260 completed weekly observations ยท 25 Sep 2026

ASX ยท Equity ยท technical research

TLS Technicals

Telstra Group Limited

Communication Services ยท Telecom Services

Aligned downwardPrice-technical state

Week ending25 September 2026
-1.6%
Open
4.85
High
4.86
Low
4.75
Close
4.78 AUD
Open chart Market Dynamics Report โ†—
Research for TLS
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Price structureAligned downwardcompleted-week alignment
Momentum44.4Negative
Risk pressure3.1%Normal
Trend quality25.8Directional
Range position22%location inside observed range
Adaptive set6 viewsselected for the current tape

01 ยท Market Dynamics

Price and underlying support

Weekly close ยท published Market Dynamics
Improving Market Dynamics is challenging the downward price structure

Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price structure remains downward.

Preparing Market Dynamics chart Checking the chart library, completed-week data and display size.
Weekly close Supportive Market Dynamics Cautious Market Dynamics Accumulation zone Distribution zone Positioning recovery Reversal warning Reversal danger
Current tape relationship
Underlying pressure is repairing

Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero.

Price location
Between zones

Price is travelling between the two major positioning zones.

Latest positioning marker
12 Jul 2024

The green dot marks a confirmed recovery where institutional positioning is most plausible.

Market Dynamics confirmation
Repairing

Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path.

Chart contextPrice is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.

InterpretationThis is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.

Reading the zones and markers

The line shows completed weekly price. Market Dynamics describes the underlying support. Green marks a recovery through the accumulation zone; amber and red identify reversal warnings and danger. Price can stay in the distribution zone while advancing. Read the zones, markers and Market Dynamics together; they do not identify individual trades or prove who is participating.

02 ยท Technical indicators

The price move needs stronger confirmation.

6 selected views ยท 156 observations

Price is below both trend references. Trend strength supports a persistent move. Market Dynamics is not fully confirming the price structure; compare both readings before treating the move as broadly supported.

Fast trend reference 4.82 AUDClose -0.8%Slow trend reference 4.92 AUDClose -2.8%Selection adapts to the setup and available history.

Structure

Price and trend

Price4.78

Aligned downward. Price anchors every interpretation against the same completed observations.

Watch Watch whether price holds its trend references or begins to cross back through them.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.

Close
4.78
Fast trend
4.82
Slow trend
4.92
Upper envelope
5.39
Lower envelope
4.51

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Structure

Trend strength and direction

Trend strength25.76

Directional trend. Trend strength helps decide how much weight to put on momentum extremes.

Watch Strength measures persistence, not direction. Compare positive and negative control before interpreting it.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.

Trend strength
25.76
Positive direction
24.65
Negative direction
33.66

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Momentum

Momentum

Momentum44.35

Negative pressure. Momentum helps test whether the latest price direction has follow-through.

Watch Watch for pressure to turn with price. A stretched reading alone does not establish a reversal.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Two independent momentum views show whether pressure is broadening, fading or stretched.

Momentum
44.35
Rotation
34.92
Rotation signal
41.15

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Risk

Drawdown and recovery

Drawdown-11.81%

Recovery still incomplete. Distance below the observed high separates recovery from an established new high.

Watch A recovery can improve while price remains below its former high. Track both parts of the path.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.

Drawdown
-11.81
Recovery
3.69

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Leadership

Relative strength

Relative strength-2.11

Lagging the benchmark. Benchmark context tests whether the move is company leadership or broader market participation.

Watch Watch whether relative strength confirms the absolute trend or continues to disagree.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.

Relative strength
-2.11

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Participation

Volume participation

Activity / norm149.14

Above normal activity. Activity tests the participation behind price; it does not identify who is buying or selling.

Watch Look for sustained participation in the direction of price, rather than a single busy observation.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.

Activity versus norm
149.14
Cumulative balance
131.34

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

More indicators3 additional views from the same history

Momentum

Momentum change

Impulse expansion-0.02

Negative impulse, strengthening. Acceleration can reveal a change before the broader price structure fully responds.

Watch A return through the neutral line deserves attention when trend and participation also change.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.

Impulse
-0.0813
Signal
-0.0611
Expansion
-0.0201

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Structure

Position in the recent range

Range position21.57%

Inside the recent range. Range location is especially useful when a trend is not yet firmly established.

Watch Look for acceptance outside the range or a return toward its middle, supported by momentum.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.

Range position
21.57
From high
-14.34
From low
4.82

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

Risk

Range and volatility

Range pressure3.11%

Ordinary variability. Recent variability puts the size of price moves and reference gaps in context.

Watch Watch whether a range expansion gains directional follow-through or quickly reverses.

Values and chart guide ยท 2026-09-25

Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.

Range pressure
3.11
Envelope width
17.81

Available history begins 2023-10-06. Missing observations remain gaps.

03 ยท Scenarios

Conditions to monitor

Possible developments ยท no assigned probabilities
Continuation

The decline retains control

Price remains below its trend references, downward momentum persists and relative strength fails to repair. Check whether Market Dynamics continues to support that direction.

Early repair

A rebound begins to gain support

Momentum improves and price regains the fast trend reference. A rebound alone does not establish a durable change; compare the slower reference and Market Dynamics.

Challenge the view

The downward structure is displaced

Price recovers its trend references while momentum and leadership improve. Reassess the bearish structure as completed observations confirm the repair.

Sharemaestro tape intelligence

SM gauge assessment

One assessment resolves price structure and Market Dynamics. The supporting views show the control, force, direction and confidence behind it.

100/100 evidence depth
observed participation included
Joint downward confirmation The gauges support the downward market view

Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.

SM Consensus Gauge-27.5

Joint downward confirmation

SM Control Gauge-34.6

Seller control supports the view

SM Force Gauge-52.4

Downward commitment

SM Direction Gauge-1.7

Follow-through is limited

SM Confirmation Gauge63/100

Qualified support

SM consensus path ยท Market Dynamics display window

SM Consensus Gauge against price

The bars show the direction and strength of the resolved assessment. Completed price is retained as context.

Latest -27.5
Joint downward confirmation
Supportive consensus Cautious consensus Weekly close Neutral

Control

SM Control Gauge

Shows whether buyer or seller control supports the current assessment and whether that support is strengthening or easing.

Current controlSeller control supports the viewRecent pathBroadly stableLatest 12 months
Buyer controlSeller controlBalanced

Commitment

SM Force Gauge

Shows the strength of market commitment behind the current assessment.

Current forceDownward commitmentRecent pathCommitment is strengtheningLatest 12 months
Positive forceNegative forceActivity intensity

Direction and follow-through

SM Direction Gauge

Shows the directional follow-through behind the current assessment and whether it is established or still developing.

Current directionFollow-through is limitedFollow-throughUnsettledLatest 12 months
Advancing directionDeclining directionFollow-through

Assessment strength

SM Confirmation Gauge

Shows how firmly the current assessment is supported. Greater assessment risk reduces the weight of the conclusion.

ConfirmationQualified supportAssessment riskPresentLatest 12 months
SM Confirmation GaugeAssessment risk

05 ยท Historical record

Evidence from previous conditions

Completed cases ยท open cases excluded from outcomes

TLS ยท current evidence

Current conditions

The downside structure remains in place, but improving Market Dynamics weakens that case. A positive price response is needed to confirm the repair.

1
NowStronger this week

Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero.

2
Recent directionStrengthened over four weeks

Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path.

3
Price responsePrice remains in a downward structure

Improving Market Dynamics has not yet produced a positive price response.

4
Previous casesRecord building
What strengthens this viewThis is an early challenge rather than a confirmed reversal. Price must respond to the improvement before the downward technical state can be considered resolved.What would change itReassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.

Completed observations

Historical comparisons

Zone visits are counted once and followed through completed weekly closes. Open cases remain separate.

Price relationship Meaningful relationship
Same-week correlation
0.32
Direction agreed
51.8%
Completed comparisons
251
After accumulation6 distinct visits
4 weeks66.7% higher6 outcomes 12 weeks50.0% higher6 outcomes 26 weeks66.7% higher6 outcomes

Average time before leaving the zone: 3.8 weeks.

After distribution3 distinct visits
4 weeks66.7% lower3 outcomes 12 weeks66.7% lower3 outcomes 26 weeks100.0% lower1 outcome

Average time before leaving the zone: 5.3 weeks.

When the two readings agreed or differed

Completed outcomes by condition

These cases compare price direction with Market Dynamics and show how large disagreements were resolved.

Price higher ยท Market Dynamics positive 52.9% were higher

Average 12-week move: 0.4% from 17 completed cases.

Price lower ยท Market Dynamics negative 23.5% were lower

Average 12-week move: 3.2% from 17 completed cases.

Price higher ยท Market Dynamics cautious Average pullback 2.6%

38.9% were lower after 12 weeks. The deepest pullback arrived after 5.7 weeks on average.

Price cautious ยท Market Dynamics positive Average recovery 3.5%

60.0% were higher after 12 weeks. The strongest recovery arrived after 6.4 weeks on average.

How to use the reading

Strategy observations from this ticker's own record

The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.

Zone positioning
Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation

After accumulation, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.

ApproachBuild the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.

Review the case whenA failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure.

Disagreement playbook
Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline

Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 2.6% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.7 weeks on average.

ApproachAvoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.

Review the case whenThe warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way.

Historical outcomes describe this ticker's completed record. They do not make the next move certain and are not trading instructions.

Readings describe completed observations. A strong reading is not a forecast, and historical outcomes are not probabilities for the next move. The full record, related research and technical pack remain available for closer review.

Technical research pack โ†—

Evidence context