- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
PAG
LSE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Paragon Banking Group PLC · Financial Services · Mortgage Finance
Latest close
827.0 GBP
-1.2%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.2%, after a 3.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 51/100.
Setup score
48
out of 100
Latest Close
827.0 GBP
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
-1.2%
latest completed week
4W Return
3.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
12.8%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
15.4%
8 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.3x
vs 13-week average
- The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
- Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
- Latest weekly return ranks in the weaker part of its sector group.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-1.2%
Latest completed week; four-week move 3.9%.
Indicator stack
8/80
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
51/100
12 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.6% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -1.2%, after a 3.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.3x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.3712-week average 0.15
12-week confirmation
Trend active0/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.37Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 3.9% over four weeks, 12.8% over 12 weeks, and -7.0% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year8
Trend breadth15.4%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.07Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change132.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-7.66Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change23.5%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is inexpensive relative to peers.
Factor week 09 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026
Field coverage 67%
Model confidence 62%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength39/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 62; rank 1 is best.
Value81/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 20; rank 1 is best.
Quality6/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Momentum10/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 91; rank 1 is best.
Growth42/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 59; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 8.3x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 2.8x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- -73.3% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- - Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- - Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- -72.1% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- - Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 9.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- 3.9% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -117.2% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 5.5% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 8.7% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 14.2% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- - Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment51/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 12 relevant articles.
1 positive · 11 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-11.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility2.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
6 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+6.3%Week of 10 Apr.
Worst week-10.0%Week of 13 Mar.
Latest week-1.2%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains1
Modest gains13
Flat weeks0
Modest losses8
Sharp losses4
Recent vol2.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.4%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split25/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.7% / -2.6%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorGB Financial Services
4-week rank32 / 100
Group average2.1%
Trend breadth60.0%
Trend60.0%active weekly trend signals
MD68.0%positive activity pressure
RS53.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryGB Mortgage Finance
4-week rank2 / 4
Group average6.9%
Trend breadth0.0%
Trend0.0%active weekly trend signals
MD100.0%positive activity pressure
RS0.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape43/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 43/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis26/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 0/12.
Activity pressure 0.37; No reversal markers Factors33/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 6; Small Cap Core rank 22 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Sentiment51/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 12 relevant articles.
REG - Paragon Banking Grp - Director/PDMR Shareholding Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 827.0 GBP | -1.2% | 796.9 GBP | 749.5 GBP | 1.07 | -7.66 | 2.1M | Off |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 837.0 GBP | 2.6% | 797.9 GBP | 747.5 GBP | 1.08 | -6.74 | 2.3M | Off |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 815.5 GBP | 1.4% | 798.4 GBP | 745.6 GBP | 0.84 | -8.62 | 1.6M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 804.5 GBP | 1.1% | 800.7 GBP | 743.8 GBP | 0.67 | -9.34 | 2.0M | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 796.0 GBP | 2.9% | 802.1 GBP | 741.9 GBP | 0.46 | -10.01 | 3.1M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 773.5 GBP | 1.3% | 801.8 GBP | 740.0 GBP | 0.03 | -14.60 | 150.4K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 763.6 GBP | 1.6% | 804.1 GBP | 738.4 GBP | -0.29 | -14.98 | 286.7K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 751.3 GBP | 0.9% | 805.6 GBP | 736.8 GBP | -0.44 | -15.77 | 1.2M | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 744.9 GBP | 2.1% | 807.8 GBP | 735.7 GBP | -0.52 | -17.86 | 306.3K | Off |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 729.7 GBP | -4.8% | 809.5 GBP | 734.5 GBP | -0.61 | -19.27 | 447.1K | Off |
| 29 May 2026 | 766.4 GBP | 2.6% | 812.8 GBP | 733.0 GBP | -0.50 | -16.15 | 1.5M | Off |
| 22 May 2026 | 746.9 GBP | 1.9% | 815.7 GBP | 731.2 GBP | -0.67 | -19.25 | 3.5M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 732.9 GBP | -1.7% | 818.4 GBP | 729.6 GBP | -0.85 | -19.25 | 2.2M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 745.9 GBP | -0.3% | 822.2 GBP | 728.2 GBP | -0.80 | -18.68 | 4.1M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.