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TWO · Equity · completed-week research

5425 Technicals

Taiwan Semiconductor Co., Ltd.

Technology Semiconductors

Week ending14 August 2026
+3.6%
Open
82.70
High
93.20
Low
82.70
Close
85.50 TWD
Price-technical state Rotational Price structure only · 260 completed observations · through 2026-08-14
Price structureRotationalcompleted-week alignment
Momentum51.4Positive
Risk pressure18.2%Elevated
Trend quality35.8Directional

Market Dynamics

What is happening beneath the price?

Price shows the result. Market Dynamics shows whether the underlying support is strengthening or weakening.

Market Dynamics Report
Underlying support lags price

Market Dynamics is weaker than the current price position

Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.

What it means

This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.

Current tape relationshipPrice response ahead of support

Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero.

Price locationBetween zones

Price is travelling between the two major positioning zones.

Latest positioning marker29 Aug 2025

The green dot marks a confirmed recovery where institutional positioning is most plausible.

Market Dynamics confirmationLagging price

Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets.

Chart readingPrice is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.

Weekly close Supportive Market Dynamics Cautious Market Dynamics Accumulation zone Distribution zone Positioning recovery Distribution rollover Price / pressure gap

What it means for 5425

The current reading in four steps

Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.

1
NowEasier this week

Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero.

2
Recent directionWeakened over four weeks

Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path.

3
Price responsePrice is ahead of the underlying support

Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets.

4
Previous cases52.4% moved lower

After 12 weeks across 21 cases. Average move: 3.1%.

What strengthens this viewThis is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.What would change itReassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.

What happened before

How this ticker behaved in similar conditions

Zone visits are counted once and followed through completed weekly closes. Open cases remain separate.

Price relationship Meaningful relationship
Same-week correlation
0.36
Direction agreed
46.4%
Completed comparisons
252
After accumulation3 distinct visits
4 weeks33.3% higher3 outcomes 12 weeks0.0% higher3 outcomes 26 weeks66.7% higher3 outcomes

Average time before leaving the zone: 9.7 weeks.

After distribution1 distinct visit
4 weeks100.0% lower1 outcome 12 weeksRecord building0 outcomes 26 weeksRecord building0 outcomes

Average time before leaving the zone: 2.0 weeks.

When the two readings agreed or differed

What usually happened next

These cases compare price direction with Market Dynamics and show how large disagreements were resolved.

Price higher · Market Dynamics positive 50.0% were higher

Average 12-week move: -2.4% from 18 completed cases.

Price lower · Market Dynamics negative 40.9% were lower

Average 12-week move: 11.6% from 22 completed cases.

Price higher · Market Dynamics cautious Average pullback 10.7%

52.4% were lower after 12 weeks. The deepest pullback arrived after 7.4 weeks on average.

Price cautious · Market Dynamics positive Average recovery 12.8%

50.0% were higher after 12 weeks. The strongest recovery arrived after 6.5 weeks on average.

How to use the reading

Strategy observations from this ticker's own record

The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.

Divergence control
Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags

In this ticker's completed record, 52.4% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.1% across 21 cases.

ApproachUse the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.

Review the case whenReassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.

Zone positioning
Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation

After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 9.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.

ApproachBuild the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.

Review the case whenA failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure.

Disagreement playbook
Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline

Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.7% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.4 weeks on average.

ApproachAvoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.

Review the case whenThe warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way.

Historical outcomes describe this ticker's completed record. They do not make the next move certain and are not trading instructions.

Adaptive evidence set

The charts that matter to this tape now

This is not a fixed indicator wall. The price anchor is retained for context; the remaining panels are selected dynamically according to the conditions visible in this ticker.

104 observations displayed
6 views selected
Price structureRotationalcompleted-week alignment
Momentum51.4Positive
Risk pressure18.2%Elevated
Trend quality35.8Directional
Range position39%location inside observed range
Adaptive set6 viewsselected for the current tape

Price architecture

Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope

Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.

Why this view is active

Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.

Relative leadership

Strength versus the research benchmark

Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.

Why this view is active

Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.

Price impulse

Acceleration, deceleration and rollover

The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.

Why this view is active

Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of direction.

Path risk

Drawdown and recovery pressure

Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.

Why this view is active

Selected because the current recovery or drawdown path is central to the tape.

Trend quality

Directional strength and control

Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.

Why this view is active

Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.

Risk geometry

Range pressure and compression

Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.

Why this view is active

Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.

Sharemaestro tape intelligence

What the gauges support now

One assessment resolves price structure and Market Dynamics. The supporting views show the control, force, direction and confidence behind it.

100/100 evidence depth
observed participation included
Market Dynamics has stronger support The gauges support the downward view

The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.

SM Consensus Gauge-9.5

Market Dynamics has stronger support

SM Control Gauge-8.2

Control support is limited

SM Force Gauge-3.9

Commitment is limited

SM Direction Gauge-20.6

Downward follow-through

SM Confirmation Gauge49/100

Qualified support

SM consensus path · Market Dynamics display window

SM Consensus Gauge against price

The bars show the direction and strength of the resolved assessment. Completed price is retained as context.

Latest -9.5
Market Dynamics has stronger support
Supportive consensus Cautious consensus Weekly close Neutral

Control

SM Control Gauge

Shows whether buyer or seller control supports the current assessment and whether that support is strengthening or easing.

Current controlControl support is limitedRecent pathControl support is easingLatest 12 months
Buyer controlSeller controlBalanced

Commitment

SM Force Gauge

Shows the strength of market commitment behind the current assessment.

Current forceCommitment is limitedRecent pathCommitment is easingLatest 12 months
Positive forceNegative forceActivity intensity

Direction and follow-through

SM Direction Gauge

Shows the directional follow-through behind the current assessment and whether it is established or still developing.

Current directionDownward follow-throughFollow-throughUnsettledLatest 12 months
Advancing directionDeclining directionFollow-through

Assessment strength

SM Confirmation Gauge

Shows how firmly the current assessment is supported. Greater assessment risk reduces the weight of the conclusion.

ConfirmationQualified supportAssessment riskContainedLatest 12 months
SM Confirmation GaugeAssessment risk
Interpretation boundary

These charts describe completed market observations and can lag or reverse. The SM gauges provide one confirmation layer; differences in the underlying evidence reduce confirmation rather than create another competing view. Market Dynamics is proprietary Sharemaestro output: this page presents only its published values and plain-language context. Its construction and inputs remain private.

Evidence context