Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
CURRENCIES ยท Currency ยท United States
USD/MXN
CurrenciesForeign Exchange
Last updated
21 Aug 2026
Exchange
Currencies ยท CURRENCIES
Sector
Currencies
Industry
Foreign Exchange
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
Not available
Fair value reference
18.32
Next-week expectancy
Undecided ยท 45.09%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-08-21, USD/MXN fell 2.21%, moving from 17.28 to 16.89. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -4.68 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.17 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 45.09% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
21 Aug 2026
Latest Close
16.89
12-Week Change
-2.21%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 45.09%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
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Weekly Price
Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Chart Panels
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Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Current weekly interpretationFresh downside break with weak close
The latest close finished below the recent completed price structure. Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Full context ยท Unstable
Current structureFresh downside break
The latest close finished below the recent completed price structure.
Trend relationshipBelow a falling trend
Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 16.97 ยท Resistance 17.52
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
The negative weekly move attracted clearly elevated participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceActivity proxyTypical activity proxyPublished event
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-0.79%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterWeak close
Price declined and finished in the lower part of the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedNear the weekly low
The close finished at 8% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityUnstable
Frequent recent changes in direction reduce confidence in the current price path.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
The latest close finished below the recent completed price structure.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is below a falling trend; participation is strong negative participation, and path quality is unstable.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history6% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-31.8%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+2.9%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical0.9ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
Latest week
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
4 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
23 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateBelow accepted value
52-week position
0.8%
Low to high
Accepted price
17.35
Latest versus accepted: -2.63%
Fitted direction
Falling
-0.18% per week
Range pressure
17/100
Lower pressure
Range condition
Normal
1.00ร normal range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Resistance17.13
From price
1.4%
Evidence
83/100
Touches
6
Resistance17.35
From price
2.7%
Evidence
87/100
Touches
3
Resistance18.51
From price
9.5%
Evidence
84/100
Touches
5
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionBelow accepted value
Price is at 0.8% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionFalling
The fitted centre line is moving -0.18% per week.
Range pressureLower pressure
The current pressure reading is 17/100; 50 is balanced.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Current Smart Money readA repair is developing beneath price
The latest path is improving, but broader confirmation is not yet complete.
Momentum 0.26 ยท Improving
Trend qualityRepairing
The current trend state has persisted for 71 completed weeks; visible confirmation is repairing.
Momentum pathSoft ยท Improving
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsNormal
No recent reversal warning is present in the completed-week record.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
Momentum is improving, providing an early sign of repair beneath the current price path.
What would improve it
Broader agreement between price, trend and the completed-week support state would strengthen the case.
What could weaken it
There is no fresh positive event marker, so the current reading depends on continued confirmation rather than a new signal.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
No published Smart Money event marker appears in the completed history currently shown.
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Current Price Cycle readNegative pressure remains established and weakening
Price is holding a weak market-perception position. Negative pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
-7.79% ยท Negative ยท Weakening
Market positionNegative
Price is holding a weak market-perception position.
Pressure directionWeakening
Negative pressure is becoming more forceful across the recent completed path.
Trend qualityMixed
Recent pressure is moving unevenly and needs further confirmation.
Risks and warningsWeakness remains active
Negative pressure is established and has not yet begun to repair.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
There is limited positive pressure; the reading needs improvement before it offers dependable support.
What would improve it
A sustained recovery toward balance, followed by positive pressure, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
Negative pressure is established and has not yet begun to repair.
What to watch next
The latest path is weakening with mixed trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionLower 20% of history
The latest reading is weaker than 80% of completed observations.
State persistence37 completed weeks
The current negative state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 98 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 49% of the time; the typical move was -0.1%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
8 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
24 weeks ago
Weakness established
The completed reading moved below balance into negative pressure.
40 weeks ago
Positive pressure established
The completed reading moved from weakness into positive pressure.
42 weeks ago
Weakness established
The completed reading moved below balance into negative pressure.
49 weeks ago
Positive pressure established
The completed reading moved from weakness into positive pressure.
55 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Shows price against its completed-week volume-weighted references, changes in control and the levels that would confirm or weaken the current reading.
Current controlSeller control developing
Price is below the core VWAP, which is broadly flat. 88% of recent weighted activity has been accepted below it.
27/100 pressure
ControlSeller control developing
Pressure 27/100 and -15.4 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack0 of 6 below price
3 references converge near 17.48: 26-week VWAP, Year VWAP, High-activity anchor.
Acceptance88% below
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Core direction-0.0% / week
Four-week direction; change in pace +0.1 pts.
Stretch3.2 normal ranges below
Price is -3.3% from the core VWAP.
Persistence4 completed weeks
Price has remained below the core VWAP.
Price, VWAP structure and control transfers
Where control changed
156 completed weeks ยท Reported weekly volume
Weekly close13-week VWAP26-week VWAP52-week VWAPHigh-activity anchorNormal VWAP rangePositive transferNegative transfer
Seller control50 ยท contestedBuyer control
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
Seller control, but extended
Seller control, but extended
The VWAP structure is weak, but price is stretched far enough below the core level for snap-back risk to matter.
Price and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
VWAP cluster present
3 references converge near 17.48: 26-week VWAP, Year VWAP, High-activity anchor.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation17.23
A completed close above Swing high with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area17.23
Swing high at 17.23, 2.0% above the latest close.
Weakening level17.48
A completed loss of the core VWAP with pressure below 40 would strengthen seller control.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
Swing high17.23
+1.98% from close
13-week VWAP17.28
+2.27% from close
26-week VWAP17.48
+3.44% from close
Year VWAP17.48
+3.45% from close
High-activity anchor17.48
+3.48% from close
52-week VWAP17.76
+5.10% from close
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 0%Above price 100%
2%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท DX-Y.NYBWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -25.3 points.
Control is contested ยท 52/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim40% favourable
Events
5
Median 4w
-2.79%
Median 13w
-2.26%
Typical best
+1.54%
Typical worst
-3.82%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss60% favourable
Events
5
Median 4w
-0.54%
Median 13w
-5.84%
Typical best
+2.55%
Typical worst
-5.97%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states59 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
36%
Median 4w
-0.87%
Positive after 13w
22%
Median 13w
-1.98%
Best / worst 13w
+11.7% / -7.0%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Current SMI readUnderlying support remains weak and requires repair
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.09 ยท Weak
Current stateWeak ยท 0.09
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionHolding steady
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceEstablished
64 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipConfirming price weakness
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.09 ยท Weak
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have produced mixed historical outcomes
Across 107 comparable completed observations, 41.1% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was -1.2%.
Comparable observations
107
Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
41.1%
After 13 completed weeks
Median move
-1.2%
Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+7.8 pts
Difference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
21 Aug 2026
Latest Close
16.89
12-Week Change
-2.21%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 45.09%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Below
Relative Strength
-4.68
Market Dynamics
0.17
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-08-21, USD/MXN fell 2.21%, moving from 17.28 to 16.89. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and below Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -4.68 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.17 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 45.09% based on similar historical setup states.
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