- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
FRS
ASX
Week ended 04 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Forrestania Resources Limited · Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
Latest close
0.42 AUD
15.1%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 45.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 15.1%, after a 7.7% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
45
out of 100
Latest Close
0.42 AUD
4 Sep 2026
1W Return
15.1%
latest completed week
4W Return
7.7%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-11.6%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
80.8%
42 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
2.0x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 36.26% based on similar historical setup states.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
15.1%
Latest completed week; four-week move 7.7%.
Indicator stack
44/40
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 36.26%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
2 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -12.6% below the Trend Line and sits at 45.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 15.1%, after a 7.7% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 2.0x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.2112-week average 0.37
12-week confirmation
Trend active2/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership6/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.21Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 7.7% over four weeks, -11.6% over 12 weeks, and 100.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year42
Trend breadth80.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.75Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change43.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership1.31Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change126.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 23 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 24%
Model confidence 12%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength93/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 8; rank 1 is best.
Value81/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Quality79/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 22; rank 1 is best.
Momentum80/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 21; rank 1 is best.
Growth81/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- - Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- - Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 0/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- - Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 2 relevant articles.
2 positive · 0 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-42.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.6%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
31 Jul
4 Sep
Weeks higher11 of 2615 weeks finished lower.
Best week+24.7%Week of 15 May.
Worst week-26.4%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+15.1%Week of 4 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains6
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses4
Sharp losses11
Recent vol9.6%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol13.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.4% / -7.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank41 / 100
Group average7.4%
Trend breadth43.0%
Trend43.0%active weekly trend signals
MD59.0%positive activity pressure
RS64.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Other Precious Metals & Mining
4-week rank31 / 85
Group average5.5%
Trend breadth12.9%
Trend12.9%active weekly trend signals
MD52.9%positive activity pressure
RS22.4%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape43/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 43/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis26/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 2/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 6/12.
Activity pressure 0.21; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 36.26%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 36.26% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors83/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 17; Small Cap Core rank 28 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 2 relevant articles.
Forrestania appoints MEGA for Tycho open-pit operations Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 0.42 AUD | 15.1% | 0.4803 AUD | 0.1628 AUD | -0.75 | 1.31 | 32.6M | Off |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 0.365 AUD | -8.8% | 0.483 AUD | 0.1603 AUD | -0.81 | -11.95 | 49.5M | Off |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 0.40 AUD | 3.9% | 0.4863 AUD | 0.1584 AUD | -0.97 | -2.33 | 48.7M | Off |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.385 AUD | -1.3% | 0.4887 AUD | 0.1562 AUD | -1.14 | -5.60 | 18.4M | Off |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.39 AUD | 18.2% | 0.492 AUD | 0.1542 AUD | -1.32 | -5.01 | 30.1M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.33 AUD | -10.8% | 0.4917 AUD | 0.1522 AUD | -1.52 | -16.24 | 3.0M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.37 AUD | -6.3% | 0.4917 AUD | 0.1507 AUD | -1.40 | -3.18 | 5.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.395 AUD | -1.3% | 0.4888 AUD | 0.149 AUD | -1.33 | 4.25 | 3.1M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.40 AUD | -11.1% | 0.4843 AUD | 0.1472 AUD | -1.24 | 6.81 | 6.2M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.45 AUD | 5.9% | 0.4797 AUD | 0.1454 AUD | -1.18 | 21.43 | 5.0M | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.425 AUD | -13.3% | 0.4735 AUD | 0.1432 AUD | -1.07 | 17.93 | 2.4M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.49 AUD | 3.2% | 0.4692 AUD | 0.1411 AUD | -0.91 | 37.52 | 4.0M | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.475 AUD | -7.8% | 0.4617 AUD | 0.1385 AUD | -0.71 | 36.73 | 3.1M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.515 AUD | -9.6% | 0.4525 AUD | 0.1359 AUD | -0.46 | 54.77 | 10.7M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.