What does the Market Dynamics strategy report measure?

It measures complete positioning cycles, confirmation and divergence phases, and repeat outcomes at later price levels.

How is accumulation used in the study?

Accumulation is treated as a window for preparing a long case. Price confirmation is still required before the condition becomes an actionable entry.

How is distribution used in the study?

Distribution is treated first as a warning to review exposure and protect gains. A short case still requires confirmed price weakness and defined risk.

Taiwan completed market record

Market Dynamics strategy report

This report compares Market Dynamics with completed price outcomes through positioning, confirmation, participation, warning and exit.

Cycle results Strategy sequence Public results

Taiwan equities completed cycle record

Accumulation and distribution outcomes

These figures compare each completed accumulation-to-distribution cycle and each completed distribution-to-accumulation cycle. Open cycles remain separate.

Accumulation to distribution97.8%finished higher across 771 completed cycles

Distribution to accumulation57.3%finished lower across 1,397 completed cycles

The figures change with the selected universe. This report contains Taiwan instruments only.

Report coverage

Taiwan equities and ETFs

Accumulation and distribution can recur at different price levels. Long positioning and downside outcomes are measured separately. Results from other countries are excluded.

Strategy application

How Market Dynamics is used with price

Market Dynamics shows the condition beneath price. Price confirms the move. Completed outcomes show how that sequence performed.

Long positioning

Accumulation identifies where a long setup begins

Across completed Taiwan equities cycles, 97.8% finished higher before distribution completed the cycle. Use accumulation to prepare a possible long position, then require price confirmation before committing more capital.

98.8% of later completed cycles also finished higher.

Downside positioning

Distribution identifies where downside risk is rising

57.3% of completed distribution cycles finished lower. The average rise before reversal was 131.5%. Distribution is therefore used first to review exposure and protect gains. A short still requires price weakness and defined risk.

90.8% of later completed cycles also finished lower.

PrepareUse accumulation or improving Market Dynamics to identify a possible long setup.

ConfirmDemand a price response before treating the underlying condition as an entry.

ParticipateStay with a supported move while price and Market Dynamics continue to reinforce it.

ProtectUse distribution or unsupported extension to review exposure; act when price confirms the warning.

Positioning outcomes

Outcomes after accumulation and distribution

Each cycle begins when an outer zone first appears and ends only when the opposing zone is reached. The zones move with the developing market relationship; they are not fixed prices. A long stay is one case, not a new result every week.

Long positioning

Accumulation to distribution

97.8%finished higher95% range 96.5–98.6%

This measures whether price finished higher between each distinct accumulation cycle and the subsequent distribution cycle.

Completed cycles771 Still in progress1,031 Average gross long reward62.1% Median gross long reward52.9% Average best advance63.4% Average adverse move14.1% Gross reward / adverse move4.42 Average time before leaving accumulation6.9 weeks Average time to best advance59.9 weeks Average cycle duration72.6 weeks

Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?

Instruments with repeat cycles79Later completed cycles85Later cycles higher98.8%Average later reward76.9%

Advance reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time

+5%83.6%95% 81.8–85.3%12.1 weeks4.0 weeks

+10%73.4%95% 71.3–75.4%18.4 weeks8.0 weeks

+20%60.2%95% 57.9–62.4%29.1 weeks18.0 weeks

+30%48.4%95% 46.1–50.7%36.8 weeks27.0 weeks

Depth and patience. The bars show how often each advance was reached; the line shows the median number of weeks required.

Practical application

Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window

73.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 60.2% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).

Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.
The condition lasted 6.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 59.9 weeks on average.
Later completed cycles resolved higher 98.8% of the time across 85 repeat cycles.
Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 14.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.

Downside and short positioning

Distribution to accumulation

57.3%finished lower95% range 54.7–59.9%

This asks how often distribution became a completed downside reversal, how far price fell and how long the move took before accumulation returned.

Completed cycles1,397 Still in progress1,120 Average gross short opportunity-10.9% Median gross short opportunity8.6% Average deepest reversal21.4% Average rise before reversal131.5% Gross reward / adverse move-0.08 Average time before leaving distribution5.6 weeks Average time to deepest reversal50.3 weeks Average cycle duration159.6 weeks

Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?

Instruments with repeat cycles128Later completed cycles131Later cycles lower90.8%Average later opportunity30.1%

Price reversal reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time

−5%74.1%95% 72.3–75.7%13.3 weeks4.0 weeks

−10%58.7%95% 56.8–60.6%19.1 weeks7.0 weeks

−20%37.6%95% 35.8–39.5%34.0 weeks19.0 weeks

−30%21.7%95% 20.1–23.3%43.1 weeks29.0 weeks

Depth and patience. The bars show how often each reversal was reached; the line shows the median number of weeks required.

Practical application

Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry

58.7% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 37.6% reached 20% (median 19 weeks).

Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.
Price left distribution after 5.6 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 50.3 weeks on average.
Later completed cycles resolved lower 90.8% of the time across 131 repeat cycles.
Price rose by 131.5% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.

Move-size rates include every cycle observed to date; an open cycle that has not yet reached a move is retained in the denominator. Finished-higher and finished-lower rates use completed cycles only, with open cycles shown separately. Distribution measures gross historical downside opportunity, not a realised short strategy: borrow availability, financing, dividends, spread, slippage, exits and risk controls are not included.

Strategy sequence

Market Dynamics and price through a complete position

Market Dynamics is not a one-week forecast. It is a changing record of whether underlying market behaviour supports price. Each phase below is counted once from its first observation until the relationship changes.

01Underlying conditionMarket Dynamics improves before price fully responds.Watch

02ConfirmationPrice responds while the underlying support remains positive.Enter or add selectively

03Supported advancePrice and Market Dynamics reinforce the same upward case.Hold

04Unsupported extensionPrice advances while Market Dynamics no longer confirms it.Review risk

05Confirmed weaknessPrice weakness and Market Dynamics point in the same direction.Protect capital

06RepairMarket Dynamics improves again and a new confirmation can form.Reassess

Underlying condition

Read condition before direction

Market Dynamics can improve while price is still weak, or deteriorate while price is still rising. The difference shows whether the visible price move has underlying support.

Confirmation

Let price decide when the case becomes actionable

A supportive underlying condition is preparation. A price response turns it into participation. This avoids treating every positive or negative reading as an immediate trade.

Management

Stay patient while support remains; reassess when it separates

Agreement supports patience. Divergence is a prompt to review conviction, position size and risk. The next price response determines whether the gap repairs or resolves through reversal.

Unsupported extensionTighten confirmation and risk checks

Price running ahead of Market Dynamics

Completed phases49902 Average duration2.6 weeks Average price move+1.1% Finished lower56.8%

Early foundationWatch for price confirmation

Foundation improving before price

Completed phases47758 Average duration2.5 weeks Average price move+0.3% Finished higher54.9%

Confirmed weaknessRemain defensive until repair appears

Price weakness confirmed by Market Dynamics

Completed phases52025 Average duration4.0 weeks Average price move+0.9% Finished lower33.7%

Supported advanceHold while support remains intact

Price advance supported by Market Dynamics

Completed phases49270 Average duration4.2 weeks Average price move+2.7% Finished higher34.4%

These are completed relationship phases, not repeated weekly observations. "Unsupported" means price was ahead of the measured Market Dynamics support; it does not claim that price was manipulated.

Research limits

What is included and excluded

The report includes completed positioning cycles, losses and unresolved cases alongside successful outcomes.

Point in time

Every comparison uses only the completed information available on that date. Later observations do not rewrite an earlier state.

Recurring cycles

A multi-week stay is one case. After the opposing condition is reached, a later accumulation or distribution begins a new cycle at the market level then in force.

Open cases

A current positioning cycle remains open until the opposing zone is reached. It does not count as a completed success.

Country control

The Taiwan result contains Taiwan instruments only. Other countries are published as separate studies.

Implementation costs

Positioning outcomes are gross historical moves. They exclude costs, spreads, slippage and tax. Downside results also exclude borrow and financing costs.

Research boundary

Only outcomes and validation results are public. The construction of Market Dynamics remains proprietary.

Historical evidence cannot guarantee future performance or establish causality. Survivorship, listing history, changing market regimes, execution costs and data revisions can affect real-world results. The verdict changes only when completed outcomes change the record.