- The trend backdrop is active with a 5-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
HMG
ASX
Week ended 21 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Hamelin Gold Limited · Basic Materials · Gold
Latest close
0.26 AUD
40.5%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 106.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 83.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 40.5%, after a 79.3% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100.
Setup score
63
out of 100
Latest Close
0.26 AUD
21 Aug 2026
1W Return
40.5%
latest completed week
4W Return
79.3%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
108.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
48.1%
25 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
3.9x
vs 13-week average
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 35.81% based on similar historical setup states.
- 4 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
40.5%
Latest completed week; four-week move 79.3%.
Indicator stack
44/97
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 35.81%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
50/100
22 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 106.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 83.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 40.5%, after a 79.3% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 3.9x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5212-week average 0.49
12-week confirmation
Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure3/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.52Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers44 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 4 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 79.3% over four weeks, 108.0% over 12 weeks, and 288.1% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 5 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak5 weeks
Active weeks in one year25
Trend breadth48.1%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.28Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change293.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership146.42Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change150.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 23 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025
Field coverage 24%
Model confidence 12%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength52/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 49; rank 1 is best.
Value51/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Quality50/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 51; rank 1 is best.
Momentum51/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Growth51/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 50; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- - Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- - Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- - Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- - Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 0/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- - Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
6 positive · 16 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-13.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility18.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
17 Jul
21 Aug
Weeks higher11 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+45.0%Week of 24 Jul.
Worst week-18.2%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week+40.5%Week of 21 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains10
Modest gains1
Flat weeks3
Modest losses2
Sharp losses10
Recent vol18.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol15.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split23/23Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew16.3% / -8.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAU Basic Materials
4-week rank- / 100
Group average20.9%
Trend breadth34.0%
Trend34.0%active weekly trend signals
MD59.0%positive activity pressure
RS69.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAU Gold
4-week rank2 / 100
Group average24.4%
Trend breadth13.0%
Trend13.0%active weekly trend signals
MD57.0%positive activity pressure
RS48.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape58/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 58/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis53/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.52; 4 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 35.81%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 35.81% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 35; Small Cap Core rank 53 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 22 relevant articles.
Hamelin Gold Ltd (HMG) Stock Forum and Discussion Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | 0.26 AUD | 40.5% | 0.1257 AUD | 0.0859 AUD | 1.28 | 146.42 | 4.5M | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 0.185 AUD | -5.1% | 0.1195 AUD | 0.0848 AUD | 1.09 | 80.59 | 485.3K | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 0.195 AUD | 14.7% | 0.1157 AUD | 0.0843 AUD | 0.59 | 92.09 | 2.5M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 0.17 AUD | 17.2% | 0.1115 AUD | 0.0836 AUD | -0.05 | 77.54 | 2.7M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.145 AUD | 45.0% | 0.1082 AUD | 0.0831 AUD | -0.66 | 58.42 | 4.1M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.10 AUD | 2.0% | 0.1054 AUD | 0.0828 AUD | -1.13 | 10.85 | 0 | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.098 AUD | 8.9% | 0.1041 AUD | 0.0829 AUD | -1.07 | 9.25 | 0 | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.09 AUD | -10.0% | 0.1029 AUD | 0.0829 AUD | -1.03 | 0.62 | 20.0K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.10 AUD | -13.0% | 0.1019 AUD | 0.083 AUD | -0.94 | 13.38 | 78.4K | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.115 AUD | 9.5% | 0.1007 AUD | 0.083 AUD | -0.80 | 30.41 | 12.5K | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.105 AUD | 0.0% | 0.0992 AUD | 0.0828 AUD | -0.70 | 20.24 | 83.6K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.105 AUD | -16.0% | 0.0982 AUD | 0.0827 AUD | -0.47 | 23.27 | 290.2K | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.125 AUD | 0.0% | 0.0971 AUD | 0.0827 AUD | -0.16 | 45.61 | 193.4K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 0.125 AUD | -3.8% | 0.0956 AUD | 0.0826 AUD | -0.10 | 48.06 | 533.1K | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.