MEXEquity · Weekly research terminal

MARA Adaptive Price Envelope, Trend & Confirmation

MARA Holdings, Inc.

MX Financial Services Capital Markets

Latest week
28 Aug 2026
Chart Console
Weekly close
182.34 MXN
Daily Perspective
Fair value
284.90 MXN
Next-week expectancy
Undecided 49.11%
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Weekly Chart Pack Completed weekly market data · Independent research

MEX · Equity · Mexico

MARA

MARA Holdings, Inc.

Financial Services Capital Markets

MARA Holdings, Inc. operates as an energy and digital infrastructure company in North America, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. The company leverages Bitcoin Mining and Artificial Intelligence compute to monetize excess energy and underutilized power, optimize power management across operations and support AI inference applications. The company was formerly known as Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MARA Holdings, Inc. in August 2024. MARA Holdings, Inc. was …

Last updated
28 Aug 2026
Exchange
Mexican Stock Exchange · MEX
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Capital Markets
Currency
MXN
Market capitalisation
100,045,373,440
Fair value reference
284.90
Next-week expectancy
Undecided · 49.11%
Executive chart read

Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-08-28, MARA fell 24.36%, moving from 241.05 to 182.34. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 9 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -16.19 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.47 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 49.11% based on similar historical setup states.

Week Ending
28 Aug 2026
Latest Close
182.34
12-Week Change
-24.36%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 49.11%
Signal Weeks
9 of 12

Adaptive Price Envelope

Price, volatility and confirmation

Adaptive Price Envelope APE

See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.

Current completed-week read · 2026-08-28

Price is testing the lower adaptive boundary

Lower-envelope pressure is established. The important distinction is whether price repairs back inside the envelope or continues lower with confirming evidence.

Position
5%
Testing the lower envelope
Pressure
-65
Cautious
Confirmation
100%
Broad confirmation
Weekly close Adaptive centre Adaptive boundaries Current envelope
Underlying support

Market Dynamics context

Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.

Supportive Market Dynamics Cautious Market Dynamics Neutral line
APE and support read

Market Dynamics confirms lower-envelope pressure

Underlying support is cautious while price is on the lower side of APE. Repair would require price and Market Dynamics to improve together.

Current reading
-0.47
Four-week change
-0.33
Current path
Weakening
Confirmation checks

What supports or challenges the current read

A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.

Envelope path Cautious 5% of the envelope

Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.

Trend Line Cautious Below and falling

Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.

Market Dynamics Cautious -0.47 · -0.33 over 4 weeks

Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.

Relative strength Cautious -16.2 · -0.1 over 4 weeks

Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.

Participation Cautious 5.62× recent volume

Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.

Completed-week analysis

How to interpret this envelope now

Price position

Testing the lower envelope

The latest close sits at 5% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 2 completed weeks.

Envelope width

Envelope width is compressed

Current width ranks at the 20th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.

Evidence agreement

Broad confirmation

100% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.

What to watch next

Persistence, repair or rejection

Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (221.27), upper boundary (264.82) and lower boundary (177.73).

Recent completed events

What changed around the envelope

Lower repair

Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.

Lower-envelope break

Price closed beneath the adaptive lower boundary.

Lower repair

Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.

Lower-envelope break

Price closed beneath the adaptive lower boundary.

Upper re-entry

Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.

Compression release

The envelope began expanding after an unusually compressed period.

Chart Summary

Key Points

Week Ending
28 Aug 2026
Latest Close
182.34
12-Week Change
-24.36%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 49.11%
Signal Weeks
9 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Below
Relative Strength
-16.19
Market Dynamics
-0.47

Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-08-28, MARA fell 24.36%, moving from 241.05 to 182.34. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 9 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -16.19 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.47 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 49.11% based on similar historical setup states.

Industry Peers

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Understanding the completed-week range

Adaptive Price Envelope

APE places completed weekly price inside upper and lower boundaries that adjust as direction and market variability change. The centre follows persistent moves more closely and slows when price becomes less efficient.

How to read it

Start with price position, then check the direction of the adaptive centre and the confirmation cards. Time spent near a boundary is more meaningful than one isolated touch. A move back inside the envelope can show repair or rejection.

What the confirmation score means

The score summarises whether the available Trend Line, Market Dynamics, relative-strength and participation readings agree with the current envelope pressure. It does not change the boundaries or turn them into an automatic signal.

What it is not

APE is not a forecast, price target, trading instruction or guarantee that price will reverse at a boundary. It is a structured way to compare price, variability and wider completed-week evidence.

Next-week expectancy

Next-week expectancy is a short-term historical read. It compares the latest completed-week setup with broadly similar past setups and asks whether the following week tended to close higher or lower.

It is not a trend call, a price target, or a guarantee. A positive read can appear while price is below trend or activity pressure is weak, because it is measuring short-term follow-through odds for the current setup state.

Use it as one context layer beside Trend Line, Relative Strength, Market Dynamics, Fair Value, and the visible price structure.

Understanding the evidence

Smart Money

Smart Money is Sharemaestro’s proprietary completed-week view of whether the support beneath price is constructive, weakening, rebuilding or carrying increased reversal risk.

How to read the chart

Start with the current reading and trend quality. Then use the momentum path, coloured trend line, cycle ribbon and event markers to see whether the evidence agrees or conflicts.

What the markers mean

Positive markers identify completed-week accumulation or Smart Money events. Warning markers identify a loss of demand support, reversal risk or reversal danger. A marker records a change in evidence; it does not predict the next price.

What it is not

Smart Money is not a forecast, price target, transaction feed or standalone buy or sell instruction. It is most useful when its direction and trend quality agree with the visible price structure.

Understanding market perception

Price Cycle

Price Cycle is Sharemaestro’s proprietary completed-week view of how strongly price is pressing above or below its established market position.

How to read it

Start with market position, then read direction and trend quality. Positive pressure can strengthen or cool; negative pressure can deteriorate or begin repairing. Persistence shows whether the current state is established or newly developing.

Full-height dotted guides mark completed crossovers through balance: green for a move into positive pressure and red for a move into negative pressure. The coloured area between them shows the resulting market-perception zone.

How to use the historical context

Historical position shows how unusual the latest reading is for this market. Comparable observations summarise what followed similar completed states, but they are descriptive evidence rather than a forecast.

What a Price Action signal means

A Price Action signal marks a completed confirmation event from a weak market-perception position. It records a change in evidence, not a forecast or instruction.

What it is not

Price Cycle is not an order-flow feed, valuation target, prediction or standalone instruction to buy or sell. It describes completed price pressure and should be considered with the broader Sharemaestro research view.

Understanding the completed weekly tape

Price Action

Price Action explains how a market is behaving against its own completed price history. It brings the weekly candle, trend relationship, structural levels and participation into one clear view.

How to read the chart

Each candle shows a completed week's open, high, low and close. The trend reference provides longer context. Support and resistance mark completed structural areas below and above price, while the lower panel shows whether participation confirmed or contradicted the move.

What the annotations mean

Annotations identify selected completed events such as a trend reclaim, trend loss, high-participation reversal or published Price Action signal. Their arrows point to the exact completed week involved.

New and recently listed markets

When history is limited, the page still explains the current candle and visible structure, while clearly marking longer-term evidence and comparisons as developing. It does not manufacture certainty from an incomplete record.

What it is not

Price Action is not a forecast, price target, live order book or standalone instruction to buy or sell. It is a structured interpretation of completed weekly evidence.

Understanding the chart

What Market Dynamics shows

Market Dynamics shows whether the support beneath a completed price move is strengthening or weakening. Green bars are supportive, red bars are cautious, and the height of each bar shows how forceful the finished reading is.

Read price and the bars together

When price and Market Dynamics strengthen together, the move has broader confirmation. When price rises while Market Dynamics fades, the move is losing support and risk can be building near the upper zone. When price remains weak while Market Dynamics begins to improve, an opportunity may be forming near the lower zone before price has fully responded.

Zones and event markers

The upper and lower zones highlight completed periods where price and underlying support deserve closer attention. Early positioning signals mark improving support near the lower part of the chart. Reversal risk and reversal danger markers highlight increasing disagreement near the upper part. They are observations to investigate, not automatic instructions.

Use the explainer when needed

Turn on Explainer above the chart to label the published event markers. The labels point to the exact completed week and remain off by default so the full chart stays uncluttered.

What it does not show

Market Dynamics is not a forecast, price target or standalone buy or sell signal. Divergence can persist, so the reading should be considered with price structure, trend and the wider research view.

Reading price beside support

The recent price and Market Dynamics relationship

The chart rebases price to the first close in the 12-week view and compares it with the completed Market Dynamics reading. The shaded area draws attention to the latest 4 completed weeks without discarding the earlier context.

Positive divergence

When price remains below its recent baseline or in the lower part of its stored range while Market Dynamics improves, support may be developing before price responds. It becomes stronger evidence only if price subsequently confirms it.

Negative divergence

When price remains elevated while Market Dynamics is weak or deteriorating, price is running ahead of its support. The gap can close through consolidation, weaker price, or renewed improvement in Market Dynamics; an immediate reversal is not assumed.

What it means for MARA

Price weakness is confirmed by Market Dynamics. The readings are aligned on the downside. An improving Market Dynamics line before price stabilises would be the first sign that the relationship is beginning to repair.

Understanding the transition

The zone-to-zone journey

This view asks whether MARA is moving from a confirmed source zone toward the opposite zone. An upward journey runs from accumulation to distribution; the reverse journey runs from distribution to accumulation.

What it means for MARA

No active exit is being measured. The model is waiting for price to leave a confirmed source zone before starting another journey.

Why zone confirmation matters

Time inside a zone separates a brief touch from a more established state. A deeper close can confirm residence sooner; otherwise consecutive completed closes are required.

Reading position and dwell

Where price is in the current journey

Zone-span position normalises the distance from the source-zone boundary to the target-zone boundary. Zero is the source side and 100% is the target side, regardless of whether the journey is upward or downward.

MARA is % across its current no active journey span after 0 completed weeks.

What this is not

Position is not the probability of success, a percentage price return or a price target. It only describes location between the current point-in-time zone boundaries.

Understanding the percentages

Completion and invalidation probability

Completion means the target zone is confirmed before the source zone is reconfirmed. Invalidation means price returns far enough, for long enough, to reconfirm the source zone first.

Current reading for MARA

The model currently assigns % within 12 weeks, % within 26 weeks and % within 52 weeks. The probability of reconfirming the source first within 52 weeks is %.

Why a number can be only 1%

A low completion reading does not mean there is a 1% chance the price rises next week. It means the current combination of path position, age, zone dwell and completed support evidence resembles relatively few historical states that confirmed the target within that horizon before returning to source.

Why the figures may not total 100%

The remainder covers journeys that could remain unresolved beyond the stated horizon. The figures are horizon-specific competing outcomes, not a directional vote on the next completed week.

Reading the transition chart

Where the active journey has travelled

This chart answers one question only: how far has the observed completed-week price path moved from its confirmed starting zone toward the opposite zone?

Zero is the source side and 100% is the opposite target side. The definition is reversed automatically for a distribution-to-accumulation journey, so higher chart values always mean further progress toward the current target.

What it does not show

The line is an observed normalised price position, not a probability and not a forecast. Touching 100% is also not enough on its own: the target zone still requires the stated completed-week confirmation.

Observed ticker history

How earlier transitions resolved

MARA has 2 completed opposite-zone journeys across the latest 156 charted weeks.

What is included

Each visible green path answers one clear question: how did price travel from a confirmed source-zone exit to a confirmed opposite zone? Incomplete journeys and returns to the starting zone are not displayed here.

How to use it

Direction shows whether each successful journey ran from accumulation to distribution or in reverse. Source dwell shows how established the starting state was; time to confirm measures the completed weeks from exit to confirmation; price move describes the observed move over that same interval.

Important limitation

The historical paths use the fixed zones drawn on the current chart, so they are descriptive and visually checkable rather than a point-in-time backtest. The price move is not a trading-strategy return, and the completed examples are not independent model validation.

Latest completed-week context

Evidence influencing the current reading

Market Dynamics describes the latest underlying support reading. 12-week change shows whether that support has strengthened or weakened across the recent completed path.

Trend position % places the close relative to the Trend Line. Volume ratio × compares recent completed participation with its established baseline.

Significance for MARA

These readings help distinguish a price move supported by trend and participation from one that is weakening, stalling or reversing. No single reading determines the journey outcome by itself.

Understanding the evidence

SMI

SMI is Sharemaestro’s proprietary completed-week indicator of underlying market quality. It shows whether the conditions beneath a price move are strong, weak, strengthening or weakening.

How to read it

Read the current level together with its direction, persistence and relationship to price. Agreement with price provides stronger confirmation. Disagreement identifies an area that deserves closer attention.

What it is not

SMI is not a forecast, price target or standalone buy or sell signal. It updates from completed weekly evidence and should be considered alongside the broader Sharemaestro research view.

Current VWAP signals

What it is

A summary of the latest completed-week control reading, the relationship between price and VWAP pressure, and the concentration of current VWAP references.

What it shows

The first visual shows pressure over time. The second compares recent price direction with pressure direction. The third plots the current volume-weighted levels around the latest close.

Why it matters

Agreement supports the current reading. Divergence can show that price is moving without the same change in volume-weighted control. A tight group of levels can create a clearer decision area.

Confirmation and failure levels

What it is

A map of the nearest completed-week levels that would strengthen, test or weaken the current VWAP reading.

What it shows

The current close sits between the nearest support and resistance references. When no price resistance is established, sustained pressure above 60 provides the confirmation test instead.

Why it matters

A completed close and continued acceptance carry more weight than an intraday touch. These are research levels, not automatic entry, exit or stop prices.

Volume-weighted price levels

What it is

The current 13-, 26- and 52-week VWAPs together with the calendar, high-activity, swing and latest earnings anchors when available.

What it shows

Each marker shows a completed-week reference and its distance from the latest close. Closely grouped markers identify concentration; separated markers show a wider structure.

Why it matters

Several rising references below price provide broader support than one isolated level. Several references above price can create layered resistance.

Estimated activity position

What it is

An estimate of where reported activity occurred relative to the latest price across the last 52 completed weeks.

What it shows

The bar divides weighted activity above and below price. The ring shows the share concentrated close to the latest price.

Why it matters

Activity below price may provide a larger cushion; activity above price may represent overhead supply. High near-price congestion can make control less decisive.

This is not transaction-level volume-at-price or holder cost-basis data.

VWAP control comparison

What it is

A completed-week comparison between the ticker's VWAP pressure and its benchmark, sector and industry references.

What it shows

Each small chart plots the ticker and reference over the latest 26 weeks. The final readings show the size and direction of the current gap.

Why it matters

A ticker strengthening while its reference weakens has different relative control from one merely following its group. Sector and industry readings appear only with at least ten aligned constituents.

Historical VWAP outcomes

What it is

A summary of returns after this ticker's earlier completed VWAP reclaims, VWAP losses and states similar to the current one.

What it shows

The range marks typical or observed 13-week outcomes, the centre line marks zero, and the point marks the median. Favourable rates and sample sizes are shown beside the chart.

Why it matters

It shows how this ticker behaved after comparable completed evidence. Small samples and wide ranges reduce confidence. The results describe history and are not a forecast.

Understanding volume-weighted control

VWAP Control

VWAP Control shows where the completed weekly market sits against its important volume-weighted price references, whether those references are rising or falling, and whether trading has been accepted above or below them.

How to read it

Start with current control, then inspect the VWAP stack, acceptance and direction. Several rising VWAPs below price support buyer control. Several falling VWAPs above price support seller control. A first reclaim or loss marks a possible transfer; later acceptance and a successful test provide stronger evidence.

Pressure, stretch and positioning

Pressure combines the finished position, direction, persistence and acceptance readings into a 0–100 research scale. Stretch compares price with its normal completed range around the core VWAP. Positioning pressure estimates where recent weighted activity occurred relative to price; it does not identify individual holders.

Historical outcomes

Event studies describe what followed earlier completed reclaims, losses and comparable control states for this ticker. Small samples are shown plainly and no historical result is treated as a forecast.

What it is not

This is not an intraday execution VWAP, live order-flow feed, transaction-level cost basis, price target or standalone instruction to buy or sell. It uses completed weekly OHLCV history and updates with the weekly chart data.

Evidence context