- The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
FOSL
VIE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Fossil Group, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Latest close
4.97 EUR
17.3%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 33.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 91.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 17.3%, after a 39.4% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 54/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
69
out of 100
Latest Close
4.97 EUR
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
17.3%
latest completed week
4W Return
39.4%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
42.7%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
98.1%
51 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
4.3x
vs 13-week average
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 41.31% based on similar historical setup states.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- 1 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
17.3%
Latest completed week; four-week move 39.4%.
Indicator stack
61/58
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 41.31%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
54/100
13 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 33.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 91.7% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 17.3%, after a 39.4% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 4.3x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4312-week average 0.51
12-week confirmation
Trend active11/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure1/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership9/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.43Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers11 reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 39.4% over four weeks, 42.7% over 12 weeks, and 242.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year51
Trend breadth98.1%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.01Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change101.4%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership28.03Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1735.4%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.
No published fundamental snapshot is available for this company.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 13 relevant articles.
3 positive · 10 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher13 of 2613 weeks finished lower.
Best week+19.7%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-14.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+17.3%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains11
Modest gains2
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses6
Recent vol8.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol14.8%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.0% / -5.7%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorAT Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average2.3%
Trend breadth45.0%
Trend45.0%active weekly trend signals
MD62.0%positive activity pressure
RS11.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryAT Footwear & Accessories
4-week rank1 / 5
Group average2.4%
Trend breadth60.0%
Trend60.0%active weekly trend signals
MD80.0%positive activity pressure
RS20.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape63/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 63/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis53/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 11/12, activity pressure 1/12, relative leadership 9/12.
Activity pressure 0.43; 1 reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 41.31%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 41.31% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors50/100No published factor snapshot is available yet.
Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 13 relevant articles.
Analysts Offer Insights on Consumer Cyclical Companies: Interface (TILE), Fossil Group (FOSL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 4.97 EUR | 17.3% | 3.73 EUR | 1.92 EUR | 0.01 | 28.03 | 4.3K | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 4.23 EUR | 19.7% | 3.68 EUR | 1.90 EUR | -0.44 | 14.06 | 1.8K | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 3.54 EUR | -0.7% | 3.64 EUR | 1.89 EUR | -0.70 | -3.56 | 2.1K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 3.56 EUR | -0.1% | 3.63 EUR | 1.89 EUR | -0.65 | -0.76 | 1.3K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 3.56 EUR | -4.6% | 3.62 EUR | 1.88 EUR | -0.70 | -1.71 | 2.4K | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 3.73 EUR | -1.1% | 3.61 EUR | 1.87 EUR | -0.72 | 2.47 | 0 | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 3.77 EUR | 1.0% | 3.59 EUR | 1.86 EUR | -0.86 | 7.09 | 0 | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 3.74 EUR | -2.0% | 3.55 EUR | 1.85 EUR | -0.99 | 5.23 | 0 | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 3.81 EUR | 10.2% | 3.49 EUR | 1.84 EUR | -0.93 | 13.21 | 0 | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 3.46 EUR | -1.1% | 3.42 EUR | 1.83 EUR | -0.98 | 7.02 | 0 | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 3.50 EUR | -4.0% | 3.36 EUR | 1.82 EUR | -0.80 | 8.14 | 0 | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 3.64 EUR | 4.7% | 3.30 EUR | 1.82 EUR | -0.51 | 16.86 | 1.2K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 3.48 EUR | -8.1% | 3.25 EUR | 1.81 EUR | -0.17 | 15.32 | 0 | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 3.79 EUR | 0.7% | 3.20 EUR | 1.80 EUR | 0.31 | 26.29 | 0 | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.