CAT1 GER Week ended 07 Aug 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Caterpillar Inc. · Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

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Latest close 729.8 EUR
3.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 3.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 66.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a -12.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 69/100.

Setup score 61 out of 100
Latest Close 729.8 EUR 7 Aug 2026
1W Return 3.0% latest completed week
4W Return -12.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -4.4% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 2.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 53-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 3 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 3.0% Latest completed week; four-week move -12.2%. Indicator stack 100/30 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 69/100 22 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 3.9% above the Trend Line and sits at 66.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 3.0%, after a -12.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 2.8x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.8312-week average 0.95

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.83Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers33 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 3 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -12.2% over four weeks, -4.4% over 12 weeks, and 106.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 53 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W3.0%
4W-12.2%
12W-4.4%
26W20.5%
52W106.1%
Active trend streak53 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.51Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-132.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership14.07Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-67.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 09 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 85%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength37/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 64; rank 1 is best.
Value4/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 97; rank 1 is best.
Quality79/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 22; rank 1 is best.
Momentum95/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Growth30/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 71; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework21/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
35.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
4.7x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
24.9x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
2.1%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
31.5%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
16.5%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
11.2%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
15.2%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
4.3%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-15.4%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-15.5%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
6/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
0.7%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
2.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
2.6x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment69/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 22 relevant articles.

12 positive · 9 neutral · 1 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-21.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility4.9%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+8.7%Week of 19 Jun.
Worst week-9.6%Week of 31 Jul.
Latest week+3.0%Week of 7 Aug.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses3
Recent vol4.9%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.5%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.4% / -2.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape68/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 68/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis81/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.83; 3 reversal markers Factors52/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 21 SVQF21/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 297.0 of 375 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment69/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 22 relevant articles.

Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Could Be 6% Overvalued As AI Demand Lifts Outlook Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
7 Aug 2026729.8 EUR3.0%702.4 EUR398.6 EUR-0.5114.079.8KOn
31 Jul 2026708.8 EUR-9.6%695.6 EUR395.5 EUR0.0314.979.2KOn
24 Jul 2026784.0 EUR2.7%688.7 EUR392.5 EUR0.5831.113.8KOn
17 Jul 2026763.6 EUR-8.1%679.1 EUR388.9 EUR1.1230.784.9KOn
10 Jul 2026831.0 EUR-2.5%669.9 EUR385.5 EUR1.5742.895.1KOn
3 Jul 2026852.2 EUR-4.0%659.1 EUR381.5 EUR1.5544.77453On
26 Jun 2026887.5 EUR2.9%647.8 EUR377.4 EUR1.5460.101.3KOn
19 Jun 2026862.2 EUR8.7%634.7 EUR373.1 EUR1.3356.581.1KOn
12 Jun 2026792.8 EUR-0.7%621.8 EUR368.9 EUR1.1948.791.0KOn
5 Jun 2026798.0 EUR5.9%611.2 EUR365.2 EUR1.1751.59515On
29 May 2026753.4 EUR-1.5%600.5 EUR361.4 EUR1.2643.702.6KOn
22 May 2026765.0 EUR0.2%592.0 EUR357.8 EUR1.4249.562.7KOn
15 May 2026763.4 EUR-0.2%581.5 EUR354.1 EUR1.3757.763.3KOn
8 May 2026765.2 EUR0.4%571.1 EUR350.4 EUR1.1358.454.9KOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context