ASX Equity Snapshot

AGL Weekly Report

AGL Energy Limited

Interactive chart JSON snapshot Download PDF
Latest week 10 Jul 2026
Exchange ASX
Country AU
Sharemaestro Evidence Rating

Caution

A cross-signal market read combining weekly price structure, proprietary indicators, factors, Patient Capital, options, sentiment, insider activity, earnings risk, research flow, and sector context.

Evidence Score 34 Caution
Executive Read

Top-level conclusion

The strongest supporting evidence is sentiment: Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.

The main constraint is factors: O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

The combined read is defensive, so risk control and evidence of stabilization matter more than headline upside.

Support

Primary driver

Sentiment 53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.

Restraint

Main constraint

Factors 8/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Company Brief

What the company does

AGL Energy Limited, together with its subsidiaries, supplies energy and other essential services in Australia. It operates through in segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in the retailing of electricity, gas, broadband/mobile/voice, and solar and energy efficiency products and services; and selling, marketing, and branding of customer contact, as well as call center operations. It also operates power generation facilities, including coal, gas-fired, wind, hydro, solar, grid-scale batteries, and natural gas storage; and other firming and storage technology. In addition, the company is involved in the development projects. Further, it provides …

Snapshot

What the weekly tape is saying

AGL closed the latest completed week at 8.44 AUD. The 4-week return is -2.9% and the 12-week return is -11.2%. The trend backdrop is inactive, with activity pressure at -1.07. Setup signature: Risk-first tape with a 37/100 composite read.

Latest close 8.44 AUD
Latest week 1.4%
Four-week move -2.9%
Composite read 37/100
Trend backdrop Inactive
Activity pressure No fresh buy
Price vs Trend -7.6%
Volume 0.9x
Setup Cockpit

A compressed read of the whole setup

The radar blends trend persistence, momentum, activity pressure, relative leadership, volume confirmation, and risk control into one weekly cockpit.

Composite setup radar

Scoreboard

Trend 15 Persistence of the active trend backdrop over the last year and current streak.
Momentum 33 Blend of 4-week and 12-week follow-through.
Activity Pressure 32 Latest activity pressure and whether pressure has improved over four weeks.
Relative Leadership 28 Relative leadership and short-term leadership change.
Next-Week Expectancy 50 Historical one-week follow-through read for the latest completed-week setup state.
Volume 39 Participation compared with the 13-week volume baseline.
Smart Money 53 Activity pressure and recent smart-money signal balance.
Risk Control 50 Drawdown and recent weekly volatility pressure.

16-week signal tape

27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul
Weekly return bar Trend backdrop dot Positive activity-pressure dot
Price Action

Price, Trend Line, and Fair Value

Weekly price context with the latest close, trend position, Fair Value gap, drawdown, and 52-week range location.

52-week price path

Price Trend Line Fair Value

Price zone

Close Trend Fair
7.84 AUD 23.5% 10.38 AUD
Range location 23.5% Shows where the latest close sits between the 52-week low and high.
Trend distance -7.6% Price premium or discount versus the weekly Trend Line.
Fair-value gap -9.2% Premium demand or model discount versus Sharemaestro Fair Value.
High-water gap -18.7% Distance from the latest 52-week high.
Momentum

Returns and trend persistence

Return windows separate the latest week from short-term and medium-term follow-through.

Return windows

Latest close 8.44 AUD
Trend breadth 26.9% 14 of 52 weeks active
Volume ratio 0.9x vs 13-week average
1W 1.4%
4W -2.9%
12W -11.2%
26W -5.7%
52W -7.1%

Trend read

Active Streak
0 weeks
52W Active Weeks
14
52W Active Breadth
26.9%
Sector Scope
AU Utilities
Sector Rank
7 of 23
Sector Percentile
72.7%
7 of 23
Peer Context

Sector and industry pulse

Peer breadth helps separate a stock-specific move from a broader group rotation.

AU Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Tracked Peers
3
4W Rank
2 of 3
Avg 1W
-1.5%
Avg 4W
-1.9%
Trend Breadth
66.7%
Positive RS
66.7%
Trend 66.7% active weekly trend signals
MD 66.7% positive activity pressure
RS 66.7% positive relative leadership
AGL in group -2.9% 4-week rank 2 of 3
GNE · ASX 0.5% AGL · ASX -2.9% EWC · ASX -3.4%
Activity Pressure

Pressure, relative leadership, and next-week expectancy

Activity pressure and relative leadership show whether buying pressure and group strength are confirming the price move.

Dynamics path

Activity pressure Relative leadership

Pressure map

Activity pressure
Relative leadership
Pressure -1.07 Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change 21.5% Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership -6.37 Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change -39.8% Four-week change in relative leadership.
Next-week expectancy Undecided 53.60% historical one-week setup read.
Indicator Analysis

Smart money, activity pressure, trend signals, and next-week expectancy

Recent confirmation shows whether the latest setup is supported by activity pressure, trend quality, relative leadership, and the short-term historical expectancy read.

Activity pressure path

Activity pressure Latest 0.23 12W avg 0.54

Next-week expectancy over time

Positive / negative next-week read Current Undecided 53.60%

12-week confirmation

Trend active 4/12 Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure 3/12 Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership 3/12 Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure 0.23 Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals 0 Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers 0 No reversal markers

Smart money activity

Support markers
0
Risk markers
0
Pressure positive weeks
7
Score input
50/100

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

Volume

Participation and confirmation

Volume tells us whether the latest weekly move is being confirmed by unusual participation.

Volume and return confirmation

Participation read

Participation 0.9x Latest volume versus the 13-week average.
Baseline 10.1M 13-week average volume.
One-year base 14.1M 52-week average volume.
Latest 9.5M Most recent completed week.
Risk Anatomy

Volatility, downside weeks, and return shape

A compact risk profile shows whether the move is steady, volatile, or being driven by sharp one-week jumps.

26-week return distribution

Return shape

Strong gains 2
Modest gains 10
Flat weeks 0
Modest losses 9
Sharp losses 5
Recent vol 2.3% 13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol 4.0% 52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split 24/26 Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew 2.8% / -2.7% Average positive week versus average negative week.
Cross-App Evidence

Value, flow, sentiment, events, and research context

These cards convert the rest of Sharemaestro into a compact evidence trail, with direct drilldowns for deeper research.

Options and sentiment

Sentiment
53/100
Articles
27 relevant

Earnings, insiders, and research flow

Earnings
-
Insiders
-
News
0 articles
Market Watch
0 posts
Evidence Matrix

Scorecard by research pillar

Weekly tape 36/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 36/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis 31/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 4/12, activity pressure 3/12, relative leadership 3/12.

Activity pressure 0.23; No reversal markers Factors 8/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 11 Patient Capital Quiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment 53/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 27 relevant articles.

AGL Energy Stock Leads 3 Australian Essential Service Shares Facing Policy Pressure Insiders 50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings 50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.

Latest Sharemaestro research

  • No recent research articles are stored for this ticker.

Latest Market Watch posts

  • No recent Market Watch posts are stored for this ticker.
Context

Classification, opportunities, risks, and watch points

Top-level read across company classification, constructive evidence, caution points, and the next things that matter.

Classification

Exchange
ASX
Country
AU
Sector
Utilities
Industry
Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Currency
AUD
Market Cap
5.8B

Opportunity signals

  • No strong opportunity cluster is confirmed yet; monitor trend and activity pressure.

Risk signals

  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.

Watch next

  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Weekly Tape

Recent completed weeks

The latest weekly rows behind the report snapshot.

Week Close Return Trend Fair Value Pressure Leadership Volume Signal
10 Jul 2026 8.44 AUD 1.4% 9.13 AUD 9.30 AUD -1.07 -6.37 9.5M Off
3 Jul 2026 8.32 AUD -1.2% 9.16 AUD 9.31 AUD -1.08 -8.27 14.0M Off
26 Jun 2026 8.42 AUD -1.9% 9.18 AUD 9.31 AUD -1.14 -6.61 9.9M Off
19 Jun 2026 8.58 AUD -1.3% 9.21 AUD 9.32 AUD -1.26 -5.76 10.4M Off
12 Jun 2026 8.69 AUD 1.9% 9.22 AUD 9.32 AUD -1.36 -4.55 1.2M Off
5 Jun 2026 8.53 AUD -0.4% 9.23 AUD 9.33 AUD -1.22 -4.69 11.5M Off
29 May 2026 8.56 AUD -4.6% 9.23 AUD 9.33 AUD -1.03 -5.81 3.8M Off
22 May 2026 8.97 AUD -1.3% 9.25 AUD 9.32 AUD -0.56 -0.74 10.4M Off
15 May 2026 9.09 AUD 0.3% 9.25 AUD 9.31 AUD -0.14 0.66 11.5M On
8 May 2026 9.06 AUD -6.5% 9.23 AUD 9.31 AUD 0.12 -1.22 13.5M On
1 May 2026 9.69 AUD 1.7% 9.22 AUD 9.30 AUD 0.35 5.37 12.7M On
24 Apr 2026 9.53 AUD 0.3% 9.19 AUD 9.28 AUD 0.47 2.70 13.7M On
17 Apr 2026 9.50 AUD -1.8% 9.17 AUD 9.27 AUD 0.56 0.26 9.7M On
10 Apr 2026 9.67 AUD -2.5% 9.14 AUD 9.25 AUD 0.57 1.55 8.0M On

Evidence rating

The evidence rating is the top-level Sharemaestro read. It blends market structure, trend evidence, activity pressure, value and quality context, options pressure, news tone, events, and research flow into a single directional summary.

Positive means the evidence stack is supportive. Neutral means the evidence is mixed or still forming. Caution or negative means the balance of evidence is less supportive and risk control matters more.

Weekly tape

The weekly tape is a completed-week view. It focuses on whether price, trend, activity, relative leadership, volume, and risk are confirming each other rather than reacting to a single noisy session.

Evidence scorecard

The scorecard separates the report into research pillars. A high score is supportive, a low score is restrictive, and neutral means that pillar is either balanced or not yet carrying enough evidence.

The purpose is not to force a trade call. It shows which parts of the evidence stack are helping, which parts are restraining, and where to drill down.

Setup cockpit

The cockpit compresses the broad setup into a radar and scoreboard. It is designed to show whether the current move has breadth across trend, activity, leadership, participation, and risk control.

Price context

Price context asks whether the stock is moving with or against its weekly structure. The Trend Line is the directional backdrop, Fair Value is the current valuation reference point, and the range map shows where price sits inside its recent trading range.

Pressure and next-week expectancy

Activity pressure looks for evidence that participation is supporting the move. Relative leadership compares the stock against its market backdrop. Next-week expectancy is a historical one-week follow-through read for similar setup states; it is not a broad trend call.

Indicator analysis

This section looks at whether the latest move is supported by the internal Sharemaestro indicator stack. The emphasis is on confirmation, persistence, and risk markers, not a single isolated reading.

Options pressure

Options pressure shows whether the options market is leaning bullish, bearish, mixed, or volatility-focused. It is supporting evidence only: options can confirm a setup, reveal disagreement, or highlight event risk.

Options involve substantial risk and can lose value rapidly. This report is educational market research, not investment or trading advice.