- The trend backdrop is active with a 62-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.46% based on similar historical setup states.
LITE
NASDAQ
Week ended 18 Sep 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Lumentum Holdings Inc · Technology · Communication Equipment
Latest close
930.91 USD
0.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 83.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.4%, after a 7.4% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is bullish with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: earnings are due in 43d.
Setup score
67
out of 100
Latest Close
930.91 USD
18 Sep 2026
1W Return
0.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
7.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
13.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
100.0%
52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.2x
vs 13-week average
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- 8 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
0.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move 7.4%.
Indicator stack
100/53
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.46%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Bullish
46/100 conviction; expected move 0.7%.
News sentiment
50/100
69 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
43d
Next report is scheduled for 03 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 83.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.4%, after a 7.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.2x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.5812-week average 0.63
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.58Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers88 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 8 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 7.4% over four weeks, 13.9% over 12 weeks, and 451.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 62 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak62 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.17Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change71.3%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership39.24Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-8.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks strongly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 18 Sep 2026
Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026
Field coverage 94%
Model confidence 94%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength36/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 65; rank 1 is best.
Value2/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 99; rank 1 is best.
Quality67/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
Momentum100/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 1; rank 1 is best.
Growth88/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 13; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 27.7x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 105.0x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 0.4% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 41.7% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 17.4% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 10.0% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 9.2% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 83.2% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 5/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -2.3% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -2.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningBullish
LITE shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.44, expected move of 0.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction46/100
Expected move0.7%
Put/call volume0.44
Insider activity0 / 20
0 acquisitions and 20 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment50/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 69 relevant articles.
29 positive · 28 neutral · 12 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings43dNext report is scheduled for 03 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move0.7%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-14.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility9.0%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
17 Jul
14 Aug
18 Sep
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+24.7%Week of 7 Aug.
Worst week-10.9%Week of 3 Jul.
Latest week+0.4%Week of 18 Sep.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains10
Modest gains3
Flat weeks0
Modest losses6
Sharp losses7
Recent vol9.0%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split31/21Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew10.4% / -5.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Technology
4-week rank25 / 100
Group average1.4%
Trend breadth61.0%
Trend61.0%active weekly trend signals
MD45.0%positive activity pressure
RS55.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Communication Equipment
4-week rank5 / 40
Group average-1.6%
Trend breadth32.5%
Trend32.5%active weekly trend signals
MD20.0%positive activity pressure
RS37.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape68/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 68/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis55/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.58; 8 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.46%Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.46% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors49/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 86 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options66/100LITE shows bullish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.44, expected move of 0.7%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 0.7% Sentiment50/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 69 relevant articles.
Lumentum Holdings Insider Sold Shares Worth $1,355,140, According to a Recent SEC Filing Insiders0 / 200 acquisitions and 20 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings43dNext report is scheduled for 03 Nov 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Research flow3 items2 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 930.91 USD | 0.4% | 830.89 USD | 249.94 USD | -0.17 | 39.24 | 28.5M | On |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 927.03 USD | 5.2% | 822.12 USD | 244.27 USD | -0.42 | 42.92 | 19.3M | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 881.26 USD | -1.5% | 809.97 USD | 238.64 USD | -0.37 | 38.07 | 16.7M | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 895.00 USD | 3.3% | 799.00 USD | 233.30 USD | -0.44 | 43.73 | 19.2M | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 866.71 USD | -6.4% | 782.22 USD | 227.91 USD | -0.61 | 42.98 | 23.7M | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 926.14 USD | 4.0% | 764.64 USD | 222.69 USD | -0.77 | 52.57 | 32.8M | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 890.17 USD | 24.7% | 744.58 USD | 217.06 USD | -1.10 | 52.03 | 24.2M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 713.94 USD | -6.4% | 726.62 USD | 211.67 USD | -1.23 | 31.35 | 25.9M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 762.99 USD | 4.1% | 715.69 USD | 207.43 USD | -1.26 | 44.10 | 20.5M | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 732.82 USD | -8.6% | 703.28 USD | 202.87 USD | -1.16 | 39.42 | 20.6M | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 802.01 USD | 10.1% | 691.24 USD | 198.51 USD | -1.02 | 49.55 | 19.3M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 728.32 USD | -10.9% | 675.32 USD | 193.70 USD | -0.70 | 41.72 | 19.3M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 816.98 USD | -3.9% | 662.09 USD | 189.38 USD | -0.43 | 64.08 | 29.8M | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 850.00 USD | -7.8% | 645.69 USD | 184.51 USD | -0.28 | 67.52 | 24.8M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.