- No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.
FLD
NASDAQ
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Fold Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock · Financial Services · Capital Markets
Latest close
0.45 USD
18.4%
latest week
Weekly setup
Weak trend
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -65.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 18.4%, after a -8.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 52/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 51/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 13d.
Setup score
10
out of 100
Latest Close
0.45 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
18.4%
latest completed week
4W Return
-8.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-69.4%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
0.0%
0 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.2x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
18.4%
Latest completed week; four-week move -8.9%.
Indicator stack
0/17
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 23.61%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
52/100 conviction; expected move 571.0%.
News sentiment
51/100
45 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
13d
Next report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is -65.1% below the Trend Line and sits at 2.2% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 18.4%, after a -8.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.2x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.0112-week average 0.04
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.01Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -8.9% over four weeks, -69.4% over 12 weeks, and -89.8% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year0
Trend breadth0.0%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.77Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-243.1%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-82.11Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change1.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 82%
Model confidence 78%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength61/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 40; rank 1 is best.
Value55/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Quality53/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Momentum55/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Growth55/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 46; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -38.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 72.1% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -142.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -54.8% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -56.8% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- - Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- - Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -19.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- -19.1% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -0.5x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
FLD shows volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 571.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Conviction52/100
Expected move571.0%
Put/call volume0.00
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
11 positive · 24 neutral · 10 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move571.0%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-90.4%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility12.4%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher5 of 2619 weeks finished lower.
Best week+24.8%Week of 17 Apr.
Worst week-32.5%Week of 5 Jun.
Latest week+18.4%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains2
Flat weeks2
Modest losses8
Sharp losses11
Recent vol12.4%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol11.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split13/37Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew10.5% / -8.8%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Financial Services
4-week rank- / 100
Group average5.2%
Trend breadth58.0%
Trend58.0%active weekly trend signals
MD88.0%positive activity pressure
RS52.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Capital Markets
4-week rank54 / 84
Group average-4.9%
Trend breadth29.8%
Trend29.8%active weekly trend signals
MD47.6%positive activity pressure
RS19.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape11/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 11/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis19/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.01; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 23.61%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 23.61% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors55/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 91 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options35/100FLD shows volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 571.0%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 571.0% Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 45 relevant articles.
Fold Holdings Q2 Results: Earnings Call Set for August 11 Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings13dNext report is scheduled for 11 Aug 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 0.45 USD | 18.4% | 1.29 USD | 3.07 USD | -0.77 | -82.11 | 1.8M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 0.38 USD | -20.5% | 1.36 USD | 3.11 USD | -0.67 | -85.67 | 1.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.48 USD | -0.7% | 1.44 USD | 3.14 USD | -0.54 | -83.34 | 713.3K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.48 USD | -2.5% | 1.53 USD | 3.18 USD | -0.38 | -83.50 | 875.6K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 0.49 USD | -13.3% | 1.61 USD | 3.22 USD | -0.23 | -83.48 | 3.1M | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 0.57 USD | -2.1% | 1.70 USD | 3.26 USD | -0.06 | -82.40 | 4.6M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 0.58 USD | -10.7% | 1.78 USD | 3.30 USD | 0.12 | -82.17 | 127.3M | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 0.65 USD | -32.5% | 1.86 USD | 3.34 USD | 0.26 | -80.24 | 786.8K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 0.97 USD | -13.0% | 1.95 USD | 3.38 USD | 0.42 | -72.87 | 663.6K | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 1.11 USD | -21.8% | 2.03 USD | 3.41 USD | 0.47 | -68.77 | 674.4K | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1.42 USD | 3.6% | 2.13 USD | 3.45 USD | 0.48 | -60.78 | 715.4K | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 1.37 USD | -6.8% | 2.21 USD | 3.48 USD | 0.46 | -63.06 | 688.1K | Off |
| 1 May 2026 | 1.47 USD | -3.3% | 2.29 USD | 3.52 USD | 0.03 | -59.13 | 453.9K | Off |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 1.52 USD | -2.6% | 2.38 USD | 3.55 USD | -0.42 | -58.21 | 522.1K | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.