members3
#3
Contracting
Household & Personal Products
-1.26%
Participation21%
vs Trend-4.1%
vs Fair Value-14.1%
Members14
#4
Contracting
Packaged Foods
-1.44%
Participation29%
vs Trend-4.9%
vs Fair Value-11.9%
Members17
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 42 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Sector constituents
All 42 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.