7976 JPX Week ended 07 Aug 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Mitsubishi Pencil Co., Ltd. · Industrials · Business Equipment & Supplies

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Latest close 2,934 JPY
5.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 17.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.9%, after a 8.8% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.

Setup score 79 out of 100
Latest Close 2,934 JPY 7 Aug 2026
1W Return 5.9% latest completed week
4W Return 8.8% short-term follow-through
12W Return 15.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 75.0% 39 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.3x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 39-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • 2 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
What to watch next
  • Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 5.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 8.8%. Indicator stack 86/80 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 50/100 8 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 17.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 99.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.9%, after a 8.8% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.3x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.9612-week average 0.95

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure12/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.96Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers22 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 2 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 8.8% over four weeks, 15.8% over 12 weeks, and 44.5% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 39 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W5.9%
4W8.8%
12W15.8%
26W25.8%
52W44.5%
Active trend streak39 weeks
Active weeks in one year39
Trend breadth75.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.51Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change36.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.84Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change153.8%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.

Open full factor analysis

No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.

05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 8 relevant articles.

0 positive · 8 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-0.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility3.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher18 of 268 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.7%Week of 27 Feb.
Worst week-6.5%Week of 13 Feb.
Latest week+5.9%Week of 7 Aug.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains7
Modest gains11
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses4
Recent vol3.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.3%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape78/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 78/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis71/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 2/12.

Activity pressure 0.96; 2 reversal markers Factors50/100

No published factor snapshot is available yet.

 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 8 relevant articles.

Mitsubishi Pencil Co Ltd Revenue Breakdown – OTC:MSBPF Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
7 Aug 20262,934 JPY5.9%2,489 JPY2,229 JPY1.514.84889.1KOn
31 Jul 20262,771 JPY6.2%2,465 JPY2,222 JPY1.470.751.1MOn
24 Jul 20262,610 JPY-2.9%2,445 JPY2,215 JPY1.27-5.74413.0KOn
17 Jul 20262,688 JPY-0.3%2,432 JPY2,209 JPY1.41-2.62414.1KOn
10 Jul 20262,696 JPY0.2%2,414 JPY2,201 JPY1.11-8.98651.6KOn
3 Jul 20262,690 JPY1.1%2,397 JPY2,194 JPY0.98-11.1952.6KOn
26 Jun 20262,660 JPY5.5%2,378 JPY2,187 JPY0.72-12.15126.5KOn
19 Jun 20262,523 JPY-2.3%2,360 JPY2,180 JPY0.83-19.3261.7KOn
12 Jun 20262,582 JPY4.9%2,346 JPY2,174 JPY1.17-11.49120.7KOn
5 Jun 20262,463 JPY-5.1%2,330 JPY2,168 JPY1.16-16.7960.4KOn
29 May 20262,596 JPY0.9%2,318 JPY2,162 JPY1.38-12.53363.3KOn
22 May 20262,573 JPY1.6%2,299 JPY2,156 JPY1.35-9.79410.3KOn
15 May 20262,533 JPY1.5%2,285 JPY2,150 JPY0.97-9.00448.6KOn
8 May 20262,495 JPY-1.0%2,272 JPY2,144 JPY0.93-12.75413.3KOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context