LITE NASDAQ Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Lumentum Holdings Inc · Technology · Communication Equipment

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Latest close 763.0 USD
4.1% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.1%, after a -6.6% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is volatility with 46/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 13d.

Setup score 50 out of 100
Latest Close 763.0 USD 24 Jul 2026
1W Return 4.1% latest completed week
4W Return -6.6% short-term follow-through
12W Return -19.7% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 100.0% 52 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 54-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.20% based on similar historical setup states.
What could go wrong
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • 7 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
  • The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 4.1% Latest completed week; four-week move -6.6%. Indicator stack 100/12 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Positive 55.20% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Volatility 46/100 conviction; expected move 15.6%. News sentiment 56/100 58 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 13d Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 6.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 67.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.1%, after a -6.6% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7112-week average 0.90

12-week confirmation

Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.71Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers77 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 7 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is -6.6% over four weeks, -19.7% over 12 weeks, and 630.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 54 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W4.1%
4W-6.6%
12W-19.7%
26W124.9%
52W630.0%
Active trend streak54 weeks
Active weeks in one year52
Trend breadth100.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-1.27Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-193.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership44.10Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-31.2%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2025 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength38/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 63; rank 1 is best.
Value1/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 100; rank 1 is best.
Quality74/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Momentum100/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 1; rank 1 is best.
Growth35/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 66; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
134.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
23.9x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
108.8x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
1.3%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
37.7%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
12.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
31.5%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
6.1%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
69.0%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
-
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
161.6%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
7/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
-
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
-0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
-0.0%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningVolatility

LITE shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.82, expected move of 15.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction46/100
Expected move15.6%
Put/call volume0.82
Pressure5
Speculation43
Volatility96
Trend agreement94
Open options detail
Insider activity7 / 13

7 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 58 relevant articles.

29 positive · 22 neutral · 7 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move15.6%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-29.7%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility7.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+40.9%Week of 6 Feb.
Worst week-20.3%Week of 6 Mar.
Latest week+4.1%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains13
Modest gains2
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses6
Recent vol7.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol10.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split33/19Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew10.2% / -5.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape59/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 59/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis67/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 12/12.

Activity pressure 0.71; 7 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyPositive 55.20%

Next-week expectancy is positive with a 55.20% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors51/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 70 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options61/100

LITE shows volatility options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.82, expected move of 15.6%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 15.6% Sentiment56/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 58 relevant articles.

Lumentum Holdings Stock (LITE) Opinions on AI Infrastructure Selloff Insiders7 / 13

7 acquisitions and 13 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings13d

Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
24 Jul 2026763.0 USD4.1%715.7 USD207.4 USD-1.2744.1020.5MOn
17 Jul 2026732.8 USD-8.6%703.3 USD202.9 USD-1.1639.4220.6MOn
10 Jul 2026802.0 USD10.1%691.2 USD198.5 USD-1.0349.5519.3MOn
3 Jul 2026728.3 USD-10.9%675.3 USD193.7 USD-0.7041.7219.3MOn
26 Jun 2026817.0 USD-3.9%662.1 USD189.4 USD-0.4364.0829.8MOn
19 Jun 2026850.0 USD-7.8%645.7 USD184.5 USD-0.2867.5224.8MOn
12 Jun 2026921.6 USD6.7%625.9 USD179.4 USD0.2391.7428.1MOn
5 Jun 2026863.7 USD1.0%602.9 USD173.9 USD0.6489.9935.9MOn
29 May 2026855.0 USD-9.7%582.1 USD168.7 USD1.1585.5321.9MOn
22 May 2026946.9 USD-2.5%560.3 USD163.5 USD1.65118.2826.2MOn
15 May 2026970.7 USD7.4%534.7 USD157.8 USD1.72135.2435.2MOn
8 May 2026903.8 USD-4.9%507.9 USD151.9 USD1.73127.4835.9MOn
1 May 2026949.9 USD7.7%482.7 USD146.4 USD1.74162.5227.9MOn
24 Apr 2026881.6 USD-1.4%456.5 USD140.6 USD1.68159.3121.7MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.